scholarly journals Emergency Evacuation Plan for Hazardous Chemicals Leakage Accidents Using GIS-based Risk Analysis Techniques in South Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 1948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byungtae Yoo ◽  
Sang D. Choi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Hazardous Chemicals ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Chlorine Gas ◽  
Evacuation Plan

Despite improvements in chemical safety management systems, incidents involving the release of hazardous chemicals continue to happen. In some cases, they result in the evacuation of residents. For hazardous chemical release accidents, an evacuation plan needs to be selective enough to consider both the indoor and outdoor concentrations of nearby buildings and the time in which the maximum allowable concentration may occur. In this study, a real-time risk analysis tool was developed based on the geographic information system (GIS) in order to establish the emergency response and risk communication plan for effectively assisting decision-making personnel. A selective evacuation plan was also established by a proposed assessment module considering the indoor/outdoor pollution concentration of buildings and the release duration time of chlorine gas leakage. The GIS-based simulated modules were performed based on eleven buildings of Ulsan city, located near an industrial cluster and home to a high population density. As a result of the simulated real-time risk assessment, only four buildings were affected by chlorine gas concentration according to wind direction and diffusion time. In addition, it was considered effective to establish an indoor/outdoor evacuation plan as opposed to an outdoor evacuation plan which is outside the range of the damage. Subsequently, an emergency evacuation plan was established with the concentration of a hazardous chemical according to the decision-making matrix. This study can enlighten the real-time emergency risk assessment based on GIS while effectively supporting the emergency action plans in response to the release of hazardous chemicals in clustered plants and the community.

Research on Supervision System of Hazardous Chemical of Small & Medium-Scaled Cities in China Based on WEBGIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 3340-3344
Author(s):  
Xiang Yun Wan ◽  
Hao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Hazardous Chemicals ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
Supervision System ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Potential Safety ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Safety Production ◽  
Administrative Licensing

The supervision system of hazardous chemical based on the WEBGIS technology is constructed, which displays the reality of the situation and simulates the accident consequence of security risks ( including major risk sources ) to the user in the form of map, realizes the registration of hazardous chemicals, enterprise qualification examination, administrative licensing of hazardous chemical construction projects, and investigation and rectification of the potential safety hazard in hazardous chemicals enterprise as well as management and supervision in other related business process through information means, and improves the ability of supervision and emergency rescue in chemical safety production. It has an important significance to prevent and control the major hazard. This paper introduces the supervision system of hazardous chemicals and the structure, database design, and system application of the supervision system.

IoT-based real time intelligent routing for emergent crowd evacuation

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 604-624
Author(s):  
Yanlan Mei ◽  
Ping Gui ◽  
Xianfeng Luo ◽  
Benbu Liang ◽  
Liuliu Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Guidance System ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Metro Station ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crowd Evacuation ◽  
Evacuation Route

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to take advantage of Internet of Things (IoT) for intelligent route programming of crowd emergency evacuation in metro station. It is a novel approach to ensure the crowd safety and reduce the casualties in the emergency context. An evacuation route programming model is constructed to select a suitable evacuation route and support the emergency decision maker of metro station. Design/methodology/approach The IoT technology is employed to collect and screen information, and to construct an expert decision model to support the metro station manager to make decision. As a feasible way to solve the multiple criteria decision-making problem, an improved multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) approach is introduced. Findings The case study indicates that the model provides valuable suggestions for evacuation route programming and offers practical support for the design of an evacuation route guidance system. Moreover, IoT plays an important role in the process of intelligent route programming of crowd emergency evacuation in metro station. A library has similar structure and crowd characteristics of a metro station, thus the intelligent route programming approach can be applied to the library crowd evacuation. Originality/value The highlights of this paper are listed as followings: the accuracy and accessibility of the metro station’s real-time information are improved by integrating IoT technology with the intelligent route programming of crowd emergency evacuation. An improved MABAC approach is introduced to the expert support model. It promotes the applicability and reliability of decision making for emergency evacuation route selection in metro station. It is a novel way to combine the decision-making methods with practice.

scholarly journals Combining semi-quantitative risk assessment, composite indicator and fuzzy logic for evaluation of hazardous chemical accidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huyen Thi Thu Do ◽  
Tram Thi Bich Ly ◽  
Tho Tien Do
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Triangular Fuzzy Number ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
Chemical Accidents ◽  
Hazardous Chemical ◽  
Industrial Zones

Abstract In this study, a combination of semi-quantitative risk assessment, composite indicator and fuzzy logic has been developed to identify industrial establishments and processes that represent potential environmental accidents associated with hazardous chemicals. The proposed method takes into consideration the root causes of risk probability of hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs), such as unsafe onsite storing and usage, inadequate operation training, poor safety management and analysis, equipment failure, and factors affected by the potential consequences of the accidents, including human health, water resources, and building and construction. These issues have been aggregated in a system of criteria and sub-criteria, demonstrated by a list of non-overlapping and exhaustive categorical terms. Semi-quantitative risk assessment is then applied to develop a framework for screening industrial establishments that exhibit potential HCAs. Fuzzy set theory with triangular fuzzy number deals with the uncertainty associated with the data input and reduces the influence of subjectivity and vagueness to the final results. The proposed method was tested among 77 industrial establishments located within the industrial zones of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Eighteen establishments were categorized as high HCA risk, 36 establishments were categorized as medium HCA risk, and 23 ones were of low HCA risk. The results are compatible with the practical chemical safety situation of the establishments and are consistent with expert evaluation.

scholarly journals Multi-Ship Collision Avoidance Decision-Making Based on Collision Risk Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 640
Author(s):  
Yingjun Hu ◽  
Anmin Zhang ◽  
Wuliu Tian ◽  
Jinfen Zhang ◽  
Zebei Hou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Collision Avoidance ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Ship Collision ◽  
Risk Thresholds

Most maritime accidents are caused by human errors or failures. Providing early warning and decision support to the officer on watch (OOW) is one of the primary issues to reduce such errors and failures. In this paper, a quantitative real-time multi-ship collision risk analysis and collision avoidance decision-making model is proposed. Firstly, a multi-ship real-time collision risk analysis system was established under the overall requirements of the International Code for Collision Avoidance at Sea (COLREGs) and good seamanship, based on five collision risk influencing factors. Then, the fuzzy logic method is used to calculate the collision risk and analyze these elements in real time. Finally, decisions on changing course or changing speed are made to avoid collision. The results of collision avoidance decisions made at different collision risk thresholds are compared in a series of simulations. The results reflect that the multi-ship collision avoidance decision problem can be well-resolved using the proposed multi-ship collision risk evaluation method. In particular, the model can also make correct decisions when the collision risk thresholds of ships in the same scenario are different. The model can provide a good collision risk warning and decision support for the OOW in real-time mode.

scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

scholarly journals Real-Time Data for Risk Assessment in the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Paltrinieri ◽  
Gabriele Landucci ◽  
Pierluigi Salvo Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Oil

Recent major accidents in the offshore oil and gas (O&G) industry have showed inadequate assessment of system risk and demonstrated the need to improve risk analysis. While direct causes often differ, the failure to update risk evaluation on the basis of system changes/modifications has been a recurring problem. Risk is traditionally defined as a measure of the accident likelihood and the magnitude of loss, usually assessed as damage to people, to the environment, and/or economic loss. Recent revisions of such definition include also aspects of uncertainty. However, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in the offshore O&G industry is based on consolidated procedures and methods, where periodic evaluation and update of risk is not commonly carried out. Several methodologies were recently developed for dynamic risk analysis of the offshore O&G industry. Dynamic fault trees, Markov chain models for the life-cycle analysis, and Weibull failure analysis may be used for dynamic frequency evaluation and risk assessment update. Moreover, dynamic risk assessment methods were developed in order to evaluate the risk by updating initial failure probabilities of events (causes) and safety barriers as new information are made available. However, the mentioned techniques are not widely applied in the common O&G offshore practice due to several reasons, among which their complexity has a primary role. More intuitive approaches focusing on a selected number of critical factors have also been suggested, such as the Risk Barometer or the TEC2O. Such techniques are based on the evaluation of technical, operational and organizational factors. The methodology allows supporting periodic update of QRA by collecting and aggregating a set of indicators. However, their effectiveness relies on continuous monitoring activity and realtime data capturing. For this reason, this contribution focuses on the coupling of such methods with sensors of different nature located in or around and offshore O&G system. The inheritance from the Centre for Integrated Operations in the Petroleum Industries represents the basis of such study. Such approach may be beneficial for several cases in which (quasi) real-time risk evaluation may support critical operations. Two representative cases have been described: i) erosion and corrosion issues due to sand production; and ii) oil production in environmental sensitive areas. In both the cases, dynamic risk analysis may employ real-time data provided by sand, corrosion and leak detectors. A simulation of dynamic risk analysis has demonstrated how the variation of such data can affect the overall risk picture. In fact, this risk assessment approach has not only the capability to continuously iterate and outline improved system risk pictures, but it can also compare its results with sensor-measured data and allow for calibration. This can potentially guarantee progressive improvement of the method reliability for appropriate support to safety-critical decisions.

Initiating and Managing Risk Assessments within a Risk Analysis Framework: FDA/CFSAN'S Practical Approach

2004 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2058-2062 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT L. BUCHANAN ◽  
SHERRI DENNIS ◽  
MARIANNE MILIOTIS
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Risk Managers ◽  
The U.S

Management of risk analysis involves the integration and coordination of activities associated with risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk analysis is used to guide regulatory decision making, including trade decisions at national and international levels. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) formed a working group to evaluate and improve the quality and consistency of major risk assessments conducted by the Center. Drawing on risk analysis experiences, CFSAN developed a practical framework for initiating and managing risk assessments, including addressing issues related to (i) commissioning a risk assessment, (ii) interactions between risk managers and risk assessors, and (iii) peer review.

Utilization of Risk Analysis Methods in Decision-Making Process on Fitness of Rehabilitation

2014 ◽  
Vol 899 ◽  
pp. 568-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Kubečka ◽  
Pavel Vlček ◽  
Darja Kubečková ◽  
Daniel Pieszka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Claim Amount ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Analysis Methods

The paper reflects the possibility of utilization of methods and proceedings used in risk assessment for area different from nowadays usage. Risk determination is customary for large and significant constructions within the feasibility study. Used procedures and methods can be applied very well in some cases of experts and authorized proceedings, such as setting the sequence of buildings acceptable for reconstruction of objects in defined group, or setting the coefficient for specification of claim amount arisen in the construction in the case of time-independent price.

Intelligent decision-making with bird-strike risk assessment for airport bird repellent

2018 ◽  
Vol 122 (1252) ◽  
pp. 988-1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weishi Chen ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Jing Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Bird Strike ◽  
Intelligent Decision Making ◽  
Intelligent Decision

ABSTRACTAn intelligent decision-making method was proposed for airport bird-repelling based on a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and bird-strike risk assessment. The bird-strike risk assessment model is established with two exponential functions to separate the risk levels, while the SVM method includes two steps of training and testing. After the risk assessment, the Bird-Repelling Strategy Classification Model (BRSCM) was trained based on the expert knowledge and large amount of historical bird information collected by the airport linkage system for bird detection, surveillance and repelling. Then, in the testing step, the BRSCM was continuously optimised according to the real-time intelligent bird-repelling strategy results. Through several bird-repelling examples of a certain airport, it is demonstrated that the decision accuracy of BRSCM is relatively high, and it could solve new problems by self-correction. The proposed method achieved the optimised operation of multiple bird-repelling devices against real-time bird information with great improvement of bird-repelling effects, overcoming the tolerance of birds to the bird-repelling devices due to their long-term repeated operation.

Challenges of Railway Safety Risk Assessment and Maintenance Decision Making

2016 ◽  
pp. 173-211
Author(s):  
Min An ◽  
Yong Qin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Railway Industry ◽  
Railway Safety ◽  
Maintenance Decision ◽  
High Level ◽  
Railway Operation ◽  
Established Technique

Railway safety is a very complicated subject, which is determined by numerous aspects. Many of qualitative and quantitative railway safety and risk analysis techniques and methods are used in the industry. But, however, the railway industry faces problems and challenges on how to apply these techniques and methods effectively and efficiently, particularly in the circumstances where the risk data are incomplete or there is a high level of uncertainty involved in the risk data. This chapter approaches these subjects to discuss the problems and challenges of railway safety and risk analysis methods in dealing with uncertainties, and those growing needs of the industry. A well-established technique is also introduced in this chapter which can be used to identify major hazards and evaluate both qualitative and quantitative risk data, and information associated with railway operation efficiently and effectively in an acceptable way in various environments.

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