scholarly journals Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyu Jiang ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Hirokazu Tatano ◽  
Lijiao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Ise Bay ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Consistent Assessment

Understanding storm surge inundation risk is essential for developing countermeasures and adaptation strategies for tackling climate change. Consistent assessment of storm surge inundation risk that links probability of hazard occurrence to distribution of economic consequence are scarce due to the lack of historical data and uncertainty of climate change, especially at local scales. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to construct exceedance probability (EP) curves for representing storm surge risk and identifying the economic impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Ise Bay, Japan. The region-specific exceedance probability curves show that risk could be different among different districts. The industry-specific exceedance probability curves show that manufacturing, transport and postal activities, electricity, gas, heat supply and water, and wholesale and retail trade are the most affected sectors in terms of property damage. Services also need to be of concern in terms of business interruption loss. Exceedance probability curves provide complete risk information and our simulation-based approach can contribute to a better understanding of storm surge risk, improve the quantitative assessment of the climate change-driven impacts on coastal areas, and identify vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in detail.

Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 764 ◽  
pp. 144439
Author(s):  
Shih-Chun Hsiao ◽  
Wen-Son Chiang ◽  
Jiun-Huei Jang ◽  
Han-Lun Wu ◽  
Wei-Shiun Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Compound Effect

Coastal risk assessments due to hybrid disasters in Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tae-Soon Kang ◽  
Hyeong-Min Oh ◽  
Soon-Mi Hwang ◽  
Ho-Kyun Kim ◽  
Kwang-Young Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Blue Color ◽  
Wave Overtopping ◽  
Coastal Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Risk

<p>Korean coasts are exposed to high risks such as storm surge, storm-induced high waves and wave overtopping. Also, localized heavy rainfall events have occurred frequently due to climate change, too. Especially, since coastal urban areas depend heavily on pump and pipe systems, extreme rainfalls that exceed the design capacity of drainage facility result in increasing inland flood damage. Nevertheless, the population in Korea is concentrated in the coastal areas and the value and density of coastal utilization are increasing. In this study, the risk of hybrid disasters in the coastal areas was assessed for safe utilization and value enhancement of coastal areas. The framework of the coastal risk assessment has been adopted from the concept of climate change vulnerability of the IPCC(2001). Coastal Risk Index(CRI) in this study was defined as a function of Exposure and Sensitivity exclude Adaptive Capacity using GIS-based DBs. Indicators of Exposure consisted of a storm surge, storm-induced high waves, wave overtopping and rainfalls. Indicators of Sensitivity consisted of human(population density), property(buildings and roads), and geography(inundation area). All these indicators were gathered from government agencies, numerical model experiments(ADCIRC, unSWAN, FLOW3D and XP-SWMM model), and field surveys(Drone & Lidar survey). And then spatial analysis was performed by using a GIS program after passing the quality control and analyzed data were standardized and classified 4 grades; Attention(blue color), Caution(yellow color), Warning(orange color) and Danger(red color). This frame of risk assessment was first applied to Marine City, Haeundae in Busan, Korea which was heavily damaged by the typhoon CHABA in 2018. According to the assessment results, it was confirmed that the results were in good agreement with the observation data and damage range. At present, the study area of risk assessment is expanding to other areas. The results of coastal risk assessment are used as reference indicators to identify and prevent the cause of coastal disasters, establish countermeasures, determine the development or management of coastal areas based on GIS, thus will contribute to effective and safe coastal management.</p>

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF EMULATORS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL-SCALE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. I_73-I_80
Author(s):  
Jun’ya TAKAKURA ◽  
Shinichiro FUJIMORI ◽  
Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI ◽  
Qian ZHOU ◽  
Naota HANASAKI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

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