scholarly journals Modeling the Influence of Vaccine Administration on COVID-19 Testing Strategies

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2546
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Forde ◽  
Stanca M. Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and resistance to vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with variants of increased transmissibility. We found that, for low transmissibility variants, testing was most effective when vaccination levels were low to moderate and its impact was diminished when vaccination levels were high. For high transmissibility variants, widespread vaccination was necessary in order for testing to have a significant impact on preventing outbreaks, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

scholarly journals Modeling the influence of vaccine administration on COVID-19 testing strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Forde ◽  
Stanca Ciupe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Lower Response ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination is considered the best strategy for limiting and eliminating the COVID-19 pandemic. The success of this strategy relies on the rate of vaccine deployment and acceptance across the globe. As these efforts are being conducted, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is continuously mutating, which leads to the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and lower response the vaccines. One important question is whether surveillance testing is still needed in order to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an increasingly vaccinated population. In this study, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a vaccinated population and used it to predict the role of testing in an outbreak with alpha and delta variants. We found that, when the alpha variant is dominant, testing is effective when vaccination levels are low to moderate and its impact is diminished when vaccination levels are high. When the delta variant is dominant, widespread vaccination is necessary in order to prevent significant outbreaks. When only moderate vaccination can be achieved, frequent testing can significantly reduce the cumulative size of delta variant outbreak, with the impact of testing having maximum effects when focused on the non-vaccinated population.

The Impact of Light Polarisation on Light Field of Scenes with Multiple Reflections

2020 ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir P. Budak ◽  
Anton V. Grimaylo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Light Field ◽  
Global Illumination ◽  
Multiple Reflections ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mueller Matrices ◽  
Volume Integration ◽  
The Impact

The article describes the role of polarisation in calculation of multiple reflections. A mathematical model of multiple reflections based on the Stokes vector for beam description and Mueller matrices for description of surface properties is presented. On the basis of this model, the global illumination equation is generalised for the polarisation case and is resolved into volume integration. This allows us to obtain an expression for the Monte Carlo method local estimates and to use them for evaluation of light distribution in the scene with consideration of polarisation. The obtained mathematical model was implemented in the software environment using the example of a scene with its surfaces having both diffuse and regular components of reflection. The results presented in the article show that the calculation difference may reach 30 % when polarisation is taken into consideration as compared to standard modelling.

scholarly journals A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Rita Caldarella ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Subjects ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government's decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices.

Human capital assessment model based on a single digital platformof scientific and educational resources

2021 ◽  
pp. 107-120
Author(s):  
Viktor Medennikov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Quality Education ◽  
Educational Resources ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
High Quality ◽  
High Quality Education ◽  
The Impact

The article substantiates the need to re-evaluate the role of human capital in the development of society in the digital age. Since high-quality education is the main direction of the formation of human capital in any country, the importance of creating an information space for scientific and educational institutions is demonstrated. A methodology for assessing the level of human capital on the basis of information scientific and educational resources is proposed. The author presents results of calculations obtained by this method on the example of agricultural educational institutions and a mathematical model for assessing the impact of human capital on the socio-economic situation of the regions.

scholarly journals Cardiac Troponin Testing in Patients with COVID-19: A Strategy for Testing and Reporting Results

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Kavsak ◽  
Ola Hammarsten ◽  
Andrew Worster ◽  
Stephen W Smith ◽  
Fred S Apple
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Cardiovascular System ◽  
Cardiac Troponin ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Prognostic Indicator ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Testing Strategies

Abstract Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that emerged late in 2019 causing COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) may adversely affect the cardiovascular system. Publications from Asia, Europe, and North America have identified cardiac troponin as an important prognostic indicator for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We recognized from publications within the first 6 months of the pandemic that there has been much uncertainty on the reporting, interpretation, and pathophysiology of an increased cardiac troponin concentration in this setting. Content The purpose of this mini-review is: a) to review the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 and the cardiovascular system, b) to overview the strengths and weaknesses of selected studies evaluating cardiac troponin in patients with COVID-19, and c) to recommend testing strategies in the acute period, in the convalescence period and in long-term care for patients who have become ill with COVID-19. Summary This review provides important educational information and identifies gaps in understanding the role of cardiac troponin and COVID-19. Future, properly designed studies will hopefully provide the much-needed evidence on the path forward in testing cardiac troponin in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-161
Author(s):  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mechanisms Of Action ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able to identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus on increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Rain on Population Exposed to Air Pollution

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 363-370
Author(s):  
Sandeep Sharma ◽  
Nitu Kumari
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Living Species ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concentration Of Air Pollutants

AbstractAir pollution is caused by contamination of air due to various natural and anthropogenic activities. The growing air pollution has diverse adverse effects on human health and other living species. However, a significant reduction in the concentration of air pollutants has been observed during the rainy season. Recently, a number of studies have been performed to understand the mechanism of removal of air pollutants due to the rain. These studies have found that rain is helpful in removing many air pollutants from the environment. In this paper, we proposed a mathematical model to investigate the role of rain in the removal of air pollutants and its subsequent impacts on the human population.

scholarly journals The Role of Serology Testing in the Context of Immunization Policies for COVID-19 in Latin American Countries

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2391
Author(s):  
Carlos E. dos Santos Ferreira ◽  
Hector Gómez-Dantés ◽  
Nancy C. Junqueira Bellei ◽  
Eduardo López ◽  
Katya A. Nogales Crespo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Literature Evidence ◽  
Barriers And Challenges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Serology Testing ◽  
Potential Use

This review aims to explore the role and value of serology testing in the context of COVID-19 immunization policies in Latin American countries and the barriers and challenges to the adequate use and uptake of this tool. It builds on a review of the academic literature, evidence, and existing policies, and includes a multistage process of discussion and feedback by a group of five experts. Regional and country-level evidence and resources from five focus countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—were collected and analyzed. This review contains an overview of (1) the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the variants of concern and current testing strategies, (2) the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination, (3) the potential use of serology testing to support immunization initiatives, (4) the current frameworks for the use of serology testing in the region, and (5) the barriers and challenges to implementing serology testing in the context of COVID-19 immunization policies, including a discussion on the potential actions required to address these barriers and facilitate the uptake of this strategy in the region. Stakeholders can use elements of this document to guide timely decision-making, raise awareness, and inspire further studies.

scholarly journals Symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 reinfection in a lupus patient treated with hydroxychloroquine: a case report

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Astrid Muyldermans ◽  
Piet Maes ◽  
Tony Wawina-Bokalanga ◽  
Tine Anthierens ◽  
Olivier Goldberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Humoral Immunity ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Detrimental Effect ◽  
First Episode ◽  
African Origin ◽  
Case Presentation ◽  
Black African ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been used for hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients because of their antiviral and anti-inflammatory function. However, little research has been published on the impact of the immunomodulatory effect of (hydroxy)chloroquine on humoral immunity. Case presentation We report a case of symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 reinfection, diagnosed 141 days after the first episode, in a 56-year-old man of Black African origin treated with hydroxychloroquine for lupus erythematosus. No anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 IgG antibodies could be detected 127 days after the initial episode of coronavirus disease 2019. Conclusions The treatment with hydroxychloroquine probably explains the decreased immune response with negative serology and subsequent reinfection in our patient. As humoral immunity is crucial to fight a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, the use of (hydroxy)chloroquine is likely to have a detrimental effect on the spread of the virus. This case emphasizes that more needs to be learned about the role of antibodies in protecting against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (re)infection and the role of (hydroxy)chloroquine on humoral immunity.

scholarly journals A MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO SET SPEED LIMITS FOR VEHICLES ON THE HIGHWAY

Transport ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 278-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunday Ayoola Oke ◽  
Ayokunle Bamigbaiye ◽  
Oluwafemi Isaac Oyedokun ◽  
Oliver Ekpere Charles-Owaba
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Impact Force ◽  
Speed Limits ◽  
Safety Feature ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Cause Of Deaths ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical model that could guide certain speed limits for vehicles on roads. Excessive speeds on roads have been a major indirect cause of deaths on highways due to the sudden impact of vehicles that lead to accidents. The model presented here is developed on a measure of impact force of two vehicles engaged in a head‐on collision. A hypothetical case study was investigated based on the impact of force on the human body. The results showed a variation of speed with occupation position distance. The paper also examines the role of seatbelt as a safety feature for vehicle occupants. Practically, developing a quantitative approach for evaluating the impacts of speed would help road regulatory authorities in reducing accidents and deaths on roads. It would also assist them in tracking “road traffic offenders” by setting controls to which road users must conform.

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