scholarly journals Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Six Subalpine Tree Species in South Korea Using a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Sanghyuk Lee ◽  
Huicheul Jung ◽  
Jaeyong Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity and has already caused extensive regional extinction. In particular danger are the plant habitats in subalpine zones, which are more vulnerable to climate change. Evergreen coniferous trees in South Korean subalpine zones are currently designated as a species that need special care given their conservation value, but the reason for their decline and its seriousness remains unclear. This research estimates the potential land suitability (LS) of the subalpine zones in South Korea for six coniferous species vulnerable to climate change in the current time (1970–2000) and two future periods, the 2050s (2041–2060) and the 2070s (2061–2080). We analyze the ensemble-averaged loss of currently suitable habitats in the future, using nine species distribution models (SDMs). Korean arborvitae (Thuja koraiensis) and Khingan fir (Abies nephrolepis) are two species expected to experience significant habitat losses in 2050 (−59.5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to −65.9% under RCP 8.5 and −56.3% under RCP 4.5 to −57.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively). High extinction risks are estimated for these species, due to the difficulty of finding other suitable habitats with high LS. The current habitat of Korean fir (Abies koreana), listed as a threatened species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, is expected to decrease by −23.9% (RCP 4.5) to −28.4% (RCP 8.5) and −36.5% (RCP 4.5) to −36.7% (RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Still, its suitable habitats are also estimated to expand geographically toward the northern part of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. In the context of forest management and adaptation planning, the multi-model ensemble approach to mapping future shifts in the range of subalpine tree species under climate change provides robust information about the potential distribution of threatened and endanger

scholarly journals Does Future Climate Bring Greater Streamflow Simulated by the HSPF Model to South Korea?

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1884
Author(s):  
Jihoon Park ◽  
Euntae Jung ◽  
Imgook Jung ◽  
Jaepil Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
The Impact

Evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources is necessary for improving water resource management and adaptation measures at the watershed level. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on streamflow in South Korea using downscaled climate change information based on the global climate model (GCM) and hydrological simulation program–FORTRAN model. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 were employed in this study. During the distant future (2071–2099), the flow increased by 15.11% and 24.40% for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2, respectively. The flow is highly dependent on precipitation and evapotranspiration. Both precipitation and evapotranspiration increased, but the relative change of precipitation was greater than the relative change of evapotranspiration. For this reason, the flow would show a significant increase. Additionally, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the variability of the flow according to the GCM also increased because the variability of precipitation increased. Moreover, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the summer and autumn flow increased significantly, and the winter flow decreased in both scenarios. The variability in autumn and winter was so great that the occurrence of extreme flow could intensify further. These projections indicated the possibility of future flooding and drought in summer and winter. Regionally, the flow was expected to show a significant increase in the southeastern region. The findings presented for South Korea could be used as primary data in establishing national climate change adaptation measures.

scholarly journals Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2185
Author(s):  
Hyun Woo Kim ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari ◽  
Min Ho Chang ◽  
Changwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Habitat Characteristics ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Group 3 ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Iverson ◽  
Matthew Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad ◽  
Stephen Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

scholarly journals Elevational distribution ranges of vascular plant species in the Baekdudaegan mountain range, South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sookyung Shin ◽  
Jung-Hyun Kim ◽  
Ji-Hee Dang ◽  
In-Soon Seo ◽  
Byoung Yoon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
National Parks ◽  
Vascular Plants ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Subalpine Zone ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Elevational Distribution

AbstractThe climate is changing rapidly, and this may pose a major threat to global biodiversity. One of the most distinctive consequences of climate change is the poleward and/or upward shift of species distribution ranges associated with increasing temperatures, resulting in a change of species composition and community structure in the forest ecosystems. The Baekdudaegan mountain range connects most forests from the lowland to the subalpine zone in South Korea and is therefore recognized as one of the most important biodiversity hotspots. This study was conducted to understand the distribution range of vascular plants along elevational gradients through field surveys in the six national parks of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. We identified the upper and lower distribution limits of a total of 873 taxa of vascular plants with 117 families, 418 genera, 793 species, 14 subspecies, 62 varieties, two forms, and two hybrids. A total of 12 conifers were recorded along the elevational gradient. The distribution ranges of Abies koreana, Picea jezoensis, Pinus pumila, and Thuja koraiensis were limited to over 1000 m above sea level. We also identified 21 broad-leaved trees in the subalpine zone. A total of 45 Korean endemic plant species were observed, and of these, 15 taxa (including Aconitum chiisanense and Hanabusaya asiatica) showed a narrow distribution range in the subalpine zone. Our study provides valuable information on the current elevational distribution ranges of vascular plants in the six national parks of South Korea, which could serve as a baseline for vertical shifts under future climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1604
Author(s):  
Sun Hee Hong ◽  
Yong Ho Lee ◽  
Gaeun Lee ◽  
Do-Hun Lee ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Invasive Weeds ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Control And Management

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRh&amp;#246;n aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rh&amp;#246;n in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km&amp;#178; and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5&amp;#176;x0.5&amp;#176; (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; on evapotranspiration and thus runoff. &amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals How can effect the synergy of climate change, soil units and vegetation groups the potential global distribution of plants up to 2300: a modelling study for prediction of potential global distribution and migration of the N<sub>2</sub> fixing species <i>Alnus</i> spp.

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 815-864
Author(s):  
A. Sakalli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nitrogen Fixation ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Soil Units ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Plant migration is a well known adaptation strategy of plant groups or species with evidence from historical to present observation and monitoring studies. Importance of N2-fixing plants has increased in last decades. Alnus (alder) is an important plant group because of its nitrogen fixation ability. Alders are generally distributed in humid locations of boreal, temperate and tropical climate zones, where the nitrogen fixation is an important nitrogen source for other plants. To model the nitrogen fixation by alder, data about the global distribution of alder is absolutely required. In this study a new method and model are presented to predict the distribution of N2-fixing genus on global scale and its migration in the future by using climate change scenarios. Three linear functions were defined for the determination of climate niche of alders. The distribution and migration model (Alnus-Distribution-Model (ADM)) was improved with the aid of the soil units from FAO-Unesco Soil Database, and vegetation types from Schmithüsen's biogeographical atlas. The model was also developed to predict the impact of climate change on alder distribution by using climate data from experiments performed by the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) including the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) mitigation scenarios, and extensions of the scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. The model covered basic approaches to understand the combine effect of climate, soil and vegetation on plant distribution and migration in the current time and future.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change and emissions on atmospheric oxidized nitrogen deposition over East Asia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxi Zhang ◽  
Yang Gao ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Kun Luo ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East China Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
East China ◽  
Anthropogenic Emission ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A multi-model ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations are used to study the atmospheric oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition over East Asia under climate and emission changes projected for the future. Both dry and wet NOy deposition shows significant decreases in the 2100s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, primarily due to large anthropogenic emission reduction over both land and sea. However, in the near future of the 2030s, both dry and wet NOy deposition increases significantly due to continued increase in emissions. The individual effect of climate or emission changes on dry and wet NOy deposition is also investigated. The impact of climate change on dry NOy deposition is relatively minor, but the effect on wet deposition, primarily caused by changes in precipitation, is much higher. For example, over the East China Sea, wet NOy deposition increases significantly in summer due to climate change by the end of this century under RCP 8.5, which may subsequently enhance marine primary production. Over the coastal seas of China, as the transport of NOy from land becomes weaker due to the decrease of anthropogenic emissions, the effect of ship emission and lightning emission becomes more important. On average, seasonal mean total NOy deposition is projected to be enhanced by 24–48 % and 3 %–37 % over Yellow Sea and East China Sea, respectively, by the end of this century. Therefore, continued control of both anthropogenic emission over land and ship emissions may reduce NOy deposition to the Chinese coastal seas.

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