Direct Versus Indirect Tree Ring Reconstruction of Annual Discharge of Chemora River, Algeria

Annual river discharge is a critical variable for water resources planning and management. Tree rings are widely used to reconstruct annual discharge, but errors can be large when tree growth fails to respond commensurately to hydrologically important seasonal components of climate. This paper contrasts direct and indirect reconstruction as statistical approaches to discharge reconstruction for the Chemora River, in semi-arid northeastern Algeria, and explores indirect reconstruction as a diagnostic tool in reconstruction error analysis. We define direct reconstruction as predictions from regression of annual discharge on tree ring data, and indirect reconstruction as predictions from a four-stage process: (1) regression of precipitation on tree rings, (2) application of the regression model to get reconstructed precipitation for grid cells over the basin, (3) routing of reconstructed precipitation through a climatological water balance (WB) model, and (4) summing model runoff over cells to get the reconstructed discharge at a gage location. For comparative purposes, the potential predictors in both modeling approaches are the same principal components of tree ring width chronologies from a network of drought-sensitive sites of Pinus halepensis and Cedrus atlantica in northern Algeria. Results suggest that both modeling approaches can yield statistically significant reconstructions for the Chemora River. Greater accuracy and simplicity of the direct method are countered by conceptual physical advantages of the indirect method. The WB modeling inherent to the indirect method is useful as a diagnostic tool in error analysis of discharge reconstruction, points out the low and declining importance of snowmelt to the river discharge, and gives clues to the cause of severe underestimation of discharge in the outlier high-discharge year 1996. Results show that indirect reconstruction would benefit most in this basin from tree ring resolution of seasonal precipitation.

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Sampling density and date influence spatial representation of tree ring reconstructions

10.5194/cp-2020-31 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Justin T. Maxwell ◽

Grant L. Harley ◽

Trevis J. Matheus ◽

Brandon M. Strange ◽

Kayla Van Aken ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Large Scale ◽

The United States ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Ring Network ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

The Us

Abstract. Our understanding of the natural variability of hydroclimate before the instrumental period (ca. 1900 in the United States; US) is largely dependent on tree-ring-based reconstructions. Large-scale soil moisture reconstructions from a network of tree-ring chronologies have greatly improved our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate conditions, particularly extremes of both drought and pluvial (wet) events. However, certain regions within these large-scale reconstructions in the US have a sparse network of tree-ring chronologies. Further, several chronologies were collected in the 1980s and 1990s, thus our understanding of the sensitivity of radial growth to soil moisture in the US is based on a period that experienced multiple extremely severe droughts and neglects the impacts of recent, rapid global change. In this study, we expanded the tree-ring network of the Ohio River Valley in the US, a region with sparse coverage. We used a total of 72 chronologies across 15 species to examine how increasing the density of the tree-ring network influences the representation of reconstructing the Palmer Meteorological Drought Index (PMDI). Further, we tested how the sampling date influenced the reconstruction models by creating reconstructions that ended in the year 1980 and compared them to reconstructions ending in 2010 from the same chronologies. We found that increasing the density of the tree-ring network resulted in reconstructed values that better matched the spatial variability of instrumentally recorded droughts and to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling tree in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to PMDI decreased in the southern portion of our region where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades. We emphasize the need of building a high-density tree-ring network to better represent the spatial variability of past droughts and pluvials. Further, chronologies on the International Tree-Ring Data Bank need updating regularly to better understand how the sensitivity of tree rings to climate may vary through time.

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Dendroclimatology and Dendroecology

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/0033-5894(71)90057-3 ◽

1971 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 419-449 ◽

Cited By ~ 101

Author(s):

Harold C. Fritts

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Physiological Activity ◽

Ring Width ◽

Growing Season ◽

Dry Matter Accumulation ◽

New Developments ◽

Cambial Age ◽

Tree Ring Data

Dendrochronology is the science of dating annual growth layers (rings) in woody plants. Two related subdisciplines are dendroclimatology and dendroecology. The former uses the information in dated rings to study problems of present and past climates, while the latter deals with changes in the local environment rather than regional climate.Successful applications of dendroclimatology and dendroecology depend upon careful stratification. Ring-width samples are selected from trees on limiting sites, where widths of growth layers vary greatly from one year to the next (sensitivity) and autocorrelation of the widths is not high. Rings also must be cross-dated and sufficiently replicated to provide precise dating. This selection and dating assures that the climatic information common to all trees, which is analogous to the “signal”, is large and properly placed in time. The random error or nonclimatic variations in growth, among trees, is analogous to “noise” and is reduced when ring-width indices are averaged for many trees.Some basic facts about the growth are presented along with a discussion of important physiological processes operating throughout the roots, stems, and leaves. Certain gradients associated with tree height, cambial age, and physiological activity control the size of the growth layers as they vary throughout the tree. These biological gradients interact with environmental variables and complicate the task of modeling the relationships linking growth with environment.Biological models are described for the relationships between variations in ring widths from conifers on arid sites, and variations in temperature and precpitation. These climatic factors may influence the tree at any time in the year. Conditions preceding the growing season sometimes have a greater influence on ring width than conditions during the growing season, and the relative effects of these factors on growth vary with latitude, altitude, and differences in factors of the site. The effects of some climatic factors on growth are negligible during certain times of the year, but important at other times. Climatic factors are sometimes directly related to growth and at other times are inversely related to growth. Statistical methods are described for ascertaining these differences in the climatic response of trees from different sites.A practical example is given of a tree-ring study and the mechanics are described for stratification and selection of tree-ring materials, for laboratory preparation, for cross-dating, and for computer processing. Several methods for calibration of the ring-width data with climatic variation are described. The most recent is multivariate analysis, which allows simultaneous calibration of a variety of tree-ring data representing different sites with a number of variables of climate.Several examples of applications of tree-ring analysis to problems of environment and climate are described. One is a specification from tree rings of anomalies in atmosphere circulation for a portion of the Northern Hemisphere since 1700 A.D. Another example treats and specifies past conditions in terms of conditional probabilities. Other methods of comparing present climate with past climate are described along with new developments in reconstructing past hydrologic conditions from tree rings.Tree-ring studies will be applied in the future to problems of temperate and mesic environments, and to problems of physiological, genetic, and anatomical variations within and among trees. New developments in the use of X-ray techniques will facilitate the measurement and study of cell size and cell density. Tree rings are an important source of information on productivity and dry-matter accumulation at various sites. Some tree-ring studies will deal with environmental pollution. Statistical developments will improve estimation of certain past anomalies in weather factors and the reconstructtion of atmosphere circulation associated with climate variability and change. Such information should improve chances for measuring and assessing the possibility of inadvertent modification of climate by man.

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Use of tree ring reconstructed streamflows to assess drought

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering ◽

10.1139/l05-069 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 32 (6) ◽

pp. 1114-1123 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

David V Bonin ◽

Donald H Burn

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Investment Decision ◽

Flow Conditions ◽

Growth Rings ◽

Athabasca River ◽

Climatic Variations ◽

Investment Decision Making ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Extreme Flow

The reconstruction of past streamflow events is of great interest to the water resources engineer to obtain the best possible estimates of extreme flow conditions for investment, decision making, and design. The tree ring data offer a unique way of addressing this problem. The pattern of growth rings of a tree reflects the environmental conditions experienced during each year. Tree rings are produced annually and can be precisely and reliably linked to climatic variations, which makes them ideal for correlation with annual climatic records. This paper demonstrates the utility of using the methods of dendroclimatology, the study of climate through tree rings, to extend streamflow records. The techniques developed were applied to the Athabasca River at Athabasca. The results reveal considerable benefits from the reconstruction through more precise, and more extreme, estimates of drought quantiles.Key words: drought, tree ring data, reconstruction, extreme flow quantiles, frequency analysis.

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Tree ring growth and stable isotopes as potential indicators of historical seabird activities on forested islands in coastal British Columbia

The Canadian Field-Naturalist ◽

10.22621/cfn.v127i2.1445 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 127 (2) ◽

pp. 146 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

T. E. Reimchen ◽

S. McGehee ◽

B. W. Glickman

Keyword(s):

British Columbia ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Growth Period ◽

Nitrogen Isotope ◽

Picea Sitchensis ◽

Isotopic Signatures ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Year 2000 ◽

Seabird Guano

We examined yearly rings from increment cores of conifers on two seabird nesting islands (one in the Lucy Islands and one in the Rankine Islands, British Columbia), to determine whether trees contained signatures of historical activity of seabirds. Ten conifers (primarily Sitka Spruce, Picea sitchensis), ranging from 56 cm to 127 cm diameter (average 90 cm) and ranging from 70 to 232 years in age (average 132 years of age), were cored across a 200-m gradient in densities of seabird burrows. At the site in the lucy Islands, annual growth was highest (8–14 mm) in the trees with the highest seabird burrow densities and highest in the earliest rings (~1930), which were followed by a fluctuating reduction down to ~2 mm/year in the year 2000, but with a secondary elevated growth period in the 1970s. Adjacent control trees without seabird burrows had a growth rate of ~2 mm/year throughout the same period. At the site in the Rankine Islands, growth rates were also variable and exhibited a 10–15 year non-synchronous periodicity, with the highest growths in the location with high seabird burrow density. Nitrogen isotope signatures (δ15N), which are greatly elevated in seabird guano, ranged from minus 3.9% to 17.4% among tree rings (n = 245 rings) and were positively correlated to percentage nitrogen in rings, average ring growth, and burrow densities. Using these methods, we infer from our tree ring data that seabird activity declined on the lucy Islands over a 70-year period and that the combination of growth, nitrogen isotopic signatures, and percentage nitrogen in tree rings as well a more detailed sampling grid of target and adjacent control trees will provide seabird biologists with additional tools for evaluating spatial and historical trends in seabird activity on forested islands.

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Streamflow variability over 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and on geopotential height field reanalysis

10.5194/cp-2016-5 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. Brigode ◽

F. Brissette ◽

A. Nicault ◽

L. Perreault ◽

A. Kuentz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Geopotential Height ◽

Climatic Reconstruction ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Streamflow Variability ◽

Climatic Time Series

Abstract. Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Quebec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir to compare the obtained streamflow series and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period. This new reconstruction is based, not on natural proxies, but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall-runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, both in terms of monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows, and the other one on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability of the reconstructed flows were similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with significant changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the interannual variabilities reconstructed were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but significantly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions, and finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

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Floating Larch Tree-Ring Chronologies from Archaeological Timbers in the Russian Altai Between about 800 BC and AD 800

Radiocarbon ◽

10.1017/s0033822200042582 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 49 (2) ◽

pp. 693-702 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Irina Panyushkina ◽

Igor Sljusarenko ◽

Nikolay Bikov ◽

Eugene Bogdanov

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Iron Age ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Ring Width ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Southeastern Part ◽

Archaeological Wood ◽

Pazyryk Culture ◽

Tree Ring Data

We obtained over 200 archaeological wood specimens from the southeastern part of the Altai Mountains (Russia) to establish accurate calendar dates of the timbers using both radiocarbon and tree-ring analyses. Most timbers came from small and elite tombs of the Pazyryk culture (Siberian Scythians of the Iron Age period). Timbers from Hun-Sarmatian and Turk times (1st millennium AD) were studied for the first time. Three floating tree-ring width chronologies of larch (Larix sibirica) with lengths of 486 yr to 144 yr were developed from the tree-ring data. Tree rings of the composite 486-yr chronology of the Pazyryk culture represent the regional scale of Altai tree-ring width variability between about 720–240 BC. The composite chronology dates the earliest construction of Pazyryk culture tombs to ∼320 BC (ordinary tombs) and the latest ones at 240 BC (Pazyryk noble tomb #5). The composite chronology might be used for tree-ring dating wood from Scythian tombs in the region. It will also help confirm the precision of 14C dating of the Scythian tombs around the Hallstatt plateau of 14C calibration curves. We developed a 110-yr decadal 14C sequence from the Kurayka site that dates Kok-Pash culture timbers back to cal AD 240 (Hun-Sarmatian period). 14C dates of wooden poles from 3 sites of Turk stone enclosures suggested wood cutting dates between cal AD 470 and 830. The results demonstrate that crossdating tree rings along with 14C dating of crossdated rings provide the most reliable and highest precision dates for these archaeological sites.

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Cross-continental hydroclimate proxies: Tree-rings in Central Chile reconstruct historical streamflow in Southeastern South American rivers

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/03091333211067466 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 030913332110674

Author(s):

Christine Lucas ◽

Isabella Aguilera-Betti ◽

Ariel A Muñoz ◽

Paulina Puchi ◽

Gonzalo Sapriza ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Annual Streamflow ◽

Central Chile ◽

Negro River ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Hydroclimate Variability

Regional teleconnections permit cross-continental modeling of hydroclimate throughout the world. Tree-rings are a good hydroclimatic proxy used to reconstruct drought and streamflow in regions that respond to common global forcings. We used a multi-species dataset of 32 tree-ring width chronologies from Chile and Uruguay as a climate proxy to infer annual streamflow (Q) variability in the Negro River basin, a grassland-dominated watershed of lowland Southeastern South America. A positive linear correlation between tree-ring chronologies from Central Chile and annual Negro River instrumental streamflow from 1957 to 2012 indicated a cross-continental teleconnection between hydroclimate variability in Central Chile and Northeastern Uruguay. This relationship was mediated in part by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereby the El Nino 3.4 Index was positively correlated with regional rainfall, annual tree growth, and Q anomalies. Despite the proximity of Uruguayan tree-ring chronologies to Negro River hydrometric stations, the Chilean tree-ring chronologies best predicted annual streamflow. Thus, using tree-ring data from four long-term moisture-sensitive chronologies of the species Cryptocarya alba in Central Chile (32–34°S), we present the first streamflow reconstruction (1890–2009) in the lower La Plata Basin. The reconstruction supports regional evidence for increasing frequency of extreme flood years over the past century in Uruguay. We demonstrate how climate teleconnections that mediate local hydroclimate variability permit the cross-continental reconstruction of streamflow, filling a major geographical gap in historical proxies for flooding and drought in grassland biomes of the southern hemisphere.

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Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 1785-1804 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Pierre Brigode ◽

François Brissette ◽

Antoine Nicault ◽

Luc Perreault ◽

Anna Kuentz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Geopotential Height ◽

Climatic Reconstruction ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Streamflow Variability ◽

Climatic Time Series

Abstract. Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

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A review of flood records from tree rings

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133315608758 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 39 (6) ◽

pp. 794-816 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

J. A. Ballesteros-Cánovas ◽

M. Stoffel ◽

S. St George ◽

K. Hirschboeck

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Progress Report ◽

Woody Vegetation ◽

Future Perspectives ◽

Widespread Distribution ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Recent Developments ◽

Hazard Assessments ◽

The 1960S

Palaeohydrology is now recognized as a valuable approach to characterize the hazards posed by flooding. Tree rings have emerged as an important source of evidence for paleohydrological studies, and, since the 1960s, have been used to document the occurrence of past floods. In this progress report we outline the major contributions of tree-ring records to flood research. By reviewing the key advances in this field, documenting different research trajectories, and highlighting recent developments, we make an argument in favor of more extensive use of tree rings in flood analyses. We show how tree-ring data have been applied to risk assessment and outline how the widespread distribution of flood-affected trees can be used to improve the understanding of flood processes. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessments, and end with new thematic perspectives.

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Tree-Ring Analysis of Intermediate Hawthorn (Crataegus media Bechst.) in NW Poland

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12010029 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 29

Author(s):

Anna Cedro ◽

Bernard Cedro

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Rings ◽

Agricultural Landscape ◽

Positive Influence ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Incremental Growth ◽

High Precipitation ◽

Ring Analysis ◽

Uncultivated Land ◽

Nw Poland

Intermediate hawthorn (Crataegus × media Bechst.) is broadly distributed in Europe but very rarely examined by dendrochronologists. In NW Poland, it is one of three naturally occurring hawthorn species, growing mainly at forest margins, along roads, in mid-field woodlots, and on uncultivated land. Biocenotically, it is a very valuable species. This study aimed to determine the age of trees, tree-ring dynamics, and growth–climate relationship for intermediate hawthorn. Signature years were also determined. Samples for analysis were collected from 22 trees growing in a typical agricultural landscape in a monospecific mid-field woodlot comprised of several hundred specimens of various ages and forms (shrubs and trees). Using classic methods of dendrochronological dating, a 40-year long chronology spanning 1981–2020 was constructed. The radial growth rate of intermediate hawthorn is comparable to other tree species forming stands in NW Poland and equals 2.41 mm/year. Considerable intersubject variability is noted, from 1.48 to 4.44 mm/year. The chronology was also used for dendroclimatological analyses, including correlation and response function and signature years. Of the meteorological parameters analyzed, annual incremental growth in hawthorn is the most strongly shaped by precipitation totals from May to August of the current vegetation year: high rainfall favors the formation of wide tree-rings. Statistically significant growth–climate relationships were also obtained for winter months (December of the preceding vegetation year, January and February), for which period negative correlation and regression values are noted for air temperature and insolation. Furthermore, high precipitation, low-temperature and low insolation late in the preceding vegetation year (especially in August) make a positive influence on the condition of trees in the upcoming growing season. Signature year analysis clearly pointed to precipitation as the dominant factor in shaping tree-rings in the studied hawthorn population. As there are no dendrochronological papers concerning indigenous hawthorn species, future studies should be expanded to include diverse geographic locations and habitat conditions and should include all three species of hawthorn occurring in Poland.

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