scholarly journals Projected Changes in Terrestrial Vegetation and Carbon Fluxes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Xiaobin Peng ◽  
Miao Yu ◽  
Haishan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
The Future ◽  
Warming World

The terrestrial ecosystem plays a vital role in regulating the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere. This study investigates how terrestrial vegetation coverage and carbon fluxes change in a world stabilizing at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial level. Model results derived from 20 Earth System Models (ESMs) under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios from CMIP5 and CMIP6 are employed to supply the projected results. Although the ESMs show a large spread of uncertainties, the ensemble means of global LAI are projected to increase by 0.04 ± 0.02 and 0.08 ± 0.04 in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming worlds, respectively. Vegetation density is projected to decrease only in the Brazilian Highlands due to the decrease of precipitation there. The high latitudes in Eurasia are projected to have stronger increase of LAI in the 2.0 °C warming world compared to that in 1.5 °C warming level caused by the increase of tree coverage. The largest zonal LAI is projected around 70° N while the largest zonal NPP is projected around 60° N and equator. The zonally inhomogeneous increase of vegetation density and productivity relates to the zonally inhomogeneous increase of temperature, which in turn could amplify the latitudinal gradient of temperature with additional warming. Most of the ESMs show uniform increases of global averaged NPP by 10.68 ± 8.60 and 15.42 ± 10.90 PgC year−1 under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, respectively, except in some sparse vegetation areas. The ensemble averaged NEE is projected to increase by 3.80 ± 7.72 and 4.83 ± 10.13 PgC year−1 in the two warming worlds. The terrestrial ecosystem over most of the world could be a stronger carbon sink than at present. However, some dry areas in Amazon and Central Africa may convert to carbon sources in a world with additional 0.5 °C warming. The start of the growing season in the northern high latitudes is projected to advance by less than one month earlier. Five out of 10 CMIP6 ESMs, which use the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) dataset or a prescribed potential vegetation distribution to constrain the future change of vegetation types, do not reduce the model uncertainties in projected LAI and terrestrial carbon fluxes. This may suggest the challenge in optimizing the carbon fluxes modeling in the future.

scholarly journals Biological control of the terrestrial carbon sink

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1283-1329 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.-D. Schulze
Keyword(s):  
Biological Control ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Biogeochemical Processes ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon Sink ◽  
Biological Program ◽  
International Biological

Abstract. This is a summary of the Vernadsky medal lecture given at the Nice EGU meeting in 2004. The lecture reviews the past (since the International Biological Program) and the future of our understanding of terrestrial carbon fluxes with focus on photosynthesis, respiration, primary, ecosystem, and biome productivity. Consideration is given to the interactions between biodiversity and biogeochemical processes.

scholarly journals Terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux estimated using GOSAT and OCO-2 XCO<sub>2</sub> retrievals

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (18) ◽  
pp. 12067-12082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengmao Wang ◽  
Fei Jiang ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Weimin Ju ◽  
Jing M. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Flux ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract. In this study, both the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals produced by the NASA Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) project (version b7.3) are assimilated within the GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation framework to constrain the terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux during 1 October 2014 to 31 December 2015. One inversion for the comparison, using in situ CO2 observations, and another inversion as a benchmark for the simulated atmospheric CO2 distributions of the real inversions, using global atmospheric CO2 trends and referred to as the poor-man inversion, are also conducted. The estimated global and regional carbon fluxes for 2015 are shown and discussed. CO2 observations from surface flask sites and XCO2 retrievals from Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) sites are used to evaluate the simulated concentrations with the posterior carbon fluxes. Globally, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (excluding biomass burning emissions) estimated from GOSAT data is stronger than that inferred from OCO-2 data, weaker than the in situ inversion and matches the poor-man inversion the best. Regionally, in most regions, the land sinks inferred from GOSAT data are also stronger than those from OCO-2 data, and in North America, Asia and Europe, the carbon sinks inferred from GOSAT inversion are comparable to those from in situ inversion. For the latitudinal distribution of land sinks, the satellite-based inversions suggest a smaller boreal and tropical sink but larger temperate sinks in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere than the in situ inversion. However, OCO-2 and GOSAT generally do not agree on which continent contains the smaller or larger sinks. Evaluations using flask and TCCON observations and the comparisons with in situ and poor-man inversions suggest that only GOSAT and the in situ inversions perform better than a poor-man solution. GOSAT data can effectively improve the carbon flux estimates in the Northern Hemisphere, while OCO-2 data, with the specific version used in this study, show only slight improvement. The differences of inferred land fluxes between GOSAT and OCO-2 inversions in different regions are mainly related to the spatial coverage, the data amount and the biases of these two satellite XCO2 retrievals.

scholarly journals Differences of the inverted terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux between using GOSAT and OCO-2 XCO<sub>2</sub> retrievals

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengmao Wang ◽  
Fei Jiang ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Weimin Ju ◽  
Jing M. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Carbon Flux ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Carbon Sinks ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract. In this study, both the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals are assimilated within the GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation framework to constrain the terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux during Jul 1, 2014 to Dec 31, 2015. The inverted global and regional carbon fluxes during Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2015 are shown and discussed. Surface CO2 mixing ratios from 47 surface flask sites and XCO2 measurements from 13 TCCON sites are used to evaluate the simulated concentrations with the posteriori carbon fluxes. The results show that globally, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (excluding biomass burning emissions) estimated from GOSAT data is stronger than that inferred from OCO-2 data, and the annual atmospheric CO2 growth rate estimated from GOSAT data is more consistent with the estimate of GCP 2017. Regionally, in most regions, the land sinks inferred from GOSAT data are also stronger than those from OCO-2 data. Compared with the prior fluxes, the carbon fluxes in northern temperate regions change most, followed by tropical and southern temperate regions, and the smallest changes occur in boreal regions. Basically, in temperate regions, the inferred land sinks are significantly increased, while those in tropical regions are decreased. The different changes in different regions are mainly related to the spatial coverage and the amount of XCO2 data in these regions. Compared with CT2016, the inferred carbon sinks are comparable in most temperate regions, but much weaker in boreal and tropical regions. Evaluations using flask and TCCON observations suggest that GOSAT and OCO-2 data, can effectively improve the carbon flux estimates in the northern hemisphere, while in the southern hemisphere the optimized carbon sinks may be overestimated, especially for GOSAT data.

scholarly journals Analysis of Carbon Flux in Terrestrial Ecosystems from GOSAT Data in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 03012
Author(s):  
Lanlan Zhang ◽  
Jinye Zhang ◽  
Hui Lv ◽  
Bangwu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Carbon Flux ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Net Ecosystem Exchange ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

In recent years, the evaluation of carbon sources and carbon sinks has become one of the major research topics. The temporal and spatial distribution of carbon flux and some factors that affect carbon flux were analyzed in this paper based on the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) data, which were provided by Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) project and FLUXNET project. Then, we found that carbon flux had obvious seasonal variation. It was carbon sink in summer and carbon source in winter. The total amount of carbon flux in July or August was about -1.377 ~ -1.882 gcm-2day-1, and 0.64 gcm-2day-1 in November. The fluctuation of carbon flux in coastal area was stronger than that in inland. Forest areas had stronger carbon storage capacity than that in other vegetation areas, and the flux in forest areas had the largest change. The vegetation coverage was larger, and the carbon storage capacity was stronger.

scholarly journals Biological control of the terrestrial carbon sink

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.-D. Schulze
Keyword(s):  
Stomatal Conductance ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Microbial Respiration ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Carbon Gain ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Future ◽  
Main Factor

Abstract. This lecture reviews the past (since 1964 when the International Biological Program began) and the future of our understanding of terrestrial carbon fluxes with focus on photosynthesis, respiration, primary-, ecosystem-, and biome-productivity. Photosynthetic capacity is related to the nitrogen concentration of leaves, but the capacity is only rarely reached under field conditions. Average rates of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance are closely correlated and operate near 50% of their maximal rate, with light being the limiting factor in humid regions and air humidity and soil water the limiting factor in arid climates. Leaf area is the main factor to extrapolate from leaves to canopies, with maximum surface conductance being dependent on leaf level stomatal conductance. Additionally, gas exchange depends also on rooting depth which determines the water and nutrient availability and on mycorrhizae which regulate the nutrient status. An important anthropogenic disturbance is the nitrogen uptake from air pollutants, which is not balanced by cation uptake from roots and this may lead to damage and breakdown of the plant cover. Photosynthesis is the main carbon input into ecosystems, but it alone does not represent the ecosystem carbon balance, which is determined by respiration of various kinds. Plant respiration and photosynthesis determine growth (net primary production) and microbial respiration balances the net ecosystem flux. In a spruce forest, 30% of the assimilatory carbon gain is used for respiration of needles, 20% is used for respiration in stems. Soil respiration is about 50% the carbon gain, half of which is root respiration, half is microbial respiration. In addition, disturbances lead to carbon losses, where fire, harvest and grazing bypass the chain of respiration. In total, the carbon balance at the biome level is only about 1% of the photosynthetic carbon input, or may indeed become negative. The recent observed increase in plant growth has different reasons depending on the region of the world: anthropogenic nitrogen deposition is the controlling factor in Europe, increasing global temperatures is the main factor in Siberia, and maybe rising CO2 the factor controlling the carbon fluxes in Amazonia. However, this has not lead to increases in net biome productivity, due to associated losses. Also important is the interaction between biodiversity and biogeochemical processes. It is shown that net primary productivity increases with plant species diversity (50% species loss equals 20% loss in productivity). However, in this extrapolation the action of soil biota is poorly understood although soils contribute the largest number of species and of taxonomic groups to an ecosystem. The global terrestrial carbon budget strongly depends on areas with pristine old growth forests which are carbon sinks. The management options are very limited, mostly short term, and usually associated with high uncertainty. Unmanaged grasslands appear to be a carbon sink of similar magnitude as forest, but generally these ecosystems lost their C with grazing and agricultural use. Extrapolation to the future of Earth climate shows that the biota will not be able to balance fossil fuel emissions, and that it will be essential to develop a carbon free energy system in order to maintain the living conditions on earth.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes of Net Ecosystem Production in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Da Guo ◽  
Xiaoning Song ◽  
Ronghai Hu ◽  
Xinming Zhu ◽  
Yazhen Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Geostatistical Model ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Difference

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is one of the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the world. Several studies have been conducted on the dynamic changes of grassland in the HKH region, but few have considered grassland net ecosystem productivity (NEP). In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of NEP magnitude and the influence of climate factors on the HKH region from 2001 to 2018. The NEP magnitude was obtained by calculating the difference between the net primary production (NPP) estimated by the Carnegie–Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the heterotrophic respiration (Rh) estimated by the geostatistical model. The results showed that the grassland ecosystem in the HKH region exhibited weak net carbon uptake with NEP values of 42.03 gC∙m−2∙yr−1, and the total net carbon sequestration was 0.077 Pg C. The distribution of NEP gradually increased from west to east, and in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, it gradually increased from northwest to southeast. The grassland carbon sources and sinks differed at different altitudes. The grassland was a carbon sink at 3000–5000 m, while grasslands below 3000 m and above 5000 m were carbon sources. Grassland NEP exhibited the strongest correlation with precipitation, and it had a lagging effect on precipitation. The correlation between NEP and the precipitation of the previous year was stronger than that of the current year. NEP was negatively correlated with temperature but not with solar radiation. The study of the temporal and spatial dynamics of NEP in the HKH region can provide a theoretical basis to help herders balance grazing and forage.

scholarly journals Reduced resilience of terrestrial ecosystems locally is not reflected on a global scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhao Feng ◽  
Haojie Su ◽  
Zhiyao Tang ◽  
Shaopeng Wang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ecological Resilience ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Ecosystem Resilience

AbstractGlobal climate change likely alters the structure and function of vegetation and the stability of terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to assess the factors controlling ecosystem resilience from local to global scales. Here we assess terrestrial vegetation resilience over the past 35 years using early warning indicators calculated from normalized difference vegetation index data. On a local scale we find that climate change reduced the resilience of ecosystems in 64.5% of the global terrestrial vegetated area. Temperature had a greater influence on vegetation resilience than precipitation, while climate mean state had a greater influence than climate variability. However, there is no evidence for decreased ecological resilience on larger scales. Instead, climate warming increased spatial asynchrony of vegetation which buffered the global-scale impacts on resilience. We suggest that the response of terrestrial ecosystem resilience to global climate change is scale-dependent and influenced by spatial asynchrony on the global scale.

scholarly journals Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2791-2808 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Tang ◽  
P. A. Miller ◽  
A. Persson ◽  
D. Olefeldt ◽  
P. Pilesjö ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Carbon Exchange ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Flux Dynamics ◽  
Ecosystem Responses

Abstract. A large amount of organic carbon is stored in high-latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment at 50 m resolution. Integrating the observed carbon fluxes from aquatic systems with the modeled terrestrial carbon fluxes across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modeled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this study also highlights some limitations in modeling subarctic ecosystem responses to climate change, such as aquatic system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory and other disturbances, and peatland expansion, our study provides one process-based approach to resolve the complexity of carbon cycling in subarctic ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out the key model developments for capturing complex subarctic processes.

scholarly journals A global CO<sub>2</sub> flux dataset (2015–2019) inferred from OCO-2 retrievals using the Tan-Tracker inversion system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Jin ◽  
Xiangjun Tian ◽  
Rui Han ◽  
Yu Fu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Flux ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Global Carbon Cycle ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Regional Fluxes

Abstract. Accurate assessment of the various sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), especially terrestrial ecosystem and ocean fluxes with high uncertainties, is important for understanding of the global carbon cycle, supporting the formulation of climate policies, and projecting future climate change. Satellite retrievals of the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) are being widely used to improve carbon flux estimation due to their broad spatial coverage. However, there is no consensus on the robust estimates of regional fluxes. In this study, we present a global and regional resolved terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux (NEE) and ocean carbon flux dataset for 2015–2019. The dataset was generated using the Tan-Tracker inversion system by assimilating Observing Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) column CO2 retrievals. The posterior NEE and ocean carbon fluxes were comprehensively validated by comparing posterior simulated CO2 concentrations with OCO-2 independent retrievals and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) measurements. The validation showed that posterior carbon fluxes significantly improved the modelling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with global mean biases of 0.33 ppm against OCO-2 retrievals and 0.12 ppm against TCCON measurements. We described the characteristics of the dataset at global, regional, and Tibetan Plateau scales in terms of the carbon budget, annual and seasonal variations, and spatial distribution. The posterior 5-year annual mean global atmospheric CO2 growth rate was 5.35 PgC yr−1, which was within the uncertainty of the Global Carbon Budget 2020 estimate (5.49 PgC yr−1). The posterior annual mean NEE and ocean carbon fluxes were −4.07 and −3.33 PgC yr−1, respectively. Regional fluxes were analysed based on TransCom partitioning. All 11 land regions acted as carbon sinks, except for Tropical South America, which was almost neutral. The strongest carbon sinks were located in Boreal Asia, followed by Temperate Asia and North Africa. The entire Tibetan Plateau ecosystem was estimated as a carbon sink, taking up −49.52 TgC yr−1 on average, with the strongest sink occurring in eastern alpine meadows. These results indicate that our dataset captures surface carbon fluxes well and provides insight into the global carbon cycle. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.11888/Meteoro.tpdc.271317 (Jin et al., 2021).

scholarly journals Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 10875-10933 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Cionni ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
J. F. Lamarque ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract. A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multi-model mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and PUCCINI) and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23 W m−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08 W m−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05 W m−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05 W m−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1 W m−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

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