scholarly journals Randomized Estimation of the Net Present Value of a Residential Housing Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kasprowicz ◽  
Anna Starczyk-Kołbyk ◽  
Robert Wójcik
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Total Revenue ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Random Disturbances ◽  
The Right

Randomized estimation of the net present value of a housing development allows for the assessment of the efficiency of projects in random implementation conditions. The efficiency of a project is estimated on the basis of primary input data, usually used in project planning. For this purpose, random disturbances are identified that may randomly affect the course and results of the project. The probability and severity of disturbances are determined. The primary initial data is then randomized, and a randomized probabilistic index of the project’s net present value is calculated, the value of which indicates whether the project is profitable or whether implementation should be stopped. Based on this data, the expected total revenue, the expected total cost, the expected gross profit, and the net present value of the randomized performance of the project are calculated. The values of these are estimated for expected, favorable, and unfavorable conditions of implementation. Finally, the risks for the total revenue and total cost of the project are calculated and plotted for comparative revenue values in the range [1, 0] and cost in the range [0, 1]. Their analysis makes it possible to make the right investment decisions before starting the investment at the preparation stage.

SURFACE FACILITIES FOR OILFIELDS IN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SECTOR OF THE COOPER BASIN

1986 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 470
Author(s):  
R.J. Scanlan ◽  
C.J. White
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The South ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cooper Basin

Delhi Petroleum Pty Ltd, as operator, has been responsible for the development of eight oilfields in the South Australian sector of the Cooper Basin since 1982. Some of these field developments are economically marginal, hence the need to optimise those aspects of the facilities which impact on the ongoing cost of production and the overall profitability. A phased development approach has evolved over the past three years to reduce the external financing requirements and to improve the certainty of the data used to define the key elements of each project.For the successful completion of the project a task force approach to project management is utilised, supported by the use of computerised project planning and control systems. Further, it is important to define and agree on the design criteria and philosophy for the project at the commencement, this providing a base by which to measure scope changes, and so that all concerned are working to a common goal.The use of economic analysis as a decision-making tool during all phases of the project assists the project team to home in on the key objective which is to maximise the project net present value. Comparative economics and sensitivity analysis are used at the conceptual stage to select the preferred development option, e.g. pipeline versus trucking.The design of surface facilities is dictated by a wide range of criteria including the above development philosophy. The variable nature of these criteria demonstrates that each new field development must normally be engineered individually to ensure the target of maximum net present value can be achieved.The Gidgealpa Crude Oil Development Project demonstrates the effectiveness of the above methodology and philosophies. The field was discovered in August 1984, and early production and trucking of oil commenced in January 1985 with 374 000 bbls produced prior to commissioning of the pipeline to Moomba in September 1985.

scholarly journals On exact sampling of stochastic perpetuities

2011 ◽  
Vol 48 (A) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose H. Blanchet ◽  
Karl Sigman
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Point ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Positive Density ◽  
Simulation Algorithm ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Past ◽  
Coupling From The Past ◽  
Fixed Point Equation ◽  
Point Equation ◽  
The Right

A stochastic perpetuity takes the formD∞=∑n=0∞exp(Y1+⋯+Yn)Bn, whereYn:n≥0) and (Bn:n≥0) are two independent sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables (RVs). This is an expression for the stationary distribution of the Markov chain defined recursively byDn+1=AnDn+Bn,n≥0, whereAn=eYn;D∞then satisfies the stochastic fixed-point equationD∞D̳AD∞+B, whereAandBare independent copies of theAnandBn(and independent ofD∞on the right-hand side). In our framework, the quantityBn, which represents a random reward at timen, is assumed to be positive, unbounded with EBnp<∞ for somep>0, and have a suitably regular continuous positive density. The quantityYnis assumed to be light tailed and represents a discount rate from timenton-1. The RVD∞then represents the net present value, in a stochastic economic environment, of an infinite stream of stochastic rewards. We provide an exact simulation algorithm for generating samples ofD∞. Our method is a variation ofdominated coupling from the pastand it involves constructing a sequence of dominating processes.

scholarly journals KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL REPLANTING TANAMAN KARET DI DESA BATUMARTA 1 KECAMATAN LUBUK RAJA KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU PROVINSI SUMATERA SELATAN

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-96
Author(s):  
Tyara Naisyah ◽  
Bambang Sumantri ◽  
. Nusril
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Rubber Plantation ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Sensitive Factor

This research aim to: 1) to analyze the amount of financial worthiness of rubber plantation as long as economic age in Batumarta 1 Lubuk Raja Ogan Komering Ulu regency. 2) To know the level of sensitivity in replanting rubber to several dominant factors related to finance and advantage in Batumarta 1 Lubuk Raja Ogan Komering Ulu regency. 77 respondents are chosen, about 30 % from 258 population which have represented population, because the population in Batumarta1 homogeneously relative in rubber plantation system, that is rejuveration system. The sample was chosen by using Simple Random Sampling Method. The research methodology is Survey. While the data is analyzed by worthiness count criteria which consist of Net B/C ratio, Gross B/C ratio, Provitability ratio, Net Present value (NPV), Internal Return Rate(IRR), this valuation done to know the worthiness off rubber replanting. Otherwise, also done the counting of sensitivity experimental. The result shows that rubber replanting in Batumarta 1 can be properly applied and the most sensitive factor is the decresing of selling price, increasing of production cost (fertilizer and total cost before tax) Keywords: Finansial feasibility Rubber  Replanting 

scholarly journals On exact sampling of stochastic perpetuities

2011 ◽  
Vol 48 (A) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose H. Blanchet ◽  
Karl Sigman
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Point ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Positive Density ◽  
Simulation Algorithm ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Past ◽  
Coupling From The Past ◽  
Fixed Point Equation ◽  
Point Equation ◽  
The Right

A stochastic perpetuity takes the form D∞=∑n=0∞ exp(Y1+⋯+Yn)Bn, where Yn:n≥0) and (Bn:n≥0) are two independent sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables (RVs). This is an expression for the stationary distribution of the Markov chain defined recursively by Dn+1=AnDn+Bn, n≥0, where An=eYn; D∞ then satisfies the stochastic fixed-point equation D∞D̳AD∞+B, where A and B are independent copies of the An and Bn (and independent of D∞ on the right-hand side). In our framework, the quantity Bn, which represents a random reward at time n, is assumed to be positive, unbounded with EBnp <∞ for some p>0, and have a suitably regular continuous positive density. The quantity Yn is assumed to be light tailed and represents a discount rate from time n to n-1. The RV D∞ then represents the net present value, in a stochastic economic environment, of an infinite stream of stochastic rewards. We provide an exact simulation algorithm for generating samples of D∞. Our method is a variation of dominated coupling from the past and it involves constructing a sequence of dominating processes.

scholarly journals KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL USAHA AGROINDUSTRI BAWANG GORENG UNTUK MENINGKATKAN PENDAPATAN MASYARAKAT KECAMATAN SELAPARANG, KOTA MATARAM

AGROINTEK ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-314
Author(s):  
Rucitra Widyasari ◽  
Agriananta Fahmi Hidayat ◽  
Zulhan Widya Baskara
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Feasibility Analysis ◽  
First Year ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Marketing Process ◽  
Financial Feasibility ◽  
The Right ◽  
The City

The financial feasibility analysis in Dutra fried onion microbusiness is carried out in addition to looking at potential for business development in densely populated areas in the city of Mataram as well as to predict the possible obstacles and opportunities that can occur in the future, so this analysis can help increase group income by at least 10 percent. Some things that are reviewed and in the financial feasibility analysis include investment and production costs, cost of goods sold, and business eligibility criteria which include Annual Equivalent (AE), Net Present Value (NPV), Payback Period (PP), and B / C Returns Ratio. The result of the calculation of the financial feasibility of Dutra’s microbusiness is AE IDR 16.153.600, NPV IDR 42.392.660, Payback Perode for 2 years, and B / C Ratio 1.39 in the first year based on financial asset. From these results it can be concluded that a micro business that is feasible to do and if supported by the right marketing process it is not impossible to become a small business icon in this region.     

An Economic Impact of Eucalyptus Plantation on Farmers' Sustainability in Gujarat

2020 ◽  
pp. 518-525
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Marketing Channels ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Eucalyptus Plantation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Percent Rate

The economic analysis of eucalyptus was carried out in Middle Gujarat during 2018-19. The average gross return per hectare was 222391, and net return over total cost was 85291. On an average, in normal cost and return situation at ten percent rate of discount the net present value (NPV) was found to be positive ( 47563.15), B: C ratio was found more than unity (1.40), and internal rate of return (IRR) was more (35.00 percent) than the standard bank rate. The results also indicated that three marketing channels were found for the marketing of the eucalyptus tree. Out of the three channels, Channel-I (Producer–Wholesaler–Retailer–Consumer) dominated as 88.33 percent of respondents were selling eucalyptus tree through this channel. The net price received by farmer per quintal and producer share in consumer rupee was maximum in Channel-I. Overall it was observed that the investment on eucalyptus plantation was a profitable and economically viable option under Gujarat conditions.

scholarly journals (Expected) value-based payment: From total cost of care to net present value of care

Healthcare ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaniel Z. Counts ◽  
Justin Dean Smith ◽  
Daniel Max Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Cost Of Care ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Total Cost

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL AGROINDUSTRY JIPANG

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-113
Author(s):  
Naila Nafiatul Hayati
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Feasibility Analysis ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Average Gain ◽  
Method Analysis

A business feasibility analysis is needed to see a picture of feasible or tudak, In running japan business agroindustry, most entrepreneurs have not done a special financial recording for his business, so it is not known how much it will cost and income on his business. This study aims to determine the amount of expenses, income received and profits, knowing business feasibility and knowing the length of capital jipang agro industry in UMKM Sinar Abadi can be back in units of time year. Method analysis used in business feasibility analysis include R / C Ratio, Net Present Value (NPV), Break Event Point (BEP), and Pay Back Period (PP). This study was carried out from months June 2017 to July 2017. The results of the calculations from this study indicate that the total cost for one time jipang production reached Rp34.950.463, - per month, the average gain gained Rp133.554.450, -, while the calculation of R / C ratio of agro industry jipang Sinar Abadi shows the number> 1, which is 1.32. Jipang Agroindustry is declared worthy with value NPV Rp 979.900.978. Break Event Point Value (BEP), BEP receipt obtained value of Rp 474,425, BEP units obtained value of 12 Kg and BEP price obtained value of Rp 30,629, meaning do not experience any profit or loss before the age of the equipment ends. While Pay Back Period (PP) of 0.1 years, so it can be concluded that jipang agro industry Sinar Abadi is worth developing.

scholarly journals Modelling and numerical assessment of a maintenance strategy with stock through piecewise deterministic Markov processes and quasi Monte Carlo methods

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-445
Author(s):  
Jeanne Demgne ◽  
Sophie Mercier ◽  
William Lair ◽  
Jérôme Lonchampt
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Markov Processes ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Quasi Monte Carlo ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes ◽  
The Right

To ensure a power generation level, the French national electricity supply (EDF) has to manage its producing assets by putting in place adapted preventive maintenance strategies. In this article, a fleet of identical components is considered, which are spread out all around France (one per power plant site). The components are assumed to have stochastically independent lifetimes, but they are made functionally dependent through the sharing of a common stock of spare parts. When available, these spare parts are used for both corrective and preventive replacements, with priority to corrective replacements. When the stock is empty, replacements are delayed until the arrival of new spare parts. These spare parts are expensive, and their manufacturing time is long, which makes it necessary to rigorously define their ordering process. The point of the article is to provide the decision maker with the tools to take the right decision (make or not the overhaul). To do that, two indicators are proposed, which are based on an economic variable called the net present value. The net present value stands for the difference between the cumulated discounted cash-flows of the purely corrective policy and the preventive one which including the overhaul. Piecewise deterministic Markov processes are first considered for the joint modelling of the stochastic evolution of the components, stock and ordering process with and without overhaul. The indicators are next expressed with respect to these piecewise deterministic Markov processes, which have to be numerically assessed. Instead of using the most classical Monte Carlo simulations, we here suggest alternate methods based on quasi Monte Carlo simulations, which replace the random uniform numbers of the Monte Carlo method by deterministic sequences called low-discrepancy sequences. The obtained results show a real gain of the quasi Monte Carlo methods in comparison with the Monte Carlo method. The developed tools can hence help the decision maker to take the right decision.

Schedule Optimization To Accelerate Offshore Oil Projects While Maximizing Net Present Value in the Presence of Simultaneous Operations, Weather Delays, and Resource Limitations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
M. K. Almedallah ◽  
S. Clark ◽  
S. D. C. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithms ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Nsga Ii ◽  
Resource Limitations ◽  
Simultaneous Operations ◽  
Offshore Oil ◽  
Single Objective

Summary Cost and schedule overruns are endemic problems for offshore oil projects. This can be partly attributed to weather delays, resource limitations, and scheduling risks. The problem is further compounded because of the large number of interdependent activities, such as drilling and platform installation, typically involved in the buildup period of oilfield development. As a result, there is a pressing need to find robust project planning and scheduling models that consider these interacting components and associated risks in offshore oil projects. This study considers three techniques to optimize offshore oil project schedules while accounting for the impact of numerous field activities and potential delay factors; these are mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), single-objective genetic algorithms (SOGAs), and nondominated sorting genetic algorithms (NSGA-II). The study compares the performance of each using a model that integrates field planning with scheduling while accounting for weather delays, resource limitations, and simultaneous operations (SIMOPS; i.e., the ability to conduct more than one activity at once). The first two techniques (MILP and SOGA) optimize the oilfield schedule based on a single objective, which is to maximize net present value (NPV) or minimize project time. However, the maximum NPV schedule may result in a longer project time, whereas the shortest project time may result in a lower NPV. Therefore, the third method using NSGA-II finds Pareto-optimal schedules that balance these competing objectives. Four case studies are provided to compare the MILP and SOGA approaches with the suggested multiobjective NSGA-II.

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