scholarly journals Analysis of the 2014 Wet Extreme in Bulgaria: Anomalies of Temperature, Precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Biliana Mircheva ◽  
Milen Tsekov ◽  
Ulrich Meyer ◽  
Guergana Guerova
Keyword(s):  
Water Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Linear Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Forecasting And Warning ◽  
Positive Correlations

Impact on the hydrology cycle is projected to be one of the most noticeable consequences of climate change. An increase in regional dry and wet extremes has already been observed, resulting in large socioeconomic losses. The 2014 wet conditions in Bulgaria present a valuable case study for analyzing the interaction between multiple drivers that are essential for early forecasting and warning of flood events. In this paper, time series analysis of temperature, precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) is performed and cross-correlations between observations and climate variability indices are computed for a 12-year period. In Bulgaria, a positive linear temperature trend was found with precipitation and TWSA exhibiting negative trends for the period 2003–2014. The year 2014 started with a drier and warmer than usual winter followed by five consecutive wet months from March to July. We found the following long-term variations: (1) temperature showing a local minimum in November 2014, (2) precipitation peaks in July 2014 and (3) a local TWSA maximum in December 2014. Over a 12-year period, weak to moderate negative correlations were observed between the long-term components of temperature, precipitation and TWSA. Moderate positive correlations with a 3 to 6-month lag were obtained between precipitation and TWSA long-term components. The long-term trends of temperature and precipitation from surface observations and atmospheric reanalysis showed very good alignment. Very large subseasonal precipitation residuals from observations and atmospheric reanalysis were obtained for April and September 2014. Two oscillation indices showed: (1) weak correlations with precipitation and (2) weak to moderate correlations with TWSA.

scholarly journals Specifics of long-term dynamics of terrestrial water storage detected using GRACE satellite in Belgorod region

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-374
Author(s):  
Igor Yu. Savin ◽  
Bakhytnur S. Gabdullin
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
North West ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Grace Satellite

GRACE monthly satellite data for the period from 2002 to 2016 were used to analyze the longterm dynamics of the terrestrial water storage in the Belgorod region of Russia. The correlation of satellite data with climatic water balance with a lag varying on the territory from 2 to 4 months was revealed. There was found a stable tendency to decrease in terrestrial water storage, and predominance of negative values on the territory of the Belgorod region since 2008. The minimum attains the lowest values in comparison with the whole studied period. However, seasonality of the changes is maintained throughout the entire analyzed time series. The frequency of changes in the terrestrial water storage throughout the entire area is not very clear: only the long-term maximum of the terrestrial water storage of the territory in 2006 is well expressed. Another, less pronounced local maximum was observed in 2013. Local long-term minima of the terrestrial water storage of the territory were in 2002, 2009 and 2015. There is a positive trend in the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations in the terrestrial water storage of the territory: the amplitude has been constantly increasing in recent years. The territory of the Belgorod region has negative long-term trend of terrestrial water storage with their rather large spatial variation. The angle of inclination of the trend decreases from north-west to south-east in the region. GRACE satellite data can serve as a fairly reliable detection indicator of the trend of terrestrial water storage in large areas.

scholarly journals Reconstructing Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from 1980 to 2015 in the Beishan Area of China

Geofluids ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjie Yin ◽  
Litang Hu ◽  
Shin-Chan Han ◽  
Menglin Zhang ◽  
Yanguo Teng
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Balance Method ◽  
Disposal Site ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Water Balance Method ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Beishan Area

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a key element in the global and continental water cycle. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided a highly valuable dataset, which allows the study of TWS over larger river basins worldwide. However, the lifetime of GRACE is too short to demonstrate long-term variability in TWS. In the Beishan area of northwestern China, which is selected as the most prospective site for high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) disposal, the assessment of long-term TWS changes is crucial to understand disposal safety. Monthly and annual TWS changes during the past 35 years are reconstructed using GRACE data, other remote sensing products, and the water balance method. Hydrological flux outputs from multisource remote sensing products are analyzed and compared to select appropriate data sources. The results show that a decreasing trend is found for GRACE-filtered and Center for Space Research (CSR) mascon solutions from 2003 to 2015, with slopes of −2.30 ± 0.52 and −1.52 ± 0.24 mm/year, respectively. TWS variations independently computed from the water balance method also show a similar decreasing trend with the GRACE observations, with a slope of −0.94 mm/year over the same period. Overall, the TWS anomalies in the Beishan area change seasonally within 10 mm and have been decreasing since 1980, keeping a desirable dry condition as a HLRW disposal site.

scholarly journals Long-term variations in water storage in Peninsular Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1180-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pennan Chinnasamy ◽  
Revathi Ganapathy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract Information on ongoing climate change impacts on water availability is limited for Asian regions, particularly for Peninsular Malaysia. Annual flash floods are common during peak monsoon seasons, while the dry seasons are hit by droughts, leading to socio-economic stress. This study, for the first time, analyzed the long-term trends (14 years, from 2002 to 2014) in terrestrial water storage and groundwater storage for Peninsular Malaysia, using Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment data. Results indicate a decline in net terrestrial and groundwater storage over the last decade. Spatially, the northern regions are more affected by droughts, while the southern regions have more flash floods. Groundwater storage trends show strong correlations to the monsoon seasons, indicating that most of the shallow aquifer groundwater is used. Results also indicate that, with proper planning and management, excess monsoon/flash flood water can be stored in water storage structures up to the order of 87 billion liters per year. This can help in dry season water distribution and water transfer projects. Findings from this study can expand the understanding of ongoing climate change impacts on groundwater storage and terrestrial water storage, and can lead to better management of water resources in Peninsular Malaysia.

scholarly journals Emerging Changes in Terrestrial Water Storage Variability as a Target for Future Satellite Gravity Missions

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 3898
Author(s):  
Laura Jensen ◽  
Annette Eicker ◽  
Henryk Dobslaw ◽  
Roland Pail
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Climate change will affect the terrestrial water cycle during the next decades by impacting the seasonal cycle, interannual variations, and long-term linear trends of water stored at or beyond the surface. Since 2002, terrestrial water storage (TWS) has been globally observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on mission (GRACE-FO). Next Generation Gravity Missions (NGGMs) are planned to extend this record in the near future. Based on a multi-model ensemble of climate model output provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) covering the years 2002–2100, we assess possible changes in TWS variability with respect to present-day conditions to help defining scientific requirements for NGGMs. We find that present-day GRACE accuracies are sufficient to detect amplitude and phase changes in the seasonal cycle in a third of the land surface, whereas a five times more accurate double-pair mission could resolve such changes almost everywhere outside the most arid landscapes of our planet. We also select one individual model experiment out of the CMIP6 ensemble that closely matches both GRACE observations and the multi-model median of all CMIP6 realizations, which might serve as basis for satellite mission performance studies extending over many decades to demonstrate the suitability of NGGM satellite missions to monitor long-term climate variations in the terrestrial water cycle.

scholarly journals Multiple Data Products Reveal Long-Term Variation Characteristics of Terrestrial Water Storage and Its Dominant Factors in Data-Scarce Alpine Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2356
Author(s):  
Xuanxuan Wang ◽  
Liu Liu ◽  
Qiankun Niu ◽  
Hao Li ◽  
Zongxue Xu
Keyword(s):  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Variation Characteristics ◽  
Spatio Temporal

As the “Water Tower of Asia” and “The Third Pole” of the world, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) shows great sensitivity to global climate change, and the change in its terrestrial water storage has become a focus of attention globally. Differences in multi-source data and different calculation methods have caused great uncertainty in the accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage. In this study, the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), located in the southeast of the QTP, was selected as the study area, with the aim of investigating the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC). Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data from 2003 to 2017, combined with the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) data and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, were adopted for the performance evaluation of TWSC estimation. Based on ERA5 and GLDAS, the terrestrial water balance method (PER) and the summation method (SS) were used to estimate terrestrial water storage, obtaining four sets of TWSC, which were compared with TWSC derived from GRACE. The results show that the TWSC estimated by the SS method based on GLDAS is most consistent with the results of GRACE. The time-lag effect was identified in the TWSC estimated by the PER method based on ERA5 and GLDAS, respectively, with 2-month and 3-month lags. Therefore, based on the GLDAS, the SS method was used to further explore the long-term temporal and spatial evolution of TWSC in the YZRB. During the period of 1948–2017, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend; however, an abrupt change in TWSC was detected around 2002. That is, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend before 2002 (slope = 0.0236 mm/month, p < 0.01) but a significantly decreasing trend (slope = −0.397 mm/month, p < 0.01) after 2002. Additional attribution analysis on the abrupt change in TWSC before and after 2002 was conducted, indicating that, compared with the snow water equivalent, the soil moisture dominated the long-term variation of TWSC. In terms of spatial distribution, TWSC showed a large spatial heterogeneity, mainly in the middle reaches with a high intensity of human activities and the Parlung Zangbo River Basin, distributed with great glaciers. The results obtained in this study can provide reliable data support and technical means for exploring the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of terrestrial water storage in data-scarce alpine regions.

Variability of Basin-Scale Terrestrial Water Storage from a PER Water Budget Method: The Amazon and the Mississippi

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Zeng ◽  
Jin-Ho Yoon ◽  
Annarita Mariotti ◽  
Sean Swenson
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract In an approach termed the PER method, where the key input variables are observed precipitation P and runoff R and estimated evaporation, the authors apply the basin water budget equation to diagnose the long-term variability of the total terrestrial water storage (TWS). Unlike the typical offline land surface model estimate where only atmospheric variables are used as input, the direct use of observed runoff in the PER method imposes an important constraint on the diagnosed TWS. Although there is a lack of basin-scale observations of evaporation, the tendency of E to have significantly less variability than the difference between precipitation and runoff (P − R) minimizes the uncertainties originating from estimated evaporation. Compared to the more traditional method using atmospheric moisture convergence (MC) minus R (MCR method), the use of observed precipitation in the PER method is expected to lead to general improvement, especially in regions where atmospheric radiosonde data are too sparse to constrain the atmospheric model analyzed MC, such as in the remote tropics. TWS was diagnosed using the PER method for the Amazon (1970–2006) and the Mississippi basin (1928–2006) and compared with the MCR method, land surface model and reanalyses, and NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity data. The seasonal cycle of diagnosed TWS over the Amazon is about 300 mm. The interannual TWS variability in these two basins is 100–200 mm, but multidecadal changes can be as large as 600–800 mm. Major droughts, such as the Dust Bowl period, had large impacts, with water storage depleted by 500 mm over a decade. Within the short period 2003–06 when GRACE data were available, PER and GRACE show good agreement both for seasonal cycle and interannual variability, providing potential to cross validate each other. In contrast, land surface model results are significantly smaller than PER and GRACE, especially toward longer time scales. While the authors currently lack independent means to verify these long-term changes, simple error analysis using three precipitation datasets and three evaporation estimates suggest that the multidecadal amplitude can be uncertain up to a factor of 2, while the agreement is high on interannual time scales. The large TWS variability implies the remarkable capacity of land surface in storing and taking up water that may be underrepresented in models. The results also suggest the existence of water storage memories on multiyear time scales, significantly longer than typically assumed seasonal time scales associated with surface soil moisture.

scholarly journals Estimation of hydrological drought recovery based on precipitation and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water storage deficit

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-526
Author(s):  
Alka Singh ◽  
John Thomas Reager ◽  
Ali Behrangi
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Period ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Drought Recovery ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Gravity Recovery ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Drought is a natural extreme climate phenomenon that presents great challenges in forecasting and monitoring for water management purposes. Previous studies have examined the use of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies to measure the amount of water missing from a drought-affected region, and other studies have attempted statistical approaches to drought recovery forecasting based on joint probabilities of precipitation and soil moisture. The goal of this study is to combine GRACE data and historical precipitation observations to quantify the amount of precipitation required to achieve normal storage conditions in order to estimate a likely drought recovery time. First, linear relationships between terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and cumulative precipitation anomaly are established across a range of conditions. Then, historical precipitation data are statistically modeled to develop simplistic precipitation forecast skill based on climatology and long-term trend. Two additional precipitation scenarios are simulated to predict the recovery period by using a standard deviation in climatology and long-term trend. Precipitation scenarios are convolved with water deficit estimates (from GRACE) to calculate the best estimate of a drought recovery period. The results show that, in the regions of strong seasonal amplitude (like a monsoon belt), drought continues even with above-normal precipitation until its wet season. The historical GRACE-observed drought recovery period is used to validate the approach. Estimated drought for an example month demonstrated an 80 % recovery period, as observed by the GRACE.

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