scholarly journals Effects of Measuring Devices and Sampling Strategies on the Interpretation of Monitoring Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Fischer ◽  
Peter Dietrich ◽  
Eric P. Achterberg ◽  
Norbert Anselm ◽  
Holger Brix ◽  
...  

A thorough and reliable assessment of changes in sea surface water temperatures (SSWTs) is essential for understanding the effects of global warming on long-term trends in marine ecosystems and their communities. The first long-term temperature measurements were established almost a century ago, especially in coastal areas, and some of them are still in operation. However, while in earlier times these measurements were done by hand every day, current environmental long-term observation stations (ELTOS) are often fully automated and integrated in cabled underwater observatories (UWOs). With this new technology, year-round measurements became feasible even in remote or difficult to access areas, such as coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean in winter, where measurements were almost impossible just a decade ago. In this context, there is a question over what extent the sampling frequency and accuracy influence results in long-term monitoring approaches. In this paper, we address this with a combination of lab experiments on sensor accuracy and precision and a simulated sampling program with different sampling frequencies based on a continuous water temperature dataset from Svalbard, Arctic, from 2012 to 2017. Our laboratory experiments showed that temperature measurements with 12 different temperature sensor types at different price ranges all provided measurements accurate enough to resolve temperature changes over years on a level discussed in the literature when addressing climate change effects in coastal waters. However, the experiments also revealed that some sensors are more suitable for measuring absolute temperature changes over time, while others are more suitable for determining relative temperature changes. Our simulated sampling program in Svalbard coastal waters over 5 years revealed that the selection of a proper sampling frequency is most relevant for discriminating significant long-term temperature changes from random daily, seasonal, or interannual fluctuations. While hourly and daily sampling could deliver reliable, stable, and comparable results concerning temperature increases over time, weekly sampling was less able to reliably detect overall significant trends. With even lower sampling frequencies (monthly sampling), no significant temperature trend over time could be detected. Although the results were obtained for a specific site, they are transferable to other aquatic research questions and non-polar regions.

Author(s):  
Yelena I. Polyakova ◽  
Yekaterina I. Novichkova ◽  
Tatiana S. Klyuvitkina ◽  
Elizaveta A. Agafonova ◽  
Irina M. Kryukova

Presented the results of long-term studies of diatoms and aquatic palynomorphs in surface sediments of the Arctic seas and the possibility of their use for the reconstructions of paleocirculation water masses, advection of Atlantic and Bering sea water into the Arctic ocean, changes in the river runoff to the seas, sedimentary processes in the marginal filter of the largest rivers, seasonal sea ice cover and other hydrological parameters.


Author(s):  
Fedor Gippius ◽  
Fedor Gippius ◽  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Elena Stoliarova ◽  
...  

This study is focused on the alterations and typical features of the wind wave climate of the Black Sea’s coastal waters since 1979 till nowadays. Wind wave parameters were calculated by means of the 3rd-generation numerical spectral wind wave model SWAN, which is widely used on various spatial scales – both coastal waters and open seas. Data on wind speed and direction from the NCEP CFSR reanalysis were used as forcing. The computations were performed on an unstructured computational grid with cell size depending on the distance from the shoreline. Modeling results were applied to evaluate the main characteristics of the wind wave in various coastal areas of the sea.


Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.


2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1008-1015
Author(s):  
A. D. Gubanova ◽  
O. A. Garbazey ◽  
D. A. Altukhov ◽  
V. S. Mukhanov ◽  
E. V. Popova

Long-term (20032014) routine observations of zooplankton in Sevastopol Bay (the Black Sea) have allowed the naturalization of the invasive copepod Oithona davisae to be studied in the Black Sea coastal waters. Inter-annual and seasonal variability of the species and their impact on the native copepod community have been analyzed. The invasion of O. davisae and their undoubted dominance in terms of abundance were shown to alter the community structure but, at the same time, the abundances of the native species did not decrease, excepting the Black Sea earlier invader Acartia tonsa. A significant decline in A. tonsa numbers over the stages of O. davisae establishment and naturalization provided evidence of competition between the species. O. davisae have been demonstrated to gain competitive advantage over A. tonsa, that ensured their fast dispersal in the Black Sea, acclimatization in the new habitat and the successful competition over native species.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Kazanin

The modern oil and gas industry is heavily dependent on the processes and trends driven by the accelerating digitalization of the economy. Thus, the digitalization of the oil and gas sector has become Russia’s top priority, which involves a technological and structural transformation of all production processes and stages.Aim. The presented study aims to identify the major trends and prospects of development of the Russian oil and gas sector in the context of its digitalization and formation of the digital economy.Tasks. The authors analyze the major trends in the development of the oil and gas industry at a global scale and in Russia with allowance for the prospects of accelerated exploration of the Arctic; determine the best practices of implementation of digital technologies by oil and gas companies as well as the prospects and obstacles for the subsequent transfer of digital technologies to the Russian oil and gas industry.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods, such as analysis, synthesis, and scientific generalization.Results. Arctic hydrocarbons will become increasingly important to Russia in the long term, and their exploration and production will require the implementation of innovative technologies. Priority directions for the development of many oil and gas producers will include active application of digital technologies as a whole (different types of robots that could replace people in performing complex procedures), processing and analysis of big data using artificial intelligence to optimize processes, particularly in the field of exploration and production, processing and transportation. Digitalization of the oil and gas sector is a powerful factor in the improvement of the efficiency of the Russian economy. However, Russian companies are notably lagging behind in this field of innovative development and there are problems and high risks that need to be overcome to realize its potential for business and society.Conclusions. Given the strategic importance of the oil and gas industry for Russia, its sustainable development and national security, it is recommendable to focus on the development and implementation of digital technologies. This is crucial for the digitalization of long-term projection and strategic planning, assessment of the role and place of Russia and its largest energy companies in the global market with allowance for a maximum number of different internal and external factors.


Water Policy ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
Tishya Chatterjee

In conditions of severe water-pollution and dormant community acceptance of accumulating environmental damage, the regulator's role goes beyond pollution prevention and more towards remediation and solutions based on the community's long-term expectations of economic benefits from clean water. This paper suggests a method to enable these benefits to become perceptible progressively, through participatory clean-up operations, supported by staggered pollution charges. It analyses the relevant literature on pollution prevention and applies a cost-based “willingness to pay” model, using primary basin-level data of total marginal costs. It develops a replicable demand-side approach imposing charge-standard targets over time in urban-industrial basins of developing countries.


Author(s):  
Halil Kaya ◽  
Gaurango Banerjee

The paper examines the Sarbanes-Oxley (2002) Acts immediate impact on board composition and characteristics as well as possible reversals in its impact over time. Effects on directors age and tenure are analyzed over the 2001-06 sample period. Female participation in corporate boards is also studied in the pre-SOX and post-SOX periods. The dual roles of directors in being a member of the board as well as serving as either CEO, CFO, Chairman, Co-Chair, Founder, or Lead Director of their respective companies is also examined. We observe a short-term impact of SOX on board compositions due to changes seen in board characteristics between 2001 (pre-SOX), and 2003-05 short-term period (post-SOX). Also, we observe a reversal of board characteristics in 2006 to pre-SOX levels implying that the effects of SOX on board composition were short-lived, and needs to be monitored over time to ensure adherence to corporate accountability guidelines over the long-term.


The term ‘pollution’ is taken in its broadest sense and effects are recognized to be due to interference, tainting and toxicity. Each of these types of impact is discussed and assessed. It is concluded that no long-term adverse effects on fish stocks can be attributed to oil but that local impacts can be extremely damaging in the short term and that produce from specific localities can be tainted and unmarketable for long periods. In some coastal areas oil can be one among several contributors to reduced water quality, and the implications of this are discussed.


2021 ◽  
pp. 194016122110252
Author(s):  
Sebastián Valenzuela ◽  
Daniel Halpern ◽  
Felipe Araneda

Despite widespread concern, research on the consequences of misinformation on people's attitudes is surprisingly scant. To fill in this gap, the current study examines the long-term relationship between misinformation and trust in the news media. Based on the reinforcing spirals model, we analyzed data from a three-wave panel survey collected in Chile between 2017 and 2019. We found a weak, over-time relationship between misinformation and media skepticism. Specifically, initial beliefs on factually dubious information were negatively correlated with subsequent levels of trust in the news media. Lower trust in the media, in turn, was related over time to higher levels of misinformation. However, we found no evidence of a reverse, parallel process where media trust shielded users against misinformation, further reinforcing trust in the news media. The lack of evidence of a downward spiral suggests that the corrosive effects of misinformation on attitudes toward the news media are less serious than originally suggested. We close with a discussion of directions for future research.


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