Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

The Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation Index (WASP-Index) was computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales (3-month, 6-month and 12-month) in 1961–2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and between 2021 and 2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The area-mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12-month WASP (12m-WASP) intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3-month WASP (3m-WASP) intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase (mostly the severest events under RCP4.5) but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent 12m-WASP wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase/decrease of the intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry/wet events was found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia (mainly Comunidad Valenciana, Región de Murcia, Andalucía in Spain, Alentejo, and Algarve in Portugal), thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future. This finding corroborates the results of previous studies.

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Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

10.20944/preprints202104.0577.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Cristina Andrade ◽

Joana Contente ◽

João Andrade Santos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Patterns ◽

Climate Model ◽

Frequency Of Occurrence ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Upward Trend ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Mean Values ◽

The Future ◽

Good Agreement

The WASP-Index is computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales in 1961-2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and in 2021-2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The WASP performance in identifying extremely dry or wet events, reported by the EM-DAT disaster database, is assessed for 1961–2020. An overall good agreement between the WASP spatial patterns and the EM-DAT records is found. The areolar mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12m-WASP intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3m-WASP intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase, mostly the severest events under RCP4.5, but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent (12m-WASP) wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase(decrease) of the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry(wet) events is found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia, thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future, corroborating the results from previous studies.

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Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli1807.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (8) ◽

pp. 1944-1961 ◽

Cited By ~ 75

Author(s):

Bariş Önol ◽

Fredrick H. M. Semazzi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources in the Nile Basin using a regional climate model ensemble

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1307/6/29/292017 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 6 (29) ◽

pp. 292017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Carlo Buontempo ◽

J K Lørup ◽

M A Antar ◽

M Sanderson ◽

M B Butts ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Nile Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.2006.592 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 54 (6-7) ◽

pp. 9-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

M. Grum ◽

A.T. Jørgensen ◽

R.M. Johansen ◽

J.J. Linde

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Rain Gauge ◽

Urban Drainage ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Rainfall Extremes ◽

The Future ◽

Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

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Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II ◽

10.2151/jmsj.2013-401 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 91 (4) ◽

pp. 413-429 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Xiaoge XIN ◽

Li ZHANG ◽

Jie ZHANG ◽

Tongwen WU ◽

Yongjie FANG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

East Asia ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Rcp Scenarios

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Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

Geospatial health ◽

10.4081/gh.2016.393 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (1s) ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Joseph Leedale ◽

Adrian M. Tompkins ◽

Cyril Caminade ◽

Anne E. Jones ◽

Grigory Nikulin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Malaria Transmission ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

East African Community ◽

Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

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Impact of climate change on hydropower production in the Upper Danube

10.5194/ems2021-493 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ignacio Martin Santos ◽

Mathew Herrnegger ◽

Hubert Holzmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Transfer Functions ◽

Danube River ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810km2 with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m3/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the &#8220;Green Deal&#8221; initiative.Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.&#160;&#160;References:Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987&#8211;999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057&#160;

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Multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections for the plain areas of the Pannonian Basin

Időjárás ◽

10.28974/idojaras.2020.2.2 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 124 (2) ◽

pp. 157-190

Author(s):

Anna Kis ◽

Rita Pongrácz ◽

Judit Bartholy ◽

Milan Gocic ◽

Mladen Milanovic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pannonian Basin ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Climate Change Projections

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The future of European floodplain wetlands under a changing climate

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2011.020 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (2-3) ◽

pp. 106-122 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Christof Schneider ◽

Martina Flörke ◽

Gertjan Geerling ◽

Harm Duel ◽

Mateusz Grygoruk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Scale ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Floodplain Wetlands ◽

Potential Threat ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

The Future ◽

Floodplain Inundation

In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change represents a potential threat to river ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States (SCENES) project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges that are then used to: (i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, (ii) determine three different inundation parameters, and (iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Results of this study indicate that in snow-affected catchments (e.g. in Central and Eastern Europe) inundation may appear earlier in the year. Duration and volume of inundation are expected to decrease. This will lead to a reduction in habitat for fish, vertebrates, water birds and floodplain-specific vegetation causing a loss in biodiversity, floodplain productivity and fish production. Contradictory results occur in Spain, France, Southern England and the Benelux countries. This reflects the uncertainties of current climate modelling for specific seasons.

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