scholarly journals Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-161
Author(s):  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mechanisms Of Action ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able to identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus on increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

scholarly journals Analysis of key factors of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination program: A mathematical modeling approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva-Micó
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mechanisms Of Action ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) just started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential future scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus in increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of Alcoholism Among Colombian College Students

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (32) ◽  
pp. 195-223
Author(s):  
Edgardo Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
College Students ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Drinking Behavior ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
Consumption Behavior ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Drugs And Crime ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we present a nonlinear mathematical model, describing the spread of high-risk alcohol consumption behavior among college students in Colombia. We proved the existence and stability of the alcohol-free and drinking state equilibrium by means of Lyapunov function and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Also, we apply optimal control to study the impact of a preventive measure on the spread of drinking behavior among college students. Finally, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Colombian Ministry of Justice to validate the obtained mathematical model.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES IN THE SYSTEM OF STAKEHOLDER RELATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Velychko ◽  
Evgeniy Grytskov ◽  
Dmytriy Prunenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
External Control ◽  
Construction Enterprise ◽  
Stakeholder Relations ◽  
Construction Enterprises ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Quantitative Basis ◽  
Sound Management ◽  
The Impact

The relevance of the process of implementation of economic and mathematical model of investment attractiveness of the construction enterprise in the stakeholder relation system is proved. The results of the analysis of the theoretical provisions for determining investment attractiveness and stakeholders of construction enterprises are presented. An economic and mathematical model for the formation of stakeholder groups in the system of relations with construction enterprises is proposed. A system of information and analytical support for an integrated assessment of the level of stakeholder relations and investment attractiveness of construction enterprises has been formed, which creates the basis for economic and mathematical modeling. The directions, methods, and models for assessing investment attractiveness and the level of stakeholder relations of construction enterprises are proposed. The practical aspects of their implementation are determined. The results of economic and mathematical modeling of the investment attractiveness of construction enterprises in the system of stakeholder relations are presented. The subject of the research is the directions of formation and realization of economic and mathematical modeling of investment attractiveness of enterprises in the system of stakeholder relations. The formation of the research methodology is carried out on the basis of the theoretical and methodological platform for determining the investment attractiveness of enterprises and stakeholders that interact in the relevant field. In addition, a set of methods is used to conduct the study: analytical (to determine indicators of investment attractiveness); expert assessments (to determine the index of stakeholder relations); method of analysis of hierarchies (to assess the importance of the impact of stakeholders (customers of construction products; workers of construction enterprises; top management; managers of various levels of construction enterprises; owners of construction enterprises; government bodies influencing the formation and level of interaction of stakeholders with construction enterprises; public organizations influencing activities in construction and architecture; corporate governance bodies of construction enterprises; the bodies of internal and external control interacting in the construction industry; the competitors of construction enterprises; the suppliers of inventories interacting with construction enterprises; stakeholders interacting in the formation and use of spatial, urban, environmental information and creating investment attractiveness of construction enterprises; the design organizations; other stakeholders interacting with construction enterprises) at the level of stakeholders from noses of enterprises); economic and mathematical modeling (to establish causal links between the level of stakeholder relations and the index of investment attractiveness of enterprises); generalization and systematization (to obtain and interpret research results). The aim of the study is to establish causal relationships between the factors that shape the level of stakeholder relations and investment attractiveness of construction companies based on economic and mathematical tools. The result of the study is the formation of a quantitative basis for making sound management decisions in the system of stakeholder relations of construction companies to increase their investment attractiveness.

scholarly journals Modeling the Influence of Vaccine Administration on COVID-19 Testing Strategies

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2546
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Forde ◽  
Stanca M. Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and resistance to vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with variants of increased transmissibility. We found that, for low transmissibility variants, testing was most effective when vaccination levels were low to moderate and its impact was diminished when vaccination levels were high. For high transmissibility variants, widespread vaccination was necessary in order for testing to have a significant impact on preventing outbreaks, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Rehabilitation Centers on Illicit Drug Usage

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isa Baba ◽  
Saudatu Baba Sambo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Drug Users ◽  
Illicit Drug ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Drug Usage ◽  
Rehabilitation Centers ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper presents a mathematical model that studies the importance of treatment at rehabilitation centers intending to show the impact of the rehabilitation centers in minimizing illicit drug usage. We consider the global stability of endemic equilibrium using the properties of Volterra-Lyapunov matrices. Numerical simulations were carried out to show the impact of rehabilitation centers on illicit drug users.

scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the control of COVID-19 in Iran: A mathematical modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehran Nakhaeizadeh ◽  
Sana Eybpoosh ◽  
Yunes Jahani ◽  
Milad Ahmadi Gohari ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
East Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Middle East Region ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background During the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths in the Middle East region. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions. Methods We used a modified susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from 21 January to 21 September 2020, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We used the model to assess the effectiveness of physical distancing measures and self-isolation under different scenarios. We also estimated the control reproductive number (Rc), using our mathematical model and epidemiologic data. Results If no non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were applied, there could have been a cumulative number of 51,800,000 (95% UI: 19,100,000–77,600,000) COVID-19 infections and 266,000 (95% UI: 119,000–476,000) deaths by September 21 2020. If physical distancing interventions, such as school/border closures and self-isolation interventions, had been introduced a week earlier than they were actually launched, a 30% reduction in the number of infections and deaths could have been achieved by September 21 2020. The observed daily number of deaths showed that the Rc was one or more than one almost every day during the analysis period. Conclusions Our models suggest that the NPIs implemented in Iran between 21 January and 21 September 2020 had significant effects on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Therefore, we recommend that these interventions are considered when designing future control programs, while simultaneously considering innovative approaches that can minimize harmful economic impacts on the community and the state. Our study also showed that the timely implementation of NPIs showed a profound effect on further reductions in the numbers of infections and deaths. This highlights the importance of forecasting and early detection of future waves of infection and of the need for effective preparedness and response capabilities.

scholarly journals Modeling the influence of vaccine administration on COVID-19 testing strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Forde ◽  
Stanca Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Lower Response ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and lower response the vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an increasingly vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with alpha and delta variants. We found that, when the alpha variant is dominant, testing is effective when vaccination levels are low to moderate and its impact is diminished when vaccination levels are high. When the delta variant is dominant, widespread vaccination is necessary in order to prevent significant outbreaks. When only moderate vaccination can be achieved, frequent testing can significantly reduce the cumulative size of delta variant outbreak, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

scholarly journals IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MEASURES FOR THE PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL INJURY ON THE BASIS OF MODELING THE OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY SYSTEM IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
T. Tairova ◽  
N. Romanenko ◽  
О. Slipachuk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mechanical Engineering ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Labor Protection ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Industrial Injuries ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work іncreasing the effectiveness of measures for the prevention industrial injuries on the basis of modeling the labor protection system in mechanical engineering. To develop effective management decisions on industrial safety, mathematical model of the labor protection system for mechanical engineering was built. It was taking into account the legal, socio-economic and organizational components. The studies was based on actual statistical data of the causes and consequences of occupational injuries in mechanical engineering over 12 years. The feasibility of using the method of mathematical modeling based on indicators of injury is justified, since this approach links preventive measures in the field of labor protection with the results of risk assessment and reduces the subjectivity of management decisions. The mathematical model of the labor protection system allows to increase the effectiveness of measures to reduce production risks in mechanical engineering, taking into account the actions or inaction of the employee and the employer, and to optimize the amount of penalties for the employee and employer for violation of labor and production discipline. The expediency of introducing the effective legal mechanism for regulating the responsibility of the employee and the employer as subjects of labor law for meeting labor protection requirements has been substantiated. The proposed measures for the prevention of industrial injuries are universal. The algorithm for making management decisions to reduce the risk of injuries in mechanical engineering, which involves the use of criteria for selecting measures based on the results of mathematical modeling of occupational safety (employee, employer). The proposed approach to occupational safety management in mechanical engineering enterprises is based on a component method of assessing the occurrence of traumatic events due to the actions or inaction of the employee and the employer. This model differs from the existing ones because it takes into account the available statistical information related to the risk of dangerous situations in the industry and the level of employee and employer compliance with occupational safety regulations stimulates prevention and allows to establish the dependence of production risk labor protection and reduce the impact of the subjective component of expert judgments.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Carbon Dioxide on Marine Plankton

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Photosynthetic Activity ◽  
Marine Plankton ◽  
The Impact

Marine plankton is the main absorber of environmental carbon dioxide. According to scientists, the marine plankton not only absorbs approximately 30-50% carbon dioxide but also supplies about 70% oxygen of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide helps the marine plankton to carry on the photosynthetic activity which promotes the growth of the planktonic population. As a result, the increasing plankton absorbs more saturated carbon dioxide and supplies more oxygen. In this article, a mathematical model has been proposed to describe the contribution of carbon dioxide on marine plankton. We have analyzed the model both analytically and numerically. The study discloses natural behaviors along with mathematical modeling.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of the Resistance of Pulling out Steel Bars from High Strength Concrete

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.2) ◽  
pp. 516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yevgenij Babych ◽  
Sergij Filipchuk ◽  
Oleksiy Fenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
High Strength Concrete ◽  
High Strength ◽  
Strength Concrete ◽  
Steel Bars ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Experimental Researches ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The article gives the results of the experimental researches of the bond between steel and high strength concrete. According to these results the mathematical model was built to define the boundary stresses of the bond between steel and concrete on their contact surface. The analysis of the impact of the specific factors on the boundary stresses of the bond between steel and concrete was carried out. 

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