Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face an uncertain future in the wake of rising ocean temperatures. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models of three northwest Atlantic coastal species of gadids (Atlantic cod, Polar cod, and Greenland cod), each with different thermal affinities and life histories. We illustrate how physiologically based species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict habitat distribution shifts and compare vulnerabilities of species and life stages with changing ocean conditions. We also derived an integrated habitat suitability index from the combined surfaces of each metric to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. Suitable thermal habitat shifted poleward for the juvenile life stages of all three species, but the area remaining differed across species and life stages through time. Arctic specialists like Polar cod are predicted to experience reductions in suitable juvenile habitat based on metrics of egg survival and growth potential. In contrast, habitat loss in boreal and subarctic species like Atlantic cod and Greenland cod may be dampened due to increases in suitable egg survival habitats as suitable juvenile growth potential habitats decrease. These results emphasize the need for mechanistic SDMs that can account for the combined effects of changing seasonal thermal requirements under varying climate change scenarios.

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The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.05.015 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 62 (7) ◽

pp. 1327-1337 ◽

Cited By ~ 276

Author(s):

Kenneth F. Drinkwater

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Atlantic Cod ◽

Future Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Total Production ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic

Abstract Future CO2-induced climate change scenarios from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate increasing air temperatures, with the greatest warming in the Arctic and Subarctic. Changes to the wind fields and precipitation patterns are also suggested. These will lead to changes in the hydrographic properties of the ocean, as well as the vertical stratification and circulation patterns. Of particular note is the expected increase in ocean temperature. Based upon the observed responses of cod to temperature variability, the expected responses of cod stocks throughout the North Atlantic to the future temperature scenarios are reviewed and discussed here. Stocks in the Celtic and Irish Seas are expected to disappear under predicted temperature changes by the year 2100, while those in the southern North Sea and Georges Bank will decline. Cod will likely spread northwards along the coasts of Greenland and Labrador, occupy larger areas of the Barents Sea, and may even extend onto some of the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean. In addition, spawning sites will be established further north than currently. It is likely that spring migrations will occur earlier, and fall returns will be later. There is the distinct possibility that, where seasonal sea ice disappears altogether, cod will cease their migration. Individual growth rates for many of the cod stocks will increase, leading to an overall increase in the total production of Atlantic cod in the North Atlantic. These responses of cod to future climate changes are highly uncertain, however, as they will also depend on the changes to climate and oceanographic variables besides temperature, such as plankton production, the prey and predator fields, and industrial fishing.

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Fish thermal habitat current use and simulation of thermal habitat availability in lakes of the Argentine Patagonian Andes under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.237 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 636 ◽

pp. 688-698 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Pablo H. Vigliano ◽

Magalí M. Rechencq ◽

María V. Fernández ◽

Gustavo E. Lippolt ◽

Patricio J. Macchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Availability ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Thermal Habitat ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Patagonian Andes

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Simulated climate change scenarios impact the reproduction and early life stages of a soft coral

Marine Environmental Research ◽

10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105215 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 163 ◽

pp. 105215

Author(s):

Ronen Liberman ◽

Maoz Fine ◽

Yehuda Benayahu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Early Life ◽

Soft Coral ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Life Stages ◽

Early Life Stages ◽

Simulated Climate ◽

Simulated Climate Change

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Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change

10.21203/rs.3.rs-135577/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Samir Patel ◽

Megan Winton ◽

Joshua Hatch ◽

Heather Haas ◽

Vincent Saba ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Continental Shelf ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Sea Turtles ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Northwest Atlantic ◽

Thermal Habitat ◽

Probability Of Presence

Abstract It is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species’ current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° - 29.7° C and depths between 0 – 105.0 m. The calculated core habitat consisted of temperatures between 15.0° – 28.0° C and at depths between 8.0 – 92.0 m and the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° – 25.3° C and at depths between 26.1 – 74.2 m. The habitat suitability model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.

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The influence of air temperature, groundwater discharge, and climate change on the thermal diversity of stream fishes in southern Ontario watersheds

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/f08-007 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 65 (2) ◽

pp. 297-308 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Cindy Chu ◽

Nicholas E Jones ◽

Nicholas E Mandrak ◽

Andrew R Piggott ◽

Charles K Minns

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Groundwater Discharge ◽

Warm Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Stream Fishes ◽

Southern Ontario ◽

Thermal Habitat ◽

Thermal Diversity

The availability of suitable thermal habitat for fishes in streams is influenced by several factors, including flow, channel morphology, riparian vegetation, and land use. This study examined the influence of air temperature and groundwater discharge, predictors of stream temperature, on the thermal diversity (cold-, cool-, and warm-water preferences) of stream fish communities in southern Ontario watersheds. Site-level fish sampling data were used to assess the thermal diversity of 43 quaternary watersheds using three metrics, the proportion of sites within a watershed having (i) cold-, (ii) cool-, and (iii) warm-water fishes. Our results indicated that 53.9% of the variances in cold-water and 54.1% of the variances in warm-water fish distributions within the watersheds could be attributed to groundwater discharge and air temperature variables. Climate change scenarios suggested that watersheds with high groundwater discharge and the associated thermal diversity of fishes within those watersheds are less sensitive to climate change than watersheds with low groundwater discharge. Conservation of groundwater resources will be required to lessen climate change impacts on the thermal habitat and thermal diversity of stream fishes in southern Ontario watersheds.

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Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle thermal habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-88290-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Samir H. Patel ◽

Megan V. Winton ◽

Joshua M. Hatch ◽

Heather L. Haas ◽

Vincent S. Saba ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Continental Shelf ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Sea Turtles ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Northwest Atlantic ◽

Thermal Habitat ◽

Probability Of Presence

AbstractIt is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species’ current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° to 29.7 °C and depths between 0 and 105.0 m. The calculated core bathythermal range consisted of SSTs between 15.0° and 28.0 °C and depths between 8.0 and 92.0 m, with the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° and 25.3 °C and at depths between 26.1 and 74.2 m. This model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.

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