scholarly journals Assessing Global Frailty Scores: Development of a Global Burden of Disease-Frailty Index (GBD-FI)

Author(s):  
Mark O’Donovan ◽  
Duygu Sezgin ◽  
Zubair Kabir ◽  
Aaron Liew ◽  
Rónán O’Caoimh

Frailty is an independent age-associated predictor of morbidity and mortality. Despite this, many countries lack population estimates with large heterogeneity between studies. No population-based standardised metric for frailty is available. We applied the deficit accumulation model of frailty to create a frailty index (FI) using population-level estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study across 195 countries to create a novel GBD frailty index (GBD-FI). Standard FI criteria were applied to all GBD categories to select GBD-FI items. Content validity was assessed by comparing the GBD-FI with a selection of established FIs. Properties including the rate of deficit accumulation with age were examined to assess construct validity. Linear regression models were created to assess if mean GBD-FI scores predicted one-year incident mortality. From all 554 GBD items, 36 were selected for the GBD-FI. Face validity against established FIs was variable. Characteristic properties of a FI—higher mean score for females and a deficit accumulation rate of approximately 0.03 per year, were observed. GBD-FI items were responsible for 19% of total Disability-Adjusted Life Years for those aged ≥70 years in 2017. Country-specific mean GBD-FI scores ranged from 0.14 (China) to 0.19 (Hungary) and were a better predictor of mortality from non-communicable diseases than age, gender, Healthcare Access and Quality Index or Socio-Demographic Index scores. The GBD-FI is a valid measure of frailty at population-level but further external validation is required.

Author(s):  
Mark O’Donovan ◽  
Duygu Sezgin ◽  
Zubair Kabir ◽  
Aaron Liew ◽  
Rónán O’Caoimh

Frailty is an important age-associated risk-state. Despite this, many countries lack population estimates and large heterogeneity exists amongst studies. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, provides comparable high-quality population-level data for 195 countries and territories. Frailty has never been measured in the GBD studies. This analysis applies the deficit accumulation model to construct a novel frailty index (FI) using the GBD 2017 dataset. Standard FI criteria were applied to all GBD categories such that selected items were health-related, age-correlated, sufficiently prevalent, did not saturate at an early age, had little redundancy/duplication, covered a range of systems, were plausible and were available serially for the same population. From all 554 GBD items, 36 were selected including 26 non-communicable diseases, 3 metabolic risks, 3 biological impairments, infectious diarrheal diseases, protein-energy malnutrition, injurious falls, and low physical activity. Variable face validity was displayed against a selection of established FIs. The mean GBD-FI score for the global population aged ≥70 years in 2017 was 0.16; scores were higher in females than males (0.16 vs 0.15, respectively). Deficits accumulated with age at an estimated rate of 0.026 per year. Adding the mean GBD-FI scores to a regression model including country-level variables for demographics (proportion ≥85 years, proportion female), healthcare quality (HAQ index), and development (SDI) increased the adjusted r2 value from 27.0% to 39.6% (p<0.001) for predicting country-level death rates from non-communicable diseases, suggesting that the GBD-FI is a useful predictor of mortality. Further analysis is required to compare the reliability and predictive validity of the GBD-FI with existing frailty tools


2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Charalampous ◽  
Elena Pallari ◽  
Stefanos Tyrovolas ◽  
Nicos Middleton ◽  
Mary Economou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for over 90% of all deaths in the Cypriot population, in 2018. However, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the impact of NCDs on population health of Cyprus over the period of 1990 to 2017, expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), is currently not available. Knowledge about the drivers of changes in NCD DALYs over time is paramount to identify priorities for the prevention of NCDs in Cyprus and guide evidence-based decision making. The objectives of this paper were to: 1) assess the burden of NCDs in terms of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and DALYs in Cyprus in 2017, and 2) identify changes in the burden of NCDs in Cyprus over the 28-year period and assess the main drivers of these changes. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 results on NCDs for Cyprus from 1990 to 2017. We calculated the percentage change of age-standardized DALY rates between 1990 and 2017 and decomposed these time trends to assess the causes of death and disability that were the main drivers of change. Results In Cyprus in 2017, 83% (15,129 DALYs per 100,000; 12,809 to 17,707 95%UI) of total DALYs were due to NCDs. The major contributors to NCD DALYs were cardiovascular diseases (16.5%), neoplasms (16.3%), and musculoskeletal disorders (15.6%). Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardized NCD DALY rates decreased by 23%. For both males and females, the largest decreases in DALY rates were observed in ischemic heart disease and stroke. For Cypriot males, the largest increases in DALY rates were observed for pancreatic cancer, drug use disorders, and acne vulgaris, whereas for Cypriot females these were for acne vulgaris, psoriasis and eating disorders. Conclusion Despite a decrease in the burden of NCDs over the period from 1990 to 2017, NCDs are still a major public health challenge. Implementation of interventions and early detection screening programmes of modifiable NCD risk factors are needed to reduce occurrence and exacerbation of leading causes of NCDs in the Cypriot population.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shangbo Xu ◽  
Yiyuan Liu ◽  
Taofeng Zhang ◽  
Jiehua Zheng ◽  
Weixun Lin ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe burden of breast cancer has been increasing globally. The epidemiology burden and trends need to be updated. This study aimed to update the burden and trends of breast cancer incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.MethodsThe data of incidences, deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates were extracted. Estimated annual percentage changes were used to quantify the trends of age-standardized rates. Besides, the population attributable fractions of the risk factors of breast cancer were also estimated.ResultsGlobally, the incidences of breast cancer increased to 2,002,354 in 2019. High social-development index (SDI) quintiles had the highest incidence cases with a declining trend in age-standardized incidence rate. In 2019, the global deaths and DALYs of breast cancer increased to 700,660 and 20,625,313, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates declined globally, especially in high and high-middle SDI quintiles. Besides, the trends varied from different regions and countries. The proportion of the patients in the 70+ years age group increased globally. Deaths of breast cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index increased globally, and high fasting plasma glucose was the greatest contributor to the global breast cancer deaths.ConclusionThe burden of breast cancer in higher SDI quintiles had gone down while the burden was still on the rise in lower SDI quintiles. It is necessary to appeal to the public to decrease the exposure of the risk factors.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEEPAK DHAMNETIYA ◽  
Ravi Prakash Jha ◽  
Shalini . ◽  
Krittika Bhattacharyya

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease which contributes to the mortality and morbidity significantly in India and Brazil. This study was planned to compare the trends of incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of VL burden in India and Brazil from 1990 to 2019 using Global burden of disease study (GBD) data. The metrics are presented as age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants with their respective uncertainty intervals (95%UI) and relative percentages of change. The decline in the Incidence rate is more in case of India (16.82 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.60cases in 2019) as compared to Brazil (3.12 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.65 cases in 2019). The annualized rate of change in number of prevalent cases for India is -0.95 (95% UI, -0.98 to -0.91) whereas for Brazil it is -0.06 (95% UI, -0.41 to 0.52). The annualized rate of change in number of DALY for India is -0.94 (95% UI, -0.96 to -0.92) whereas for Brazil it is -0.09 (95% UI, -0.25 to 0.28). The annualized rate of change in number of deaths for India is -0.93 (95% UI, -0.95 to -0.92) whereas for Brazil it is increasing i.e. 0.04 (95% UI, -0.12 to 0.51). India achieves significant reduction in the age standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of VL as compare to Brazil during the period of 1990 to 2019. A multi-centric study is required to assess bottleneck in the existing strategies of VLSCP in Brazil.


Thorax ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. thoraxjnl-2020-216732
Author(s):  
Xiaoqian Ma ◽  
Lili Zhu ◽  
Jonathan S Kurche ◽  
Huijuan Xiao ◽  
Huaping Dai ◽  
...  

BackgroundInterstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis are common respiratory diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. The global burden and temporal trends of ILD and sarcoidosis are rarely explored.MethodsUsing the classification ‘ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis’ from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 dataset, we described the age-standardised rates of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and their average annual percentage change from 1990 to 2019 by sex, Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and region.ResultsIn 2019, the global incidence and mortality of ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis were 24.2 million and 169 833 cases, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, deaths and DALYs due to ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased by 118.6%, 166.63% and 122.87% respectively. The global incidence of ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis was higher in men and was mainly concentrated among persons aged 70‒79 of both sexes. Significant regional differences could be seen in the disease burden of ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis: since 2006, high-SDI regions had higher age-standardised incidence rates but lower age-standardised death rates compared with the low-SDI regions.ConclusionsOur study suggests the incidence, mortality and DALYs from ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis are increasing globally. To reduce the ongoing burden of this condition, early diagnosis and treatment are vital, and more targeted and specific strategies should be established in high-burden regions. Differences in incidence and mortality across regions may reflect the influence of genetic, environmental, diagnostic, pharmacotherapeutic, and health system factors.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 1688-1693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Vervoort ◽  
Marcelo Cardarelli

AbstractBackground:CHDs are one of the most frequent congenital malformations, affecting one in hundred live births. In total, 70% will require treatment in the first year of life, but over 90% of cases in low- and middle-income countries receive no treatment or suboptimal treatment. As a result, CHDs are responsible for 66% of preventable deaths due to congenital malformations in low- and middle-income countries. This study examines the unmet need of congenital cardiac care around the world based on the global burden of disease.Materials and methods:CHD morbidity and mortality data for 2006, 2011, and 2016 were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease Results Tool and analysed longitudinally to assess trends in excess morbidity and mortality.Results:Between 2006 and 2016, a 20.7% reduction in excess disability-adjusted life years and 20.6% reduction in excess deaths due to CHDs were observed for children under 15. In 2016, excess global morbidity and mortality due to CHDs remained high with 14,788,418.7 disability-adjusted life years and 171,761.8 paediatric deaths, respectively. In total, 90.2% of disability-adjusted life years and 91.2% of deaths were considered excess.Conclusion:This study illustrates the unmet need of congenital cardiac care around the world. Progress has been made to reduce morbidity and mortality due to CHDs but remains high and largely treatable around the world. Limited academic attention for global paediatric cardiac care magnifies the lack of progress in this area.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Li ◽  
Yujiao Deng ◽  
Linghui Zhou ◽  
Tian Tian ◽  
Si Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Statistical data on the incidence, mortality, and burden of breast cancer and the relevant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. We aimed to estimate breast cancer incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, gender, age group, and social-demographic status between 1990 and 2017. Methods We extracted breast cancer data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 through 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Data about the number of breast cancer incident cases, deaths, DALYs, and the age-standardized rates were collected. We also estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. Results In 2017, the global incidence of breast cancer increased to 1,960,681 cases. The high social-development index (SDI) quintile included the highest number of breast cancer death cases. Between 2007 and 2017, the ASDR of breast cancer declined globally, especially in high SDI and high middle SDI countries. The related DALYs were 17,708,600 in 2017 with high middle SDI quintile as the highest contributor. Of the deaths and DALYs, alcohol use was the greatest contributor in most GBD regions and other contributors included high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose. Conclusion The increasing global breast cancer burden is mainly observed in lower SDI countries; in higher SDI countries, the breast cancer burden tends to be relieving. Therefore, steps against attributable risk factors should be taken to reduce breast cancer burden in lower SDI countries.


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