scholarly journals A Catalogue of Tropical Cyclone Induced Instantaneous Peak Flows Recorded in Puerto Rico and a Comparison with the World’s Maxima

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Ramos-Scharrón ◽  
Caroline T. Garnett ◽  
Eugenio Y. Arima
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Tropical Depressions ◽  
Peak Streamflow ◽  
Eastern Half

Peak streamflow rates from the Insular Caribbean have received limited attention in worldwide catalogues in spite of their potential for exceptionality given many of the islands’ steep topographic relief and proneness to high rainfall rates associated with tropical cyclones. This study compiled 1922 area-normalized peak streamflow rates recorded during tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico from 1899 to 2020. The results show that the highest peak flow values recorded on the island were within the range of the world’s maxima for watersheds with drainage areas from 10 to 619 km2. Although higher tropical cyclone rainfall and streamflow rates were observed on average for the central–eastern half of Puerto Rico, the highest of all cyclone-related peaks occurred throughout the entire island and were caused by tropical depressions, tropical storms, or hurricanes. Improving our understanding of instantaneous peak flow rates in Puerto Rico and other islands of the Caribbean is locally important due to their significance in terms of flooding extent and its associated impacts, but also because these could serve as indicators of the implications of a changing climate on tropical cyclone intensity and the associated hydrologic response.

scholarly journals The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Update and New Capabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 905-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy L. Olander ◽  
Christopher S. Velden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Performance Characteristics ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Algorithm Development ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Development Team ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Estimation Scheme

Abstract The advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) is used operationally by tropical cyclone forecast centers worldwide to help estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) from operational geostationary meteorological satellites. New enhancements to the objective ADT have been implemented by the algorithm development team to further expand its capabilities and precision. The advancements include the following: 1) finer tuning to aircraft-based TC intensity estimates in an expanded development sample, 2) the incorporation of satellite-based microwave information into the intensity estimation scheme, 3) more sophisticated automated TC center-fixing routines, 4) adjustments to the intensity estimates for subtropical systems and TCs undergoing extratropical transition, and 5) addition of a surface wind radii estimation routine. The goals of these upgrades and others are to provide TC analysts/forecasters with an expanded objective guidance tool to more accurately estimate the intensity of TCs and those storms forming from, or converting into, hybrid/nontropical systems. The 2018 TC season is used to illustrate the performance characteristics of the upgraded ADT.

scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

scholarly journals Satellite-based monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and movement

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-168
Author(s):  
R. R. KELKAR
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Estimation Scheme ◽  
Water Vapour Absorption ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Absorption Channel ◽  
The Impact

    ABSTRACT. Capabilities of meteorological satellites have gone a long way in meeting requirements of synoptic analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. This paper shows the impact made by the satellite data in the intensity estimation and track prediction of tropical cyclones in the Indian Seas and also reviews the universally applied Dvorak algorithm for performing tropical cyclone intensity analysis. Extensive use of Dvorak's intensity estimation scheme has revealed many of its limitations and elements of subjectivity in the analysis of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which, like cyclones in other ocean basins, also exhibit wide structural variability as seen in the satellite imagery. Satellite-based cyclone tracking techniques include: (i) use of satellite-derived mean wind flow,             (ii) animation of sequence of satellite images and extrapolation of the apparent motion of the cloud system and (iii) monitoring changes in the upper level moisture patterns in the water vapour absorption channel imagery. Satellite-based techniques on tropical cyclone intensity estimation and track prediction have led to very significant improvement in disaster warning and consequent saving of life and property.    

scholarly journals Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liang ◽  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Guojun Gu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Tropical Western North Pacific

Abstract As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3562-3578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
I-I. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Strong Mixing ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina followed by the devastation of the U.S. Gulf States highlights the critical role played by an upper-oceanic thermal structure (such as the ocean eddy or Loop Current) in affecting the development of tropical cyclones. In this paper, the impact of the ocean eddy on tropical cyclone intensity is investigated using a simple hurricane–ocean coupled model. Numerical experiments with different oceanic thermal structures are designed to elucidate the responses of tropical cyclones to the ocean eddy and the effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean. This simple model shows that rapid intensification occurs as a storm encounters the ocean eddy because of enhanced heat flux. While strong winds usually cause strong mixing in the mixed layer and thus cool down the sea surface, negative feedback to the storm intensity of this kind is limited by the presence of a warm ocean eddy, which provides an insulating effect against the storm-induced mixing and cooling. Two eddy factors, FEDDY-S and FEDDY-T, are defined to evaluate the effect of the eddy on tropical cyclone intensity. The efficiency of the eddy feedback effect depends on both the oceanic structure and other environmental parameters, including properties of the tropical cyclone. Analysis of the functionality of FEDDY-T shows that the mixed layer depth associated with either the large-scale ocean or the eddy is the most important factor in determining the magnitude of eddy feedback effects. Next to them are the storm’s translation speed and the ambient relative humidity.

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Generated Waves; Case studies of Irma, Maria and Dorian

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Pamela Probst ◽  
Bora Yalciner ◽  
Alessandro Annunziato ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean

<p>Tropical cyclones can be considered one type of extreme event, with their destructive winds, torrential rainfall and storm surge. Every year these natural phenomena affect millions of people around the world, leaving a trail of destruction in several countries, especially along the coastal areas. Only in 2017, two devastating major hurricanes (Irma and Maria) moved across the Caribbean and south-eastern USA, causing extensive damage and deaths. Irma formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on 30 August 2017 and moved towards the Caribbean islands during the following week, significantly strengthening, becoming a Category 5 Hurricane. It caused wide-ranging impacts such as significant storm surge (up to 3m according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA report) to several islands in the Caribbean and Florida. On the second half of September, 2017, another strong Category 5 Hurricane named Maria formed over the Atlantic and moved west towards the Caribbean Sea. Maria also caused several impacts and severe damage in Caribbean Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to high speed winds, rainfall, flooding and storm surge with a maximum runup of 3.7 m (US NOAA) on the southern tip of Dominica Island. The most recent devastating event for the Atlantic is Hurricane Dorian. It formed on August 24, 2019 over the Atlantic Ocean and it moved towards the Caribbean islands, as getting stronger as moving, becoming a Category 5 before reaching the Bahamas, where it left a trail of destruction after its passage. The major effect of Dorian was on north-western Bahamas with very strong winds, heavy rainfall and a large storm surge.</p><p>In this context, a rapid and reliable modeling of storm surge generated by such kind of events is essential for many purposes such as early accurate assessment of the situation, forecasting, estimation of potential impact in coastal areas, and operational issues like emergency management.</p><p>A numerical model, NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS (Tsunami-Storm Surge) is developed building up on tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE GPU version to solve nonlinear shallow water equations, using the pressure and wind fields as inputs to compute spatial and temporal distribution of water level throughout the study domain and respective inundation related to tropical cyclones, based on the equations used in the HyFlux2 Code developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The code provides a rapid calculation since it is structured for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) using CUDA API.</p><p>NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS has been applied to many cases as regular shaped basins under circular static and dynamic pressure fields separately and also different wind fields for validation together with combinations of pressure and wind fields. This study has been conducted to investigate the potential of numerical modeling of tropical cyclone generated storm surge based on recent events Irma, Maria and Dorian. The results are presented and discussed based on comparison with the measurements and observations. The study shows promise for developing a cyclone modeling capability based on available measurement and observational data.</p>

scholarly journals Using Mesoscale Simulations to Train Statistical Models of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over Land

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 2058-2073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Colette ◽  
Nadja Leith ◽  
Vincent Daniel ◽  
Enrica Bellone ◽  
David S. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Mesoscale Simulations

Abstract The decay of tropical cyclones after landfall is a key factor in estimating the extent of the hazard overland. Yet our current understanding of this decay is challenged by the low frequency of past events. Consequently, one cannot rely solely upon the historical record when attempting to quantify robustly the inland penetration of tropical cyclones. Thus, a framework designed to complement the historical record of landfalling storms by means of numerical modeling is introduced. Historical meteorological situations that could potentially have led to a landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico are targeted and, using a bogus vortex technique in conjunction with a mesoscale model, a large number of landfalling hurricanes are simulated. The numerical ensemble constitutes a more comprehensive sample of possible landfalling hurricanes: it encompasses the range of events observed in the past but is not constrained to it. This allows us to revisit existing statistical models of the decay of tropical cyclones after landfall. A range of statistical models trained on the numerical ensemble of storms are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the inland decay of historical storms. These models have more skill at predicting tropical cyclone intensity over land than similar models trained exclusively on historical data.

Observational Evidence for Oceanic Controls on Hurricane Intensity

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1138-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian D. Lloyd ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Ocean Stratification ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of oceanic changes on tropical cyclone activity is investigated using observational estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), air–sea fluxes, and ocean subsurface thermal structure during the period 1998–2007. SST conditions are examined before, during, and after the passage of tropical cyclones, through Lagrangian composites along cyclone tracks across all ocean basins, with particular focus on the North Atlantic. The influence of translation speed is explored by separating tropical cyclones according to the translation speed divided by the Coriolis parameter. On average for tropical cyclones up to category 2, SST cooling becomes larger as cyclone intensity increases, peaking at 1.8 K in the North Atlantic. Beyond category 2 hurricanes, however, the cooling no longer follows an increasing monotonic relationship with intensity. In the North Atlantic, the cooling for stronger hurricanes decreases, while in other ocean basins the cyclone-induced cooling does not significantly differ from category 2 to category 5 tropical cyclones, with the exception of the South Pacific. Since the SST response is nonmonotonic, with stronger cyclones producing more cooling up to category 2, but producing less or approximately equal cooling for categories 3–5, the observations indicate that oceanic feedbacks can inhibit intensification of cyclones. This result implies that large-scale oceanic conditions are a control on tropical cyclone intensity, since they control oceanic sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Ocean subsurface thermal data provide additional support for this dependence, showing weaker upper-ocean stratification for stronger tropical cyclones. Intensification is suppressed by strong ocean stratification since it favors large SST cooling, but the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify is less inhibited when stratification is weak and cyclone-induced SST cooling is small. Thus, after accounting for tropical cyclone translation speeds and latitudes, it is argued that reduced cooling under extreme tropical cyclones is the manifestation of the impact of oceanic conditions on the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify.

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 690-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel F. Piñeros ◽  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie ◽  
J. Scott Tyo
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Infrared Image ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Maximum Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Maximum Wind

Abstract This paper describes results from a near-real-time objective technique for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite infrared imagery in the North Atlantic Ocean basin. The technique quantifies the level of organization or axisymmetry of the infrared cloud signature of a tropical cyclone as an indirect measurement of its maximum wind speed. The final maximum wind speed calculated by the technique is an independent estimate of tropical cyclone intensity. Seventy-eight tropical cyclones from the 2004–09 seasons are used both to train and to test independently the intensity estimation technique. Two independent tests are performed to test the ability of the technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity accurately. The best results from these tests have a root-mean-square intensity error of between 13 and 15 kt (where 1 kt ≈ 0.5 m s−1) for the two test sets.

scholarly journals The Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Temperature Profile Change

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Done ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann ◽  
Andreas F. Prein
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Temperature Profile ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Vertical Temperature Profile ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Profile Change

Abstract. Theory indicates that tropical cyclone intensity should respond to changes in the vertical temperature profile. While the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature is well understood, less is known about sensitivity to the temperature profile. In this paper, we combine historical data analysis and idealised modelling to explore the extent to which historical tropospheric warming and lower stratospheric cooling can explain observed trends in the tropical cyclone intensity distribution. Observations and modelling agree that historical global temperature profile changes coincide with higher lifetime maximum intensities. But observations suggest the response depends on the tropical cyclone intensity itself. Historical lower- and upper-tropospheric temperatures in hurricane environments have warmed significantly faster than the tropical mean. In addition, hurricane-strength storms have intensified at twice the rate of weaker storms per unit warming at the surface and at 300-hPa. Idealized simulations respond in the expected sense to various imposed changes in the temperature profile and agree with tropical cyclones operating as heat engines. Yet lower stratospheric temperature changes have little influence. Idealised modelling further shows an increasing altitude of the TC outflow but little change in outflow temperature. This enables increased efficiency for strong tropical cyclones despite the warming upper troposphere. Observed sensitivities are generally larger than modelled sensitivities, suggesting that observed tropical cyclone intensity change responds to a combination of the temperature profile change and other environmental factors.

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