Toward Improved Model Capacities for Assessment of Climate Impacts on Coastal Bentho-Pelagic Food Webs and Ecosystem Services

Global climate change is a key driver of change in coastal waters with clear effects on biological communities and marine ecosystems. Human activities in combination with climate change exert a tremendous pressure on marine ecosystems and threaten their integrity, structure, and functioning. The protection of these ecosystems is a major target of the 14th United Nations sustainable development goal “Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.” However, due to the complexity of processes and interactions of stressors, the status assessment of ecosystems remains a challenge. Holistic food web models, including biological and environmental data, could provide a suitable basis to assess ecosystem health. Here, we review climate change impacts on different trophic levels of coastal ecosystems ranging from plankton to ecologically and economically important fish and shellfish species. Furthermore, we show different food web model approaches, their advantages and limitations. To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need both a detailed knowledge base of each trophic level and a holistic modeling approach for assessment and prediction of future scenarios on food web-scales. A new model approach with a seamless coupling of physical ocean models and food web models could provide a future tool for guiding ecosystem-based management.

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Combining mesocosms with models to unravel the effects of global warming and ocean acidification on temperate marine ecosystems

10.32942/osf.io/zs78v ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hadayet Ullah ◽

Ivan Nagelkerken ◽

Silvan U. Goldenberg ◽

Damien Fordham

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Change ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Food Web ◽

Marine Ecosystems ◽

Ocean Warming ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Individual Species ◽

Combined Effects ◽

Biodiversity Change

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modelling approach (Ecosim) with a community-level mesocosm experiment to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, and fisheries exploitation, on a temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm enabled important physiological and behavioural responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. We show that under current-day rates of exploitation, warming and ocean acidification will benefit most species in higher trophic levels (e.g. mammals, birds, demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fish, but these benefits will be reduced or lost when these physical stressors co-occur. We show that increases in exploitation will, in most instances, suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at high-trophic levels. Species diversity at the trailing edges of species distributions is likely to decline in the face of ocean warming, acidification and exploitation.We showcase how multi-level mesocosm food web experiments can be used to directly inform dynamic food web models, enabling the ecological processes that drive the responses of marine ecosystems to scenarios of global change to be captured in model projections and their individual and combined effects to be teased apart. Our approach for blending theoretical and empirical results from mesocosm experiments with computational models will provide resource managers and conservation biologists with improved tools for forecasting biodiversity change and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

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Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-19856-w ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Marina Andrijevic ◽

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽

Tabea Lissner ◽

Adelle Thomas ◽

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Gender Inequality ◽

Climate Science ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Gender Inequalities ◽

Growing Up ◽

Inequality Index ◽

Differential Vulnerability ◽

Near Term

AbstractGender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.

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Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fst081 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 70 (5) ◽

pp. 1023-1037 ◽

Cited By ~ 144

Author(s):

Anne B. Hollowed ◽

Manuel Barange ◽

Richard J. Beamish ◽

Keith Brander ◽

Kevern Cochrane ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Marine Fish ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Skill Assessment ◽

Vital Rates ◽

Marine Research ◽

Research Teams ◽

Research Organizations ◽

Fish And Shellfish ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Hollowed, A. B., Barange, M., Beamish, R., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M., Hare, J., Holt, J., Ito, S-I., Kim, S., King, J., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B., Mueter, F., Okey, T., Peck, M. A., Radchenko, V., Rice, J., Schirripa, M., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1023–1037. This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associated communities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities.

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Food web structure of the epibenthic community at the sea ice edge in Baffin Bay, Canada

10.7287/peerj.preprints.26673 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Gustavo Yunda-Guarin ◽

Philippe Archambault ◽

Guillaume Massé ◽

Christian Nozais

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Food Web ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

The Arctic ◽

Feeding Guilds ◽

Food Web Structure ◽

Baffin Bay ◽

Ice Edge ◽

Sea Ice Edge

In polar areas, the pelagic-benthic coupling plays a fundamental role in ensuring organic matter flow across depths and trophic levels. Climate change impacts the Arctic’s physical environment and ecosystem functioning, affecting the sequestration of carbon, the structure and efficiency of the benthic food web and its resilience.In the Arctic Ocean, highest atmospheric warming tendencies (by ~0.5°C) occur in the east of Baffin Bay making this area an ideal site to study the effects of climate change on benthic communities. We sampled epibenthic organisms at 13 stations bordering the sea ice between June and July 2016. The epibenthic taxonomic composition was identified and grouped by feeding guilds. Isotopic signatures (δ13C - δ15N), trophic levels and trophic separation and redundancy were measured and quantified at each station. In the light of the results obtained, the stability of the benthic community in the Baffin Bay at the sea ice edge is discussed.

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Dimensions of Blue Carbon and emerging perspectives

Biology Letters ◽

10.1098/rsbl.2018.0781 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. 20180781 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Catherine E. Lovelock ◽

Carlos M. Duarte

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Marine Ecosystems ◽

Coastal Ecosystems ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Blue Carbon ◽

Tidal Marshes ◽

Gas Emissions ◽

Mitigate Climate Change

Blue Carbon is a term coined in 2009 to draw attention to the degradation of marine and coastal ecosystems and the need to conserve and restore them to mitigate climate change and for the other ecosystem services they provide. Blue Carbon has multiple meanings, which we aim to clarify here, which reflect the original descriptions of the concept including (1) all organic matter captured by marine organisms, and (2) how marine ecosystems could be managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation and conservation. The multifaceted nature of the Blue Carbon concept has led to unprecedented collaboration across disciplines, where scientists, conservationists and policy makers have interacted intensely to advance shared goals. Some coastal ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass) are established Blue Carbon ecosystems as they often have high carbon stocks, support long-term carbon storage, offer the potential to manage greenhouse gas emissions and support other adaptation policies. Some marine ecosystems do not meet key criteria for inclusion within the Blue Carbon framework (e.g. fish, bivalves and coral reefs). Others have gaps in scientific understanding of carbon stocks or greenhouse gas fluxes, or currently there is limited potential for management or accounting for carbon sequestration (macroalgae and phytoplankton), but may be considered Blue Carbon ecosystems in the future, once these gaps are addressed.

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Food-web dynamics under climate change

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2017.1772 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 284 (1867) ◽

pp. 20171772 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Lai Zhang ◽

Daisuke Takahashi ◽

Martin Hartvig ◽

Ken H. Andersen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Web ◽

Ecosystem Function ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Physiological Effects ◽

Ecological Communities ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Thermal Niche ◽

The Impact ◽

Food Web Model

Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes. We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our simulations illustrate how isolated communities deteriorate as populations go extinct when the environment moves outside the species' thermal niches. High-trophic-level species are most vulnerable, while the ecosystem function of lower trophic levels is less impacted. Open communities can compensate for the loss of ecosystem function by invasions of new species. Individual populations show complex responses largely uncorrelated with the direct impact of temperature change on physiology. Such complex responses are particularly evident during extinction and invasion events of other species, where climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted.

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Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9040068 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 68

Author(s):

Mary Ann Cunningham ◽

Nicholas S. Wright ◽

Penelope B. Mort Ranta ◽

Hannah K. Benton ◽

Hassan G. Ragy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

West Africa ◽

Low Income ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Multiple Scales ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Influential Factor ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Limiting Factor

Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation.

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Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services

Frontiers in Climate ◽

10.3389/fclim.2021.738224 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

Author(s):

Alessandro Tagliabue ◽

Lester Kwiatkowski ◽

Laurent Bopp ◽

Momme Butenschön ◽

William Cheung ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Primary Production ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Net Primary Production ◽

Marine Ecosystems ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Marine Phytoplankton ◽

Historical Period ◽

Model Variability

Ocean net primary production (NPP) results from CO2 fixation by marine phytoplankton, catalysing the transfer of organic matter and energy to marine ecosystems, supporting most marine food webs, and fisheries production as well as stimulating ocean carbon sequestration. Thus, alterations to ocean NPP in response to climate change, as quantified by Earth system model experiments conducted as part of the 5th and 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) efforts, are expected to alter key ecosystem services. Despite reductions in inter-model variability since CMIP5, the ocean components of CMIP6 models disagree roughly 2-fold in the magnitude and spatial distribution of NPP in the contemporary era, due to incomplete understanding and insufficient observational constraints. Projections of NPP change in absolute terms show large uncertainty in CMIP6, most notably in the North Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific regions, with the latter explaining over two-thirds of the total inter-model uncertainty. While the Indo-Pacific has previously been identified as a hotspot for climate impacts on biodiversity and fisheries, the increased inter-model variability of NPP projections further exacerbates the uncertainties of climate risks on ocean-dependent human communities. Drivers of uncertainty in NPP changes at regional scales integrate different physical and biogeochemical factors that require more targeted mechanistic assessment in future studies. Globally, inter-model uncertainty in the projected changes in NPP has increased since CMIP5, which amplifies the challenges associated with the management of associated ecosystem services. Notably, this increased regional uncertainty in the projected NPP change in CMIP6 has occurred despite reduced uncertainty in the regional rates of NPP for historical period. Improved constraints on the magnitude of ocean NPP and the mechanistic drivers of its spatial variability would improve confidence in future changes. It is unlikely that the CMIP6 model ensemble samples the complete uncertainty in NPP, with the inclusion of additional mechanistic realism likely to widen projections further in the future, especially at regional scales. This has important consequences for assessing ecosystem impacts. Ultimately, we need an integrated mechanistic framework that considers how NPP and marine ecosystems respond to impacts of not only climate change, but also the additional non-climate drivers.

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Food-Web Structure and Functioning of Coastal Marine Ecosystems: Alvarado Lagoon and Adjacent Continental Shelf, Northern Gulf of Mexico

The Open Fish Science Journal ◽

10.2174/1874401x01811010073 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 73-94 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Víctor H. Cruz-Escalona ◽

María V. Morales-Zárate ◽

Jonathan Franco- López ◽

Leonardo A. Abitia-Cárdenas ◽

Armando Hernández-López ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Continental Shelf ◽

Food Web ◽

Demersal Fish ◽

Marine Ecosystems ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Trophic Relationships ◽

Future Research ◽

Food Web Structure ◽

Coastal Marine ◽

Coastal Marine Ecosystems

Introduction:The aim of the present study was to develop a trophic model characterizing simultaneously the structure and function of the two coastal marine ecosystems: Alvarado Lagoon, Mexico and adjacent continental shelf, important area for penaeid shrimps and demersal fish species.Method:The model was based on the assumption of biomass balance and describes the trophic relationships, flows of energy, and transfer efficiency of the food web, and includes 66 functional groups.Results:Results shows that 33% of the aggregate biological community biomass comes mainly second and third trophic levels. Size of aggregate flows as well as the transfer effectiveness among groups, results like those saw in other similar works. Connectance index (CI) was 0.12, meaning that there is only 12% only of the total theoretical connections exist. Results also shows that primary producers and detritus (lagoon and shelf) contribute with 60.1% of the total ascendency. Our work can be the basis for future research, which allow us to contrast alternate hypotheses about the functioning of the system.

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