scholarly journals A Statistical Investigation of Mesoscale Precursors of Significant Tornadoes: The Italian Case Study

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 301
Author(s):  
Roberto Ingrosso ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Mario Marcello Miglietta ◽  
Gianfausto Salvadori
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Deep Level ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Large Wind

In this study, mesoscale environments associated with 57 significant tornadoes occurring over Italy in the period 2000–2018 are analyzed. The role of the vertical Wind Shear in the lower and middle troposphere, in terms of low-level shear (LLS) and deep-level shear (DLS), and of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) as possible precursors of significant tornadoes is statistically investigated. Wind shear and CAPE data are extracted from the ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Overall, the study indicates that: (a) values of these variables in the two uppermost quartiles of their statistical distribution significantly increases the probability of tornado occurrences; (b) the probability increases for increasing values of LLS and DLS, and (c) is maximum when either wind shear or CAPE are large. These conclusions hold for both the reanalysis datasets and do not depend upon the season and/or the considered area. With the possible exception of weak tornadoes, which are not included in our study, our results show that large wind shear, in the presence of medium-to-high values of CAPE, are reliable precursors of tornadoes.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Terrain Influences on Upscale Convective Growth of a Supercell

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (12) ◽  
pp. 4305-4324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake P. Mulholland ◽  
Stephen W. Nesbitt ◽  
Robert J. Trapp
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract Satellite- and ground-based radar observations have shown that the northern half of Argentina, South America, is a region susceptible to rapid upscale growth of deep moist convection into larger organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). In particular, the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba is hypothesized to be vital to this upscale-growth process. A canonical orographic supercell-to-MCS transition case study was analyzed to determine the influence that complex terrain had on processes governing upscale convective growth. High-resolution numerical modeling experiments were conducted in which the terrain height of the Sierras de Córdoba was systematically modified by raising or lowering the elevation of terrain above 1000 m. The alteration of the terrain lead to both direct and indirect effects on storm morphology. A direct effect included terrain blocking of cold pools, whereas indirect effects included terrain-induced variations in pertinent storm environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, convective available potential energy). When the terrain was raised, low-level and deep-layer vertical wind shear increased, mixed-layer convective available potential energy decreased, deep moist convection initiated earlier, and cold pools were blocked and generally became stronger and deeper. The reverse occurred when the terrain was lowered, resulting in a weaker supercell that did not grow upscale into an MCS. The control simulation supercell displayed the deepest cold pool and correspondingly fastest transition from supercell to MCS, potentially revealing that the unique terrain configuration of the Sierras de Córdoba was supportive of the observed rapid upscale convective growth of this orographic supercell.

scholarly journals Statistical Characteristics and Environmental Conditions of the Warm-Season Severe Convective Events over North China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Ruoyun Ma ◽  
Shuanglei Feng ◽  
Shuanglong Jin ◽  
Jianhua Sun ◽  
Shenming Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
North China ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Based on severe weather reports, surface precipitation observations, surface routine observations, and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis dataset during the warm seasons (May–September) of 2011–2018 over North China, this paper analyzes the statistical characteristics and environmental conditions of three types of severe convective events. Results are compared between events with different altitudes (i.e., mountains and plains), severities (i.e., ordinary and significant), and months. Hail and thunderstorm high winds (THWs) are more common over the mountains whereas short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR) is more frequent over the plains. The occurrence frequency of severe convective events exhibits distinct monthly and diurnal variations. Analyses of the environmental parameters provide reference for the potential forecasting of severe convective events over this region. Specifically, the 850–500 hPa temperature lapse rate (LR85), pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at 500 hPa (thetase500), and precipitable water (PW) are skillful in distinguishing hail and THW environments from SDHR environments, and thetase500 is useful in discriminating between hail and THW environments. The convective environments over the plains are characterized by significantly higher (lower) PW (LR85) compared with mountains. The skill of these parameters in forecasting the severity of the convective hazards is limited. Probability distributions in the two parameters space indicate that the occurrence of significant hail requires both higher most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) and stronger 0–6 km bulk wind shear (SHR6) compared with ordinary hail. Compared with ordinary THWs, the significant THWs over the mountains depend more on the SHR6 whereas those over the plains rely more on the MUCAPE. The significant SDHR events over the plains tend to occur under a variety of instability conditions. The thermodynamic parameters (i.e., MUCAPE, thetase500, and downdraft convective available potential energy), and PW are significantly higher in July–August, whereas the LR85 and vertical wind shear are apparently higher in May, June and September.

scholarly journals Predicting the Climatology of Tornado Occurrences in North America with a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Framework*

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1899-1917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Y. S. Cheng ◽  
George B. Arhonditsis ◽  
David M. L. Sills ◽  
William A. Gough ◽  
Heather Auld
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

Abstract Destruction and fatalities from recent tornado outbreaks in North America have raised considerable concerns regarding their climatic and geographic variability. However, regional characterization of tornado activity in relation to large-scale climatic processes remains highly uncertain. Here, a novel Bayesian hierarchical framework is developed for elucidating the spatiotemporal variability of the factors underlying tornado occurrence in North America. It is demonstrated that regional variability of tornado activity can be characterized using a hierarchical parameterization of convective available potential energy, storm relative helicity, and vertical wind shear quantities. It is shown that the spatial variability of tornado occurrence during the warm summer season can be explained by convective available potential energy and storm relative helicity alone, while vertical wind shear is clearly better at capturing the spatial variability of the cool season tornado activity. The results suggest that the Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach is effective for understanding the regional tornadic environment and in forming the basis for establishing tornado prognostic tools in North America.

scholarly journals Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8513-8528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann ◽  
Anantha Aiyyer
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Thermodynamic Conditions ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes ◽  
Reduced Activity

Abstract A method of downscaling that isolates the effect of temperature and moisture changes on tropical cyclone (TC) activity was presented in Part I of this study. By applying thermodynamic modifications to analyzed initial and boundary conditions from past TC seasons, initial disturbances and the strength of synoptic-scale vertical wind shear are preserved in future simulations. This experimental design allows comparison of TC genesis events in the same synoptic setting, but in current and future thermodynamic environments. Simulations of both an active (September 2005) and inactive (September 2009) portion of past hurricane seasons are presented. An ensemble of high-resolution simulations projects reductions in ensemble-average TC counts between 18% and 24%, consistent with previous studies. Robust decreases in TC and hurricane counts are simulated with 18- and 6-km grid lengths, for both active and inactive periods. Physical processes responsible for reduced activity are examined through comparison of monthly and spatially averaged genesis-relevant parameters, as well as case studies of development of corresponding initial disturbances in current and future thermodynamic conditions. These case studies show that reductions in TC counts are due to the presence of incipient disturbances in marginal moisture environments, where increases in the moist entropy saturation deficits in future conditions preclude genesis for some disturbances. Increased convective inhibition and reduced vertical velocity are also found in the future environment. It is concluded that a robust decrease in TC frequency can result from thermodynamic changes alone, without modification of vertical wind shear or the number of incipient disturbances.

scholarly journals A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Rita Caldarella ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Subjects ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government's decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices.

Mapping power relations in SEA – The role of statutory environmental consultees. An Italian case-study

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 106405
Author(s):  
Paola Gazzola ◽  
Alessandro Bonifazi ◽  
Alessandro Rinaldi
Keyword(s):  
Power Relations ◽  
Italian Case

scholarly journals Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3827-3847 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Allen ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Kevin J. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980–2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0–6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.

scholarly journals On the role of aerosols, humidity, and vertical wind shear in the transition of shallow-to-deep convection at the Green Ocean Amazon 2014/5 site

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 11135-11148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudip Chakraborty ◽  
Kathleen A. Schiro ◽  
Rong Fu ◽  
J. David Neelin
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Deep Level ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Shallow Convection

Abstract. The preconditioning of the atmosphere for a shallow-to-deep convective transition during the dry-to-wet season transition period (August–November) is investigated using Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) GoAmazon2014/5 campaign data from March 2014 to November 2015 in Manacapuru, Brazil. In comparison to conditions observed prior to shallow convection, anomalously high humidity in the free troposphere and boundary layer is observed prior to a shallow-to-deep convection transition. An entraining plume model, which captures this leading dependence on lower tropospheric moisture, is employed to study indirect thermodynamic effects associated with vertical wind shear (VWS) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration on preconvective conditions. The shallow-to-deep convective transition primarily depends on humidity, especially that from the free troposphere, which tends to increase plume buoyancy. Conditions preceding deep convection are associated with high relative humidity, and low-to-moderate CCN concentration (less than the 67th percentile, 1274 cm−3). VWS, however, shows little relation to moisture and plume buoyancy. Buoyancy estimates suggest that the latent heat release due to freezing is important to deep convective growth under all conditions analyzed, consistent with potential pathways for aerosol effects, even in the presence of a strong entrainment. Shallow-only convective growth, however, shows an association with a strong (weak) low (deep) level VWS and with higher CCN concentration.

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