scholarly journals Modeling the influence of vaccine administration on COVID-19 testing strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Forde ◽  
Stanca Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Lower Response ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and lower response the vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an increasingly vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with alpha and delta variants. We found that, when the alpha variant is dominant, testing is effective when vaccination levels are low to moderate and its impact is diminished when vaccination levels are high. When the delta variant is dominant, widespread vaccination is necessary in order to prevent significant outbreaks. When only moderate vaccination can be achieved, frequent testing can significantly reduce the cumulative size of delta variant outbreak, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

scholarly journals Modeling the Influence of Vaccine Administration on COVID-19 Testing Strategies

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2546
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Forde ◽  
Stanca M. Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and resistance to vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with variants of increased transmissibility. We found that, for low transmissibility variants, testing was most effective when vaccination levels were low to moderate and its impact was diminished when vaccination levels were high. For high transmissibility variants, widespread vaccination was necessary in order for testing to have a significant impact on preventing outbreaks, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

scholarly journals Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Bosetti ◽  
Cécile Tran Kiem ◽  
Yazdan Yazdanpanah ◽  
Arnaud Fontanet ◽  
Bruno Lina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling Study

We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20–30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.

The Impact of Light Polarisation on Light Field of Scenes with Multiple Reflections

2020 ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir P. Budak ◽  
Anton V. Grimaylo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Light Field ◽  
Global Illumination ◽  
Multiple Reflections ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mueller Matrices ◽  
Volume Integration ◽  
The Impact

The article describes the role of polarisation in calculation of multiple reflections. A mathematical model of multiple reflections based on the Stokes vector for beam description and Mueller matrices for description of surface properties is presented. On the basis of this model, the global illumination equation is generalised for the polarisation case and is resolved into volume integration. This allows us to obtain an expression for the Monte Carlo method local estimates and to use them for evaluation of light distribution in the scene with consideration of polarisation. The obtained mathematical model was implemented in the software environment using the example of a scene with its surfaces having both diffuse and regular components of reflection. The results presented in the article show that the calculation difference may reach 30 % when polarisation is taken into consideration as compared to standard modelling.

scholarly journals A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Rita Caldarella ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Subjects ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government's decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices.

Human capital assessment model based on a single digital platformof scientific and educational resources

2021 ◽  
pp. 107-120
Author(s):  
Viktor Medennikov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Quality Education ◽  
Educational Resources ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
High Quality ◽  
High Quality Education ◽  
The Impact

The article substantiates the need to re-evaluate the role of human capital in the development of society in the digital age. Since high-quality education is the main direction of the formation of human capital in any country, the importance of creating an information space for scientific and educational institutions is demonstrated. A methodology for assessing the level of human capital on the basis of information scientific and educational resources is proposed. The author presents results of calculations obtained by this method on the example of agricultural educational institutions and a mathematical model for assessing the impact of human capital on the socio-economic situation of the regions.

scholarly journals Cardiac Troponin Testing in Patients with COVID-19: A Strategy for Testing and Reporting Results

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Kavsak ◽  
Ola Hammarsten ◽  
Andrew Worster ◽  
Stephen W Smith ◽  
Fred S Apple
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Cardiovascular System ◽  
Cardiac Troponin ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Prognostic Indicator ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Testing Strategies

Abstract Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that emerged late in 2019 causing COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) may adversely affect the cardiovascular system. Publications from Asia, Europe, and North America have identified cardiac troponin as an important prognostic indicator for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We recognized from publications within the first 6 months of the pandemic that there has been much uncertainty on the reporting, interpretation, and pathophysiology of an increased cardiac troponin concentration in this setting. Content The purpose of this mini-review is: a) to review the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 and the cardiovascular system, b) to overview the strengths and weaknesses of selected studies evaluating cardiac troponin in patients with COVID-19, and c) to recommend testing strategies in the acute period, in the convalescence period and in long-term care for patients who have become ill with COVID-19. Summary This review provides important educational information and identifies gaps in understanding the role of cardiac troponin and COVID-19. Future, properly designed studies will hopefully provide the much-needed evidence on the path forward in testing cardiac troponin in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals United States Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic plan: evaluation of the role of industry funding in published pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) literature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Somya Gupta ◽  
Reuben Granich
Keyword(s):  
Industry Funding ◽  
Potential Conflict ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
The Us ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Corporate Support ◽  
Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
The Impact

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is integral to the US End of AIDS strategy. However, low adherence, high costs, frequent testing and monitoring side effects make delivery of PrEP complicated. Gilead has sponsored PrEP-related research efforts and access as part of its marketing efforts. We review potential conflict of interests (COI) in the scientific literature for the US PrEP related articles to understand the impact of Gilead’s corporate sponsorship.We identified 93 US PrEP articles published in the top 10 medical journals and top 10 HIV/AIDS journals in 2018. There were 289 first three and senior authors in these articles, of which, 34 (11%) declared a Gilead COI and 28 (10%) had undeclared Gilead COI. Only 10 authors accounted for 50% of the articles, with 70% of them having potential COI including receiving grants, fees and study drugs. The 93 articles were associated with 51 leading institutions (institution of three or more authors or participating institutions in a trial). Authors from 12 (24%) institutions declared an institutional Gilead COI and 22 (45%) institutions had undeclared Gilead support. Overall, of the 93 included articles, 30 (32%) had declared Gilead COI. Combining declared and undeclared COIs for authors and institutions provided an overall 83 (89%) articles with a potential Gilead COI. Of the 93 articles, 60 (71%) had favorable conclusions in 60 (71%). Declared Gilead support was significantly associated with favorable article conclusions (p<.05) but combined declared/undeclared author and/or institutional Gilead support was not associated with favorable conclusion. Nearly 90% of US PrEP articles had Gilead support and authors failed to report individual or institutional COI in 70% of articles. Direct corporate support is important for scientific research. However, Gilead’s marketing push for PrEP, undeclared COI, and potential influence of Gilead supported authors are of concern given the potential impact on the scientific discourse and the US HIV control strategy.

scholarly journals Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-161
Author(s):  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mechanisms Of Action ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able to identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus on increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Rain on Population Exposed to Air Pollution

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 363-370
Author(s):  
Sandeep Sharma ◽  
Nitu Kumari
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Living Species ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concentration Of Air Pollutants

AbstractAir pollution is caused by contamination of air due to various natural and anthropogenic activities. The growing air pollution has diverse adverse effects on human health and other living species. However, a significant reduction in the concentration of air pollutants has been observed during the rainy season. Recently, a number of studies have been performed to understand the mechanism of removal of air pollutants due to the rain. These studies have found that rain is helpful in removing many air pollutants from the environment. In this paper, we proposed a mathematical model to investigate the role of rain in the removal of air pollutants and its subsequent impacts on the human population.

scholarly journals Insights into COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617.2)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angel Yun-Kuan Thye ◽  
Ke-Yan Loo ◽  
Kyle Bond Chene Tan ◽  
Jenny May-Sim Lau ◽  
Vengadesh Letchumanan
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Clinical Implications ◽  
Vaccine Booster ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Since beginning of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), different variants of concern (VOC) have been discovered. One of the variants that stood out was the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first found in India. It caught worldwide attention due to its greater transmissibility than the progenitor strain and the first variant of concern (VOC)- Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). B.1.617.2 spread rapidly across the globe and became a VOC due to its high transmissibility, clinical implications, and impact on vaccine efficacy. This review discusses the background and prevalence of B.1.617.2 and its sensitivity to convalescent sera and vaccinated individuals. We will provide an insight into the impact B.1.617.2 has on vaccine efficacy and discuss the level and type of protection an individual could get by being vaccinated. We will also discuss briefly on the COVID-19 vaccine booster doses and whether it is needed.

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