scholarly journals Recent Climatic Mass Balance of the Schiaparelli Glacier at the Monte Sarmiento Massif and Reconstruction of Little Ice Age Climate by Simulating Steady-State Glacier Conditions

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 272
Author(s):  
Stephanie Suzanne Weidemann ◽  
Jorge Arigony-Neto ◽  
Ricardo Jaña ◽  
Guilherme Netto ◽  
Inti Gonzalez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Recent Climate

The Cordillera Darwin Icefield loses mass at a similar rate as the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields, showing contrasting individual glacier responses, particularly between the north-facing and south-facing glaciers, which are subject to changing climate conditions. Detailed investigations of climatic mass balance processes on recent glacier behavior are not available for glaciers of the Cordillera Darwin Icefield and surrounding icefields. We therefore applied the coupled snow and ice energy and mass balance model in Python (COSIPY) to assess recent surface energy and mass balance variability for the Schiaparelli Glacier at the Monte Sarmiento Massif. We further used COSIPY to simulate steady-state glacier conditions during the Little Ice Age using information of moraine systems and glacier areal extent. The model is driven by downscaled 6-hourly atmospheric data and high resolution precipitation fields, obtained by using an analytical orographic precipitation model. Precipitation and air temperature offsets to present-day climate were considered to reconstruct climatic conditions during the Little Ice Age. A glacier-wide mean annual climatic mass balance of −1.8 ± 0.36 m w.e. a − 1 was simulated between between April 2000 and March 2017. An air temperature decrease between −0.9 ° C and −1.7 ° C in combination with a precipitation offset of up to +60% to recent climate conditions is necessary to simulate steady-state conditions for Schiaparelli Glacier in 1870.

scholarly journals A modelling approach to reconstruct Little Ice Age climate from remote-sensing glacier observations in southeastern Tibet

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (71) ◽  
pp. 359-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Huintjes ◽  
David Loibl ◽  
Frank Lehmkuhl ◽  
Christoph Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Southeastern Tibet

AbstractWe use numerical modelling of glacier mass balance combined with recent and past glacier extents to obtain information on Little Ice Age (LIA) climate in southeastern Tibet. We choose two glaciers that have been analysed in a previous study of equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) and LIA glacier advances with remote-sensing approaches. We apply a physically based surface energy- and mass-balance model that is forced by dynamically downscaled global analysis data. The model is applied to two glacier stages mapped from satellite imagery, modern (1999) and LIA. Precipitation scaling factors (PSF) and air temperature offsets (ATO) are applied to reproduce recent ELA and glacier mass balance (MB) during the LIA. A sensitivity analysis is performed by applying seasonally varying gradients of precipitation and air temperature. The calculated glacier-wide MB estimate for the period 2000–12 is negative for both glaciers (–992±366 kgm–2 a–1 and –1053±258 kgm–2 a–1). Relating recent and LIA PSF/ATO sets suggests a LIA climate with ~8–25% increased precipitation and ~1–2.5°C lower mean air temperature than in the period 2000–12. The results only provide an order of magnitude because deviations in other input parameters are not considered.

scholarly journals Relation between recent glacier variations and climate in the Tien Shan mountains, central Asia

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Chaohai ◽  
Han Tianding
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains

Since the Little Ice Age, most glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains have been retreating. Owing to an increase in precipitation in most parts of the mountains during the late 1950s to early 1970s, the percentage of receding glaciers and the speed of retreat have tended to decrease in the 1970s. However, the general trend of continuous glacier retreat remains unchanged, in part because the summer air temperature shows no tendency to decrease.In the Tien Shan mountains, as the degree of climatic continentality increases the mass balance becomes more dependent on summer temperature, and accumulation and ablation tend to be lower. Therefore, the responses of glaciers to climatic fluctuations in more continental areas are not synchronous with those in less continental areas, and the amplitude of the glacier variations becomes smaller.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lander Van Tricht ◽  
Chloë Marie Paice ◽  
Oleg Rybak ◽  
Rysbek Satylkanov ◽  
Victor Popovnin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Specific Mass ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean

The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological monitoring programs were initiated but these were abandoned in the nineties. Recently, they have been re-established on several glaciers. In this study, a reconstruction of the mean specific mass balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor glaciers is obtained using a surface energy mass balance model. The model is driven by temperature and precipitation data acquired by combining multiple datasets from meteorological stations in the vicinity of the glaciers and tree rings in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan between 1750 and 2020. Multi-annual mass balance measurements integrated over elevation bands of 100 m between 2013 and 2020 are used for calibration. A comparison with WGMS data for the second half of the 20th century is performed for Kara-Batkak glacier. The cumulative mass balances are also compared with geodetic mass balances reconstructed for different time periods. Generally, we find a close agreement, indicating a high confidence in the created mass balance series. The last 20 years show a negative mean specific mass balance except for 2008–2009 when a slightly positive mass balance was found. This indicates that the glaciers are currently in imbalance with the present climatic conditions in the area. For the reconstruction back to 1750, this study specifically highlights that it is essential to adapt the glacier geometry since the end of the Little Ice Age in order to not over- or underestimate the mean specific mass balance. The datasets created can be used to get a better insight into how climate change affects glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan and to model the future evolution of these glaciers as well as other glaciers in the region.

scholarly journals Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (224) ◽  
pp. 1155-1168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Johannes Jakob Fürst ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
The Future

AbstractWe use a 3-D higher-order glacier flow model for Vadret da Morteratsch, Engadin, Switzerland, to simulate its strong retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and to project its future disintegration under a warming climate. The flow model, coupled to a 2-D energy-balance model, is initialized with the known maximum glacier extent during the LIA and subsequently forced with mean monthly precipitation and temperature records. To correctly reproduce the observed retreat of the glacier front for the period 1864–2010, additional mass-balance perturbations are required to account for uncertainties in the initial state, the mass-balance model and climate variations not captured by the ambient meteorological records. Changes in glacier volume and area are in good agreement with additional information from historical topographic maps. Under constant 2001–10 climate conditions, a strong retreat and mass loss continue and Vadret da Morteratsch disconnects from its main tributary, Vadret Pers, before 2020. The future glacier evolution is analysed in detail to understand the timing and rate of retreat, and to assess the role of ice dynamics. Assuming a linearly increasing warming of >3°C by 2100, only isolated and largely stagnant ice patches remain at high elevation.

scholarly journals Modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes during the mid-Holocene in the southern mid-latitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1575-1586 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bravo ◽  
M. Rojas ◽  
B. M. Anderson ◽  
A. N. Mackintosh ◽  
E. Sagredo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. Glacier behaviour during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years BP) in the Southern Hemisphere provides observational data to constrain our understanding of the origin and propagation of palaeoclimate signals. In this study we examine the climatic forcing of glacier response in the MH by evaluating modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) and climatic conditions during the MH compared with pre-industrial time (PI, year 1750). We focus on the middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, specifically Patagonia and the South Island of New Zealand. Climate conditions for the MH were obtained from PMIP2 model simulations, which in turn were used to force a simple glacier mass balance model to simulate changes in ELA. In Patagonia, the models simulate colder conditions during the MH in austral summer (−0.2 °C), autumn (−0.5 °C), and winter (−0.4), and warmer temperatures (0.2 °C) during spring. In the Southern Alps the models show colder MH conditions in autumn (−0.7 °C) and winter (−0.4 °C), warmer conditions in spring (0.3 °C), and no significant change in summer temperature. Precipitation does not show significant changes but exhibits a seasonal shift, with less precipitation from April to September and more precipitation from October to April during the MH in both regions. The mass balance model simulates a climatic ELA that is 15–33 m lower during the MH compared with PI conditions. We suggest that the main causes of this difference are driven mainly by colder temperatures associated with the MH simulation. Differences in temperature have a dual effect on glacier mass balance: (i) less energy is available for ablation during summer and early autumn and (ii) lower temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as snow rather than rain in late autumn and winter, resulting in more accumulation and higher surface albedo. For these reasons, we postulate that the modelled ELA changes, although small, may help to explain larger glacier extents observed by 6000 years BP in South America and New Zealand.

scholarly journals Downscaled precipitation applied in modelling of mass balance and the evolution of southeast Vatnajökull, Iceland

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (228) ◽  
pp. 799-813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrafnhildur Hannesdóttir ◽  
Guðfinna Ađalgeirsdóttir ◽  
Tómas Jóhannesson ◽  
Sverrir Guđmundsson ◽  
Philippe Crochet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Annual Balance ◽  
Measured Mass

AbstractSimulations of the post-Little Ice Age evolution of three outlet glaciers of southeast Vatnajökull, Iceland – Skálafellsjökull, Heinabergsjökull and Fláajökull – are presented. A coupled shallow-ice-approximation ice-flow and degree-day mass-balance model is applied that is calibrated with a 14 year record of in situ mass-balance measurements. The measured mass balance cannot be realistically represented by constant horizontal and vertical precipitation gradients. High-resolution (1 km) precipitation fields, derived from downscaled orographic atmospheric circulation models of precipitation, are required to capture the spatial variation of the winter mass balance. The observed ice volume around 1890 (15–30% larger than in 2000) can be simulated with 1°C lower temperatures and a 20% reduction in the annual precipitation, relative to the reference climate period, 1980–2000. The sensitivity of each glacier’s annual balance to a change in temperature is −1.51 to −0.97 m w.e. a−1 °C−1 and +0.16 to +0.65 m w.e. a−1 for a 10% increase in precipitation. A steady-state experiment applying a step increase in temperature of 2°C (3°C), and precipitation increase of 10%, results in a >50% (80–90%) decrease in ice volume.

scholarly journals Relation between recent glacier variations and climate in the Tien Shan mountains, central Asia

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Chaohai ◽  
Han Tianding
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains

Since the Little Ice Age, most glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains have been retreating. Owing to an increase in precipitation in most parts of the mountains during the late 1950s to early 1970s, the percentage of receding glaciers and the speed of retreat have tended to decrease in the 1970s. However, the general trend of continuous glacier retreat remains unchanged, in part because the summer air temperature shows no tendency to decrease.In the Tien Shan mountains, as the degree of climatic continentality increases the mass balance becomes more dependent on summer temperature, and accumulation and ablation tend to be lower. Therefore, the responses of glaciers to climatic fluctuations in more continental areas are not synchronous with those in less continental areas, and the amplitude of the glacier variations becomes smaller.

scholarly journals Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Brice Noël ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Michiel R. van den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Retention Model ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Cap

Abstract. In this study the dynamics and sensitivity to climatic forcing of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) are investigated with a coupled ice flow – mass balance model. The surface mass balance is calculated from a Positive Degree-Day runoff/retention model, for which the input parameters are derived from field observations. The precipitation field is obtained from the Regional Climate Model RACMO2.3. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermo-mechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Compared to the Shallow-Ice Approximation this modifies the steady state ice cap volume by 6-8% and the area by 2–4 %. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions a steady state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB-elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005–2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea-ice and corresponding precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss, but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat while the interior is projected to grow, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate (+4 °C) and high warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear respectively around 2400 and 2200 A.D., almost irrespective of the projected precipitation regime and the simulated present-day geometry.

scholarly journals Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1857-1869 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.-C. Wang ◽  
H. Behling ◽  
T.-Q. Lee ◽  
H.-C. Li ◽  
C.-A. Huh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Agricultural Activities ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrological Conditions ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract. We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100–1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 – AD 1400–1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 – AD 1630–1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

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