Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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Flood risk assessment methodology for planning under climate change scenarios and the corresponding change in land cover

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.016 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1370-1382 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Asma Hanif ◽

Ashwin Dhanasekar ◽

Anthony Keene ◽

Huishu Li ◽

Kenneth Carlson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

The United States ◽

Army Corps ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Daily Precipitation Data ◽

Time Frames

Abstract Projected climate change impacts on the hydrological regime and corresponding flood risks were examined for the years 2030 (near-term) and 2050 (long-term), under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (moderate) and 8.5 (high) emission scenarios. The United States Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System was used to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of the various dendritic watershed systems and USACEs' Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System hydraulic model was used for the two-dimensional unsteady flow flood calculations. Climate projections are based on recent global climate model simulations developed for the International Panel on Climate Change, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. Hydrographs for frequent (high-recurrence interval) storms were derived from 30-year historical daily precipitation data and decadal projections for both time frames and RCP scenarios. Since the climate projections for each scenario only represented ten years of data, 100-year or 500-year storms cannot be derived. Hence, this novel approach of identifying frequent storms is used as an indicator to compare across the various time frames and climate scenarios. Hydrographs were used to generate inundation maps and results are used to identify vulnerabilities and formulate adaptation strategies to flooding at 43 locations worldwide.

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Projected Changes of Precipitation IDF Curves for Short Duration under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology5030033 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 33 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Nguyen Tien Thanh ◽

Luca Dutto Aldo Remo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Data ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Central Vietnam ◽

Idf Curves ◽

Projected Changes

In future years, extreme weather events are expected to frequently increase due to climate change, especially in the combination of climate change and events of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This pays special attention to the construction of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves at a tempo-spatial scale of sub-daily and sub-grid under a context of climate change. The reason for this is that IDF curves represent essential means to study effects on the performance of drainage systems, damps, dikes and reservoirs. Therefore, the objective of this study is to present an approach to construct future IDF curves with high temporo-spatial resolutions under climate change in central Vietnam, using the case of VuGia-ThuBon. The climate data of historical and future from a regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three global models MPI-ESM-MR, IPSL-CM5A-LR and ICHEC-EC-EARTH are used to re-grid the resolution of 10 km × 10 km grid spacing from 25 km × 25 km on the base of bilinear interpolation. A bias correction method is then applied to the finest resolution of a hydrostatic climate model for an ensemble of simulations. Furthermore, the IDF curves for short durations of precipitation are constructed for the historical climate and future climates under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on terms of correlation factors. The major findings show that the projected precipitation changes are expected to significantly increase by about 10 to 30% under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes of a maximum of 1-, 2-, and 3-days precipitation are expected to increase by about 30–300 mm/day. More importantly, for all return periods (i.e., 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years), IDF curves completely constructed for short durations of precipitation at sub-daily show an increase in intensities for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

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Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽

10.3390/w11030587 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 587 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Evdokia Tapoglou ◽

Anthi Vozinaki ◽

Ioannis Tsanis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Frequency Analysis ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

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Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-14-1247-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (7) ◽

pp. 1247-1258 ◽

Cited By ~ 117

Author(s):

W. Buytaert ◽

M. Vuille ◽

A. Dewulf ◽

R. Urrutia ◽

A. Karmalkar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resources Management ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Tropical Andes ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Resources Management

Abstract. Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.

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How Much Should Climate Model Output Be Smoothed in Space?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3872.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 867-880 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Jouni Räisänen ◽

Jussi S. Ylhäisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Small Scale ◽

Model Output ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Local Conditions ◽

Climate Model Output ◽

Mean Climate

Abstract The general decrease in the quality of climate model output with decreasing scale suggests a need for spatial smoothing to suppress the most unreliable small-scale features. However, even if correctly simulated, a large-scale average retained by the smoothing may not be representative of the local conditions, which are of primary interest in many impact studies. Here, the authors study this trade-off using simulations of temperature and precipitation by 24 climate models within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, to find the scale of smoothing at which the mean-square difference between smoothed model output and gridbox-scale reality is minimized. This is done for present-day time mean climate, recent temperature trends, and projections of future climate change, using cross validation between the models for the latter. The optimal scale depends strongly on the number of models used, being much smaller for multimodel means than for individual model simulations. It also depends on the variable considered and, in the case of climate change projections, the time horizon. For multimodel-mean climate change projections for the late twenty-first century, only very slight smoothing appears to be beneficial, and the resulting potential improvement is negligible for practical purposes. The use of smoothing as a means to improve the sampling for probabilistic climate change projections is also briefly explored.

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Climate Change Projections over CORDEX East Asia Domain using Multi-RCMs

Journal of Climate Research ◽

10.14383/cri.2014.9.4.257 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 257-268 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Gayoung Kim ◽

◽

Jineun Kim ◽

Chun-Ji Kim ◽

Chun-Sil Jin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

East Asia ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Cordex East Asia

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Temperature Extremes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Climate Change Projections

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ◽

10.1080/07055900.2014.886179 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 52 (3) ◽

pp. 191-210 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Barbara Casati ◽

Ramon de Elía

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Temperature Extremes ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Canadian Regional Climate Model

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The Sensitivity of Regional Climate Projections to SSP-Based Land Use Changes in the North American CORDEX Domain

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5906 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Melissa Bukovsky ◽

Linda Mearns ◽

Jing Gao ◽

Brian O'Neill

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

North American ◽

Land Surface ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The North

In order to assess the combined effects of green-house-gas-induced climate change and land-use land-cover change (LULCC), we have produced regional climate model (RCM) simulations that are complementary to the North-American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) simulations, but with future LULCCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).&#160; In standard, existing NA-CORDEX simulations, land surface characteristics are held constant at present day conditions.&#160; These new simulations, in conjunction with the NA-CORDEX simulations, will help us assess the magnitude of the changes in regional climate forced by LULCC relative to those produced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;Understanding the magnitude of the regional climate effects of LULCC is important to the SSP-RCP scenarios framework. &#160;Whether or not the pattern of climate change resulting from a given SSP-RCP pairing is sensitive to the pattern of LULCC is an understudied problem.&#160; This work helps address this question, and will inform thinking about possible needed modifications to the scenarios framework to better account for climate-land use interactions.Accordingly, in this presentation, we will examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without SSP-driven LULCCs in RCM simulations produced using WRF under the RCP8.5 concentration scenario.&#160; The included LULCC change effects have been created following the SSP3 and SSP5 narratives using an existing agricultural land model linked with a new long-term spatial urban land model.&#160;

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