scholarly journals Streamflow variability over 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and on geopotential height field reanalysis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Brigode ◽  
F. Brissette ◽  
A. Nicault ◽  
L. Perreault ◽  
A. Kuentz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Climatic Reconstruction ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Streamflow Variability ◽  
Climatic Time Series

Abstract. Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Quebec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir to compare the obtained streamflow series and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period. This new reconstruction is based, not on natural proxies, but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall-runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, both in terms of monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows, and the other one on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability of the reconstructed flows were similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with significant changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the interannual variabilities reconstructed were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but significantly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions, and finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

scholarly journals Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1785-1804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Brigode ◽  
François Brissette ◽  
Antoine Nicault ◽  
Luc Perreault ◽  
Anna Kuentz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Climatic Reconstruction ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Streamflow Variability ◽  
Climatic Time Series

Abstract. Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

scholarly journals Sampling density and date influence spatial representation of tree ring reconstructions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin T. Maxwell ◽  
Grant L. Harley ◽  
Trevis J. Matheus ◽  
Brandon M. Strange ◽  
Kayla Van Aken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Ring Network ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
The Us

Abstract. Our understanding of the natural variability of hydroclimate before the instrumental period (ca. 1900 in the United States; US) is largely dependent on tree-ring-based reconstructions. Large-scale soil moisture reconstructions from a network of tree-ring chronologies have greatly improved our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate conditions, particularly extremes of both drought and pluvial (wet) events. However, certain regions within these large-scale reconstructions in the US have a sparse network of tree-ring chronologies. Further, several chronologies were collected in the 1980s and 1990s, thus our understanding of the sensitivity of radial growth to soil moisture in the US is based on a period that experienced multiple extremely severe droughts and neglects the impacts of recent, rapid global change. In this study, we expanded the tree-ring network of the Ohio River Valley in the US, a region with sparse coverage. We used a total of 72 chronologies across 15 species to examine how increasing the density of the tree-ring network influences the representation of reconstructing the Palmer Meteorological Drought Index (PMDI). Further, we tested how the sampling date influenced the reconstruction models by creating reconstructions that ended in the year 1980 and compared them to reconstructions ending in 2010 from the same chronologies. We found that increasing the density of the tree-ring network resulted in reconstructed values that better matched the spatial variability of instrumentally recorded droughts and to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling tree in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to PMDI decreased in the southern portion of our region where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades. We emphasize the need of building a high-density tree-ring network to better represent the spatial variability of past droughts and pluvials. Further, chronologies on the International Tree-Ring Data Bank need updating regularly to better understand how the sensitivity of tree rings to climate may vary through time.

scholarly journals Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction of 400 years of past flows at a weekly time step for major rivers of Western Canada

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Slaughter ◽  
Saman Razavi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Tree Ring Data

Abstract. The assumption of stationarity in water resources no longer holds, particularly within the context of future climate change. Plausible scenarios of flows that fluctuate outside the envelope of variability of the gauging data are required to assess the robustness of water resources systems to future conditions. This study presents a novel method of generating weekly-time-step flows based on tree-ring chronology data. Specifically, this method addresses two long-standing challenges with paleo-reconstruction: (1) the typically limited predictive power of tree-ring data at the annual and sub-annual scale, and (2) the inflated short-term persistence in tree-ring time series and improper use of prewhitening. Unlike the conventional approach, this method establishes relationships between tree-ring chronologies and naturalised flow at a biennial scale to preserve persistence properties and variability of hydrological time series. Biennial flow reconstructions are further disaggregated to weekly, according to the weekly flow distribution of reference two-year instrumental periods, identified as periods with broadly similar tree-ring properties to that of every two-year paleo-period. The Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB), a major river in Western Canada, is selected as a study area, and weekly flows in its four major tributaries are extended back to the year 1600. The study shows that the reconstructed flows properly preserve the statistical properties of the reference flows, particularly, short- to long-term persistence and the structure of variability across time scales. An ensemble approach is presented to represent the uncertainty inherent in the statistical relationships and disaggregation method. The ensemble of reconstructed weekly flows are publically available for download from https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0139 (Slaughter and Razavi, 2019).

scholarly journals Direct Versus Indirect Tree Ring Reconstruction of Annual Discharge of Chemora River, Algeria

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 986
Author(s):  
David M. Meko ◽  
Ramzi Touchan ◽  
Dalila Kherchouche ◽  
Said Slimani
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Diagnostic Tool ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Indirect Method ◽  
Modeling Approaches ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Annual Discharge ◽  
Reconstructed Precipitation

Annual river discharge is a critical variable for water resources planning and management. Tree rings are widely used to reconstruct annual discharge, but errors can be large when tree growth fails to respond commensurately to hydrologically important seasonal components of climate. This paper contrasts direct and indirect reconstruction as statistical approaches to discharge reconstruction for the Chemora River, in semi-arid northeastern Algeria, and explores indirect reconstruction as a diagnostic tool in reconstruction error analysis. We define direct reconstruction as predictions from regression of annual discharge on tree ring data, and indirect reconstruction as predictions from a four-stage process: (1) regression of precipitation on tree rings, (2) application of the regression model to get reconstructed precipitation for grid cells over the basin, (3) routing of reconstructed precipitation through a climatological water balance (WB) model, and (4) summing model runoff over cells to get the reconstructed discharge at a gage location. For comparative purposes, the potential predictors in both modeling approaches are the same principal components of tree ring width chronologies from a network of drought-sensitive sites of Pinus halepensis and Cedrus atlantica in northern Algeria. Results suggest that both modeling approaches can yield statistically significant reconstructions for the Chemora River. Greater accuracy and simplicity of the direct method are countered by conceptual physical advantages of the indirect method. The WB modeling inherent to the indirect method is useful as a diagnostic tool in error analysis of discharge reconstruction, points out the low and declining importance of snowmelt to the river discharge, and gives clues to the cause of severe underestimation of discharge in the outlier high-discharge year 1996. Results show that indirect reconstruction would benefit most in this basin from tree ring resolution of seasonal precipitation.

scholarly journals REFINEMENT OF CONIFER GROWTH MODELS BASED ON TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES OF THE NORTH OF WESTERN SIBERIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
V. R. Tsibulsky ◽  
I. G. Solovyev ◽  
D. A. Govorkov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Growth Function ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Model Update ◽  
Pine Trees

The subject of this research is conifer growth model based on time-series of annual rings width. The article addresses processing of data and model update in respect of forest dendrology. The purpose of study is to update the conifer growth model due to expansion of time-series of tree-rings width in regards to conifer forests in Western Siberia. The method represents expansion of time-series due to the fact that some growth phases had not been taken into account. When measurements were taken at the height of 1.3 meters, the following phases were not considered: seedling, juvenile, immature and beginning of virginile phase. The authors carried out examination of a number of scans and core samples, as well as time-series received by other scientists and which are contained in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank. Based on the results of field studies, the authors recommend to add some zeroes to the beginning of time-series within the range of 10-15 years for pine-trees in the south of Western Siberia, depending on growth conditions; the range of 15-30 years in the north for larch-trees and pine-trees depending on soil and climate conditions and latitude. The sequence of data pre-processing operations for time-series, received by means of core sampling, is as follows: averaging out of radius gain in 2 (3) mutually perpendicular directions for one specimen, graphing of radius gain curve, adding to the beginning of time-series, its normalization, approximation by specified growth function. It is possible to build area growth function for the scans. For averaging out a group of model trees, the sequence of operations is as follows: synchronization of time-series by cross-correlation method, approximation by specified growth function. Methods and results of studies can be applied in forest sectors and oil and gas industries for monitoring of forest health conditions. The proposed method of curve growth model update will allow to define more precisely time intervals for efficient forest exploitation as well as to reconstruct digital models of conifer populations in the north of Western Siberia.

Dendroclimatology and Dendroecology

1971 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold C. Fritts
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Physiological Activity ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Dry Matter Accumulation ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Cambial Age ◽  
Tree Ring Data

Dendrochronology is the science of dating annual growth layers (rings) in woody plants. Two related subdisciplines are dendroclimatology and dendroecology. The former uses the information in dated rings to study problems of present and past climates, while the latter deals with changes in the local environment rather than regional climate.Successful applications of dendroclimatology and dendroecology depend upon careful stratification. Ring-width samples are selected from trees on limiting sites, where widths of growth layers vary greatly from one year to the next (sensitivity) and autocorrelation of the widths is not high. Rings also must be cross-dated and sufficiently replicated to provide precise dating. This selection and dating assures that the climatic information common to all trees, which is analogous to the “signal”, is large and properly placed in time. The random error or nonclimatic variations in growth, among trees, is analogous to “noise” and is reduced when ring-width indices are averaged for many trees.Some basic facts about the growth are presented along with a discussion of important physiological processes operating throughout the roots, stems, and leaves. Certain gradients associated with tree height, cambial age, and physiological activity control the size of the growth layers as they vary throughout the tree. These biological gradients interact with environmental variables and complicate the task of modeling the relationships linking growth with environment.Biological models are described for the relationships between variations in ring widths from conifers on arid sites, and variations in temperature and precpitation. These climatic factors may influence the tree at any time in the year. Conditions preceding the growing season sometimes have a greater influence on ring width than conditions during the growing season, and the relative effects of these factors on growth vary with latitude, altitude, and differences in factors of the site. The effects of some climatic factors on growth are negligible during certain times of the year, but important at other times. Climatic factors are sometimes directly related to growth and at other times are inversely related to growth. Statistical methods are described for ascertaining these differences in the climatic response of trees from different sites.A practical example is given of a tree-ring study and the mechanics are described for stratification and selection of tree-ring materials, for laboratory preparation, for cross-dating, and for computer processing. Several methods for calibration of the ring-width data with climatic variation are described. The most recent is multivariate analysis, which allows simultaneous calibration of a variety of tree-ring data representing different sites with a number of variables of climate.Several examples of applications of tree-ring analysis to problems of environment and climate are described. One is a specification from tree rings of anomalies in atmosphere circulation for a portion of the Northern Hemisphere since 1700 A.D. Another example treats and specifies past conditions in terms of conditional probabilities. Other methods of comparing present climate with past climate are described along with new developments in reconstructing past hydrologic conditions from tree rings.Tree-ring studies will be applied in the future to problems of temperate and mesic environments, and to problems of physiological, genetic, and anatomical variations within and among trees. New developments in the use of X-ray techniques will facilitate the measurement and study of cell size and cell density. Tree rings are an important source of information on productivity and dry-matter accumulation at various sites. Some tree-ring studies will deal with environmental pollution. Statistical developments will improve estimation of certain past anomalies in weather factors and the reconstructtion of atmosphere circulation associated with climate variability and change. Such information should improve chances for measuring and assessing the possibility of inadvertent modification of climate by man.

Use of tree ring reconstructed streamflows to assess drought

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1114-1123 ◽  
Author(s):  
David V Bonin ◽  
Donald H Burn
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Growth Rings ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Extreme Flow

The reconstruction of past streamflow events is of great interest to the water resources engineer to obtain the best possible estimates of extreme flow conditions for investment, decision making, and design. The tree ring data offer a unique way of addressing this problem. The pattern of growth rings of a tree reflects the environmental conditions experienced during each year. Tree rings are produced annually and can be precisely and reliably linked to climatic variations, which makes them ideal for correlation with annual climatic records. This paper demonstrates the utility of using the methods of dendroclimatology, the study of climate through tree rings, to extend streamflow records. The techniques developed were applied to the Athabasca River at Athabasca. The results reveal considerable benefits from the reconstruction through more precise, and more extreme, estimates of drought quantiles.Key words: drought, tree ring data, reconstruction, extreme flow quantiles, frequency analysis.

scholarly journals Tree ring growth and stable isotopes as potential indicators of historical seabird activities on forested islands in coastal British Columbia

2013 ◽  
Vol 127 (2) ◽  
pp. 146 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. E. Reimchen ◽  
S. McGehee ◽  
B. W. Glickman
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Nitrogen Isotope ◽  
Picea Sitchensis ◽  
Isotopic Signatures ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Seabird Guano

We examined yearly rings from increment cores of conifers on two seabird nesting islands (one in the Lucy Islands and one in the Rankine Islands, British Columbia), to determine whether trees contained signatures of historical activity of seabirds. Ten conifers (primarily Sitka Spruce, Picea sitchensis), ranging from 56 cm to 127 cm diameter (average 90 cm) and ranging from 70 to 232 years in age (average 132 years of age), were cored across a 200-m gradient in densities of seabird burrows. At the site in the lucy Islands, annual growth was highest (8–14 mm) in the trees with the highest seabird burrow densities and highest in the earliest rings (~1930), which were followed by a fluctuating reduction down to ~2 mm/year in the year 2000, but with a secondary elevated growth period in the 1970s. Adjacent control trees without seabird burrows had a growth rate of ~2 mm/year throughout the same period. At the site in the Rankine Islands, growth rates were also variable and exhibited a 10–15 year non-synchronous periodicity, with the highest growths in the location with high seabird burrow density. Nitrogen isotope signatures (δ15N), which are greatly elevated in seabird guano, ranged from minus 3.9% to 17.4% among tree rings (n = 245 rings) and were positively correlated to percentage nitrogen in rings, average ring growth, and burrow densities. Using these methods, we infer from our tree ring data that seabird activity declined on the lucy Islands over a 70-year period and that the combination of growth, nitrogen isotopic signatures, and percentage nitrogen in tree rings as well a more detailed sampling grid of target and adjacent control trees will provide seabird biologists with additional tools for evaluating spatial and historical trends in seabird activity on forested islands.

scholarly journals Wavelet analysis of the singular spectral reconstructed time series to study the imprints of Solar–ENSO–Geomagnetic activity on Indian climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1447-1479
Author(s):  
S. Sri Lakshmi ◽  
R. K. Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series

Abstract. In order to study the imprints of solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on the Indian Subcontinent, we have applied the Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis to the tree ring temperature variability record from the western Himalayas. The data used in the present study are the Solar Sunspot Number (SSN), Geomagnetic Indices (aa Index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tree ring temperature record from western Himalayas (WH), for the period of 1876–2000. The SSA and wavelet spectra reveal the presence of 5 years short term ENSO variations to 11 year solar cycle indicating the influence of both the solar–geomagnetic and ENSO imprints in the tree ring data. The presence of 33-year cycle periodicity suggests the Sun-temperature variability probably involving the induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Our wavelet analysis for the SSA reconstructed time series agrees with our previous results and also enhance the amplitude of the signals by removing the noise and showing a strong influence of solar–geomagnetic and ENSO patterns throughout the record. The solar flares are considered to be responsible for cause in the circulation patterns in the atmosphere. The net effect of solar–geomagnetic processes on temperature record thus appears to be the result of counteracting influences on shorter (about 5–6 years) and longer (about 11–12 years) time scales. The present analysis thus suggests that the influence of solar processes on Indian temperature variability operates in part indirectly through ENSO, but on more than one time scale. The analyses hence provides credible evidence for teleconnections of tropical pacific climatic variability with Indian climate ranging from interannual-decadal time scales and also demonstrate the possible role of exogenic triggering in reorganizing the global earth–ocean–atmospheric systems.

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