scholarly journals Analyzing and Forecasting Tourism Demand in Vietnam with Artificial Neural Networks

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-50
Author(s):  
Le Quyen Nguyen ◽  
Paula Odete Fernandes ◽  
João Paulo Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Early Summer ◽  
Correct Selection ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Vietnam has experienced a tourism expansion over the last decade, proving itself as one of the top tourist destinations in Southeast Asia. The country received more than 18 million international tourists in 2019, compared to only 1.5 million twenty-five years ago. Tourist spending has translated into rising employment and incomes for Vietnam’s tourism sector, making it the key driver to the socio-economic development of the country. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, only 3.8 million international tourists visited Vietnam in 2020, plummeting by 78.7% year-on-year. The latest outbreak in early summer 2021 made the sector continue to hit bottom. Although Vietnam’s tourism has suffered extreme losses, once the contagion is under control worldwide, the number of international tourists to Vietnam is expected to rise again to reach pre-pandemic levels in the next few years. First, the paper aims to provide a summary of Vietnam’s tourism characteristics with a special focus on international tourists. Next, the predictive capability of artificial neural network (ANN) methodology is examined with the datasets of international tourists to Vietnam from 2008 to 2020. Some ANN architectures are experimented with to predict the monthly number of international tourists to the country, including some lockdown periods due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that, with the correct selection of ANN architectures and data from the previous 12 months, the best ANN models can be forecast for next month with a MAPE between 7.9% and 9.2%. As the method proves its forecasting accuracy, it would serve as a valuable tool for Vietnam’s policymakers and firm managers to make better investment and strategic decisions.

Models of Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Demand Forecasting in Nonconsolidated Tourist Destinations

Methodology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás Molinet Berenguer ◽  
José Antonio Molinet Berenguer ◽  
María Elena Betancourt García ◽  
Alfonso Palmer Pol ◽  
Juan José Montaño Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This article focuses on a new proposed artificial neural network (ANN) model for tourism demand forecasting using time-series which, unlike previous models, uses different seasons of arrivals and values of months with similar behavior as input variables and achieves a forecast up to a year in advance. We demonstrate the validity and greater precision of the proposed model in forecasting a nonconsolidated destination with marked seasonality, which has been scarcely dealt with in other research. We achieve a comparatively greater quality of results and a longer period in advance than previously used auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ANN models. Highly accurate results were also obtained in destinations such as Portugal, which also proves its validity for mature destinations.

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)-BASED PREDICTIVE TOOL FOR ESTIMATING LIGHTNING DAMAGE IN COMPOSITES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEVIN NIELSEN ◽  
TYLER LOTT ◽  
SOM DUTTA ◽  
JUHYEONG LEE
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Hidden Layer

In this study, three artificial neural network (ANN) models are developed with back propagation (BP) optimization algorithms to predict various lightning damage modes in carbon/epoxy laminates. The proposed ANN models use three input variables associated with lightning waveform parameters (i.e., the peak current amplitude, rising time, and decaying time) to predict fiber damage, matrix damage, and through-thickness damage in the composites. The data used for training and testing the networks was actual lightning damage data collected from peer-reviewed published literature. Various BP training algorithms and network architecture configurations (i.e., data splitting, the number of neurons in a hidden layer, and the number of hidden layers) have been tested to improve the performance of the neural networks. Among the various BP algorithms considered, the Bayesian regularization back propagation (BRBP) showed the overall best performance in lightning damage prediction. When using the BRBP algorithm, as expected, the greater the fraction of the collected data that is allocated to the training dataset, the better the network is trained. In addition, the optimal ANN architecture was found to have a single hidden layer with 20 neurons. The ANN models proposed in this work may prove useful in preliminary assessments of lightning damage and reduce the number of expensive experimental lightning tests.

scholarly journals Using the artificial neural networks for prediction and validating solar radiation

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahraa E. Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Horizontal Surface ◽  
The Other ◽  
Rate Coefficients ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Statistical Indicators ◽  
Better Than

AbstractThe main objective of this paper is to employ the artificial neural network (ANN) models for validating and predicting global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface of three Egyptian cities. The feedforward backpropagation ANNs are utilized based on two algorithms which are the basic backpropagation (Bp) and the Bp with momentum and learning rate coefficients respectively. The statistical indicators are used to investigate the performance of ANN models. According to these indicators, the results of the second algorithm are better than the other. Also, model (6) in this method has the lowest RMSE values for all cities in this study. The study indicated that the second method is the most suitable for predicting GSR on a horizontal surface of all cities in this work. Moreover, ANN-based model is an efficient method which has higher precision.

Sugarcane Juice Clarification by Hydrogen Peroxide: Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Aparecida de Souza Sartori ◽  
Katia Ribeiro ◽  
Antonio Carlos Silva Costa Teixeira ◽  
Nathalia Torres Correa Magri ◽  
Juliana Lorenz Mandro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrogen Peroxide ◽  
Sugar Industry ◽  
Allergic Diseases ◽  
Sugarcane Juice ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Sucrose Content ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Ph Range

Abstract: Hydrogen peroxide has been studied as an alternative for sulfur in the white sugar industry. Sulfur has been associated to allergic diseases, mainly asthma. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) models are proposed to predict the effects of different variables (peroxidation time, temperature, pH, H2O2 dosage, and initial °Brix) on sugarcane juice color removal and sucrose content. Experimental results and the ANN models revealed that temperature showed the greatest influence on the decrease of juice color; nevertheless, the effect of temperature depended on pH: at pH<;5.0 a decrease in juice absorbance was observed at temperatures close to 38 °C, whereas in the pH range of 5.0–6.3, absorbance decreased only at about 50–62 °C, regardless of the amount of hydrogen peroxide used. On the other hand, the remaining sucrose content after peroxidation was influenced by the initial °Brix and by pH.

scholarly journals Length of Hospital Stay Prediction at the Admission Stage for Cardiology Patients Using Artificial Neural Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Fang (Jennifer) Tsai ◽  
Po-Chia Chen ◽  
Yen-You Chen ◽  
Hao-Yuan Song ◽  
Hsiu-Mei Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Coronary Atherosclerosis ◽  
Inpatient Care ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Christian Hospital

For hospitals’ admission management, the ability to predict length of stay (LOS) as early as in the preadmission stage might be helpful to monitor the quality of inpatient care. This study is to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict LOS for inpatients with one of the three primary diagnoses: coronary atherosclerosis (CAS), heart failure (HF), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a cardiovascular unit in a Christian hospital in Taipei, Taiwan. A total of 2,377 cardiology patients discharged between October 1, 2010, and December 31, 2011, were analyzed. Using ANN or linear regression model was able to predict correctly for 88.07% to 89.95% CAS patients at the predischarge stage and for 88.31% to 91.53% at the preadmission stage. For AMI or HF patients, the accuracy ranged from 64.12% to 66.78% at the predischarge stage and 63.69% to 67.47% at the preadmission stage when a tolerance of 2 days was allowed.

scholarly journals Modeling of hourly river water temperatures using artificial neural networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cindie Hebert ◽  
Daniel Caissie ◽  
Mysore G. Satish ◽  
Nassir El-Jabi
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Water Level Data ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
The Many

Water temperature is an important component for water quality and biotic conditions in rivers. A good knowledge of river thermal regime is critical for the management of aquatic resources and environmental impact studies. The objective of the present study was to develop a water temperature model as a function of air temperatures, water temperatures and water level data using artificial neural network (ANN) techniques for two thermally different streams. This model was applied on an hourly basis. The results showed that ANN models are an effective modeling tool with overall root-mean-square-error of 0.94 and 1.23 °C, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.967 and 0.962 and bias of −0.13 and 0.02 °C, for Catamaran Brook and the Little Southwest Miramichi River, respectively. The ANN model performed best in summer and autumn and showed a poorer performance in spring. Results of the present study showed similar or better results to those of deterministic and stochastic models. The present study shows that the predicted hourly water temperatures can also be used to estimate the mean and maximum daily water temperatures. The many advantages of ANN models are their simplicity, low data requirements, their capability of modeling long-term time series as well as having an overall good performance.

scholarly journals A Modified Kennard-Stone Algorithm for Optimal Division of Data for Developing Artificial Neural Network Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agus Saptoro ◽  
Moses O. Tadé ◽  
Hari Vuthaluru
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Data Representation ◽  
Data Splitting ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Data Division ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract This paper proposes a method, namely MDKS (Kennard-Stone algorithm based on Mahalanobis distance), to divide the data into training and testing subsets for developing artificial neural network (ANN) models. This method is a modified version of the Kennard-Stone (KS) algorithm. With this method, better data splitting, in terms of data representation and enhanced performance of developed ANN models, can be achieved. Compared with standard KS algorithm and another improved KS algorithm (data division based on joint x - y distances (SPXY) method), the proposed method has also shown a better performance. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used as an advantageous alternative to other existing methods of data splitting for developing ANN models. Care should be taken when dealing with large amount of dataset since they may increase the computational load for MDKS due to its variance-covariance matrix calculations.

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