scholarly journals The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 495
Author(s):  
Oussama Abi Younes ◽  
Sumru Altug
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Explicit Recognition

The coronavirus crisis that started in December 2019 was declared a pandemic by March 2020 and had devastating global consequences. The spread of the virus led to the implementation of different preventive measures prior to the availability of effective vaccines. While many governments implemented lockdowns to counter the pandemic, others did not let the virus halt economic activity. In this paper, we use a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive framework to study the effects of the pandemic on prices, unemployment rates, and interest rates in nine countries that took distinctive approaches in tackling the pandemic, where we introduce lockdowns as shocks to unemployment. Based on impulse response functions, we find that in most countries the unemployment rate rose, interest rates fell or turned negative, and prices fell initially following the implementation of the lockdown measures. However, the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to counteract the effects of the pandemic reversed some of the effects on the variables, suggesting that models with explicit recognition of such effects should be developed.

scholarly journals Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Claveria
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Opposite Effect ◽  
The Other ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The One ◽  
Geometric Discrepancy

AbstractThis paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in agents’ perception of uncertainty. The study focuses on the comparison between manufacturers’ and consumers’ perception of economic uncertainty, gauged by a geometric discrepancy indicator to quantify the proportion of disagreement in eleven European countries and the Euro Area. A vector autoregressive framework is used to estimate the impulse response functions to innovations in disagreement, both for manufacturers and consumers. The effect on economic activity of shocks to the perception of uncertainty is found to differ markedly between both types of agents. On the one hand, shocks to consumer discrepancy tend to be of greater magnitude and duration than those to manufacturer discrepancy. On the other hand, innovations in disagreement between the two collectives have an opposite effect on economic activity: shocks to manufacturer discrepancy lead to a decrease in economic activity, as opposed to shocks to consumer discrepancy. This finding is of particular relevance to researchers when using cross-sectional dispersion of survey-based expectations for approximating and assessing economic uncertainty, since the effect on economic growth of shocks to disagreement may be dependent on the type of agent and the way in which expectations have been elicited.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY: A SVAR APPROACH

Ekonomika ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım ◽  
Ahmet Eren Yıldırım
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Basic Hypothesis

The aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between consumption, investment and unemployment in Turkey using structural VAR (SVAR) models. The four different SVAR models are estimated by using quarterly observations of dynamic and contemporaneous relations for the mentioned macroeconomic variables, covering the 2005-2016 period for the Turkish economy. Four different unemployment rates are used in the study to represent the unemployment rate in the Turkish economy, which are overall, young (15-24 age), male and female unemployment rates. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition results obtained from the study show that consumption shocks have a significant impact on both the unemployment rate and the investments, in support of the basic hypothesis that is argued in the study. Investment shocks also have a similar effect on unemployment rates and positive investment shocks have reduced unemployment rates. Moreover, another result obtained in all four models suggests that a shock in consumption increases investment through the accelerator effect.

scholarly journals Yield curve dynamics with macroeconomic factors in Iberian economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Isabel Maldonado ◽  
Carlos Pinho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Future Evolution

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the bidirectional relation between the term structure of interest rates components and macroeconomic factors. Using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions we find evidence of a bidirectional relation between yield curve factors and the macroeconomic factors, with increased relevance of yield factors over it with increased forecasting horizons. The study was conduct for the two Iberian countries using information of public debt interest rates of Spain and Portugal and macroeconomic factors extracted from a set of macroeconomic variables, including indicators of activity, prices and confidence. Results show that the inclusion of confidence and macroeconomic factors in the analysis of the relationship between macroeconomics and interest rate structure is extremely relevant. The results obtained allow us to conclude that there is a strong impact of changes in macroeconomic factors on the term structure of interest rates, as well as a significant impact factors of the term structure in the future evolution of macroeconomic factors.

Results and Discussion 2

2014 ◽  
pp. 180-225
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The empirical analysis of this chapter provides insights into the functioning of the economies of three selected countries. Later in the chapter, the dynamic responses of the model to shocks in indicators of financial development are investigated. To obtain credible impulse response analysis, economic theory is used to set the required identifying restrictions instead of using an “unrestricted” vector autoregressive model. The structural form of the model then is summarised in the chapter by the variance decomposition and impulse response functions. The general results from impulse response functions advocate the theory of financial intermediation arguing that the development of the financial market helps to promote economic growth. Furthermore, the results of variance decomposition shows that different measures of financial development influence the variation of growth variables, particularly investment, savings, and productivity growth.

A Note on Autoregressive Modeling

1994 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 884-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.S. Poskitt
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Complete Analysis ◽  
Stationary Processes ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Autoregressive Modeling ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Main Emphasis ◽  
Integrated Time Series

This paper addresses the problem of estimating vector autoregressive models. An approach to handling nonstationary (integrated) time series is briefly discussed, but the main emphasis is upon the estimation of autoregressive approximations to stationary processes. Three alternative estimators are considered–the Yule-Walker, least-squares, and Burg-type estimates–and a complete analysis of their asymptotic properties in the stationary case is given. The results obtained, when placed together with those found elsewhere in the literature, lead to the direct recommendation that the less familiar Burg-type estimator should be used in practice when modeling stationary series. This is particularly so when the underlying objective of the analysis is to investigate the interrelationships between variables of interest via impulse response functions and dynamic multipliers.

scholarly journals The Primary Sectors of the Economy and the Dutch Disease in Nigeria

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. O. Olusi ◽  
M. A. Olagunju
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
International Financial Statistics ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Not Given ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
The Government

This study examines whether the Dutch Disease—a resource boom leading to the decline of the erstwhile tradable sector—is present in Nigeria in the light of the rejection of the Dutch Disease thesis in other studies on Nigeria. Quarterly data for our variables of interest were predominantly sourced from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF. The data are analysed through the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling consisting of impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses. Our results show that the Dutch Disease was diagnosed, albeit, as a delayed occurrence. This suggests that the government should lay more emphasis on the agricultural sector hitherto not given deserved attention.

Estimating Impulse-Response Functions for Macroeconomic Models using Directional Quantiles

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Montes-Rojas
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Conditional Effects ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Multivariate Quantile

Abstract A multivariate vector autoregressive model is used to construct the distribution of the impulse-response functions of macroeconomics shocks. In particular, the paper studies the distribution of the short-, medium-, and long-term effects after a shock. Structural and reduced form quantile vector autoregressive models are developed where heterogeneity in conditional effects can be evaluated through multivariate quantile processes. The distribution of the responses can then be obtained by using uniformly distributed random vectors. An empirical example of exchange rate pass-through in Argentina is presented.

Study of Short-Run Grain Movements on the Inland Waterway System

2005 ◽  
Vol 1909 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Thoma ◽  
Wesley W. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Planning Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions

Time series techniques—particularly impulse–response functions and variance decompositions—are used to characterize the short-run relationships between 17 variables in a vector autoregressive model designed to trace the short-run interconnections among variables affecting lockages on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. The model contains five categories of variables: lockages, barge rates, grain bids, rail rates, and rail deliveries. Variance decompositions are constructed that identify barge rates as the most important variable affecting lockages at both short and long horizons. Barge rates are, in turn, explained largely by lockages and rail rates, indicating two-way feedback or bidirectional causality between lockages and barge rates. Impulse–response functions are also examined. The variance decompositions indicate that barge rates are important in explaining lockages, and the impulse–response functions show how lockages and other variables respond to such shocks. In general, there is a substitution away from barge transportation and toward rail transportation when barge rates increase. The results are useful for illuminating the causal relationships among variables in the model and for understanding behavioral relationships present in the data and can be used to guide short- and long-run planning models. For example, many planning models assume that barge traffic does not respond significantly to changes in barge rates; however, results obtained here imply that barge traffic and rail deliveries do respond to such changes. This potentially important implication illustrates the usefulness of the time series techniques used.

Informal financial transactions and monetary policy in low-income countries: Interpolated informal credit and interest rates in Malawi

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Financial Transactions ◽  
The Impact

Background: Official monetary data usually exclude informal financial transactions although the informal financial sector (IFS) forms a large part of the financial sector in low-income countries. Aim and setting: Excluding informal financial transactions in official monetary data, however, underestimates the volume of financial transactions and incorrectly presents the cost of credit, bringing into question the accuracy of expected effects of monetary policy on economic activity. Methods: Using IFS data for Malawi constructed from two survey data sets, indigenous knowledge and elements of Friedman’s data interpolation technique, this study employs innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model to compare monetary policy outcomes when IFS data are taken into account and when they are not. Results: The study finds evidence that in certain instances, the formal and informal financial sectors complement each other. For example, it is observed that the rate of inflation as well as output increase following a rise in either formal financial sector (FFS) or IFS lending. Further investigation reveals that in other cases, the FFS and IFS work in conflict with each other. Demonstrating this point, the study finds that a rise in FFS interest rates is followed by a decline in FFS lending while IFS lending does not respond significantly and the response of FFS and IFS loans combined is insignificant. When IFS interest rates are raised, total loans decline significantly. Conclusion: The study, therefore, concludes that exclusion of IFS transactions from official monetary data has the potential to frustrate monetary policy through wrong inferences on the impact of monetary policy on economic activity.

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