scholarly journals Compounded Heat and Fire Risk for Future U.S. Populations

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brice B. Hanberry
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
High Density ◽  
Residential Density ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Extreme Fire

Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme events, resulting in social and economic challenges. I examined recent past (1971–2000), current and near future (2010–2039), and future (2040–2069) fire and heat hazard combined with population growth by different regions and residential densities (i.e., exurban low and high densities, suburban, and urban low and high densities). Regional values for extreme fire weather days varied greatly. Temperature and number of extreme fire weather days increased over time for all residential density categories, with the greatest increases in the exurban low-density category. The urban high-density category was about 0.8 to 1 °C cooler than the urban low-density category. The areas of the urban and suburban density categories increased relative to the exurban low-density category. Holding climate change constant at 1970–2000 resulted in a temperature increase of 0.4 to 0.8 °C by 2060, indicating future population increases in warmer areas. Overall, U.S. residents will experience greater exposure to fire hazard and heat over time due to climate change, and compound risk emerges because fire weather and heat are coupled and have effects across sectors. Movement to urban centers will help offset exposure to fire but not heat, because urban areas are heat islands; however, urban high-density areas had lower base temperatures, likely due to city locations along coastlines. This analysis provides a timely look at potential trends in fire and heat risk by residential density classes due to the expansion and migration of US populations.

scholarly journals A Global View of Observed Changes in Fire Weather Extremes: Uncertainties and Attribution To Climate Change.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongwei Liu ◽  
Jonathan M. Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Matthew Blackett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Global View ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Extreme Fire ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract In many parts of the world, wildfires have become more frequent and intense in recent decades, raising concerns about the extent to which climate change contributes to the nature of extreme fire weather occurrences. However, studies seeking to attribute fire weather extremes to climate change are hitherto relatively rare and show large disparities depending on the employed methodology. Here, an empirical-statistical method is implemented as part of a global probabilistic framework to attribute recent changes in the likelihood and magnitude of extreme fire weather. The results show that the likelihood of climate-related fire risk has increased by at least a factor of four in approximately 40% of the world’s fire-prone regions as a result of rising global temperature. In addition, a set of recent fire weather events, occurring during a recent 5-year period (2014-2018) and identified as exceptional due to the extent to which they exceed previous maxima, are, in most cases, associated with an increase likelihood resulting from rising global temperature. The study’s conclusions highlight important uncertainties and sensitivities associated with the selection of indices and metrics to represent extreme fire weather and their implications for the findings of attribution studies. Among the recommendations made for future efforts to attribute fire weather extremes is the consideration of multiple fire weather indicators and communication of their sensitivities.

scholarly journals Increased trends in global extreme fire weather driven predominantly by atmospheric humidity and temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽  
Sean Coogan ◽  
John Abatzoglou ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Global Analysis ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Humidity ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract Climate and weather greatly influence wildfire, and recent increases in wildfire activity have been linked to climate change. However, the atmospheric drivers of observed changes have not been articulated globally. We present a global analysis of trends in extreme fire weather from 1979–2020. Significant increases in extreme (95th percentile) annual values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI95), Initial Spread Index (ISI95), and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD95) occurred over 26.0%, 26.1%, and 46.1% of the global burnable landmass, respectively. Significant trends corresponded to a 35.8%, 36.0%, and 21.4% increase in mean global FWI95, ISI95, and VPD95, respectively. Relative humidity and temperature were identified as the drivers of significant trends in FWI95 and ISI95 in most regions, largely where temperature trends outpaced dew point trends. We identified relatively few regions in which wind speed or precipitation were drivers. These findings have wide-ranging implications for understanding fire risk in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Increasing frequency of extreme fire weather in Canada with climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Dan K. Thompson ◽  
Ginny A. Marshall ◽  
Cordy Tymstra ◽  
Richard Carr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Extreme Fire

Variability and drivers of extreme fire weather in fire-prone areas of south-eastern Australia

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Harris ◽  
Graham Mills ◽  
Timothy Brown
Keyword(s):  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Extreme Fire ◽  
South Eastern Australia

Most of the life and property losses due to bushfires in south-eastern Australia occur under extreme fire weather conditions – strong winds, high temperatures, low relative humidity (RH) and extended drought. However, what constitutes extreme, and the values of the weather ingredients and their variability, differs regionally. Using a gridded dataset to identify the highest 10 fire weather days from 1972 to 2012, as defined by McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), for 24 sites across Victoria and nearby, we analyse the extent and variability of these highest 10 FFDI days, and of the contributing temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction and drought indices. We document the occurrence of these events by time of day, month of occurrence and inter-annual variability. We find there is considerable variability among regions in the highest FFDI days and also the contributing weather and drought parameters, with some regional groupings apparent. Many major fire events occurred on these highest 10 fire weather days; however there are also days in which extreme fire weather occurred yet no known major fires are recorded. The results from this study will be an additional valuable resource to fire agencies in fire risk planning by basing fire management decisions on site-specific extreme fire weather conditions.

scholarly journals Behavior and Preparedness to Fire Hazard in High Density Settlements in Bandung

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saut Sagala ◽  
Ramanditya Wimbardana ◽  
Ferdinand Patrick Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
High Density ◽  
Fire Hazards ◽  
Fire Disaster ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Very High

Fire is one of the hazards that may affect urban areas with high density settlements. Thus, research on fire mitigation is important to be conducted. This paper examines the behavior and preparedness of occupants in high density settlements towards fire risks in urban area. The case study is located at Kelurahan Sukahaji, Kecamatan Babakan Ciparay, Bandung that has very high density settlement as well as prone to fire hazards. This study assess 232 respondents in the study areas on information related to demography, understanding about fire, behavior and preparedness. The respondents understanding on the types of fire sources are still low. Similarly, the behavior related to the activites using fire are still dangerous because some activities are conducted with other activities which make people less aware of the fire hazards. Nevertheless, their knowledge on how to extinguish fires are quite good. This paper recommends more trainings on knowledge of fire source and behavior to be conducted to occupants living in high density settlements in order to reduce fire disaster risk.

scholarly journals Vegetation Phenology Influenced by Rapid Urbanization of The Yangtze Delta Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyong Ding ◽  
Luming Xu ◽  
Andrew J. Elmore ◽  
Yuli Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Land Surface Temperatures ◽  
Over Time

Impacts of urbanization and climate change on ecosystems are widely studied, but these drivers of change are often difficult to isolate from each other and interactions are complicated. Ecosystem responses to each of these drivers are perhaps most clearly seen in phenology changes due to global climate change (warming climate) and urbanization (heat island effect). The phenology of vegetation can influence many important ecological processes, including primary production, evapotranspiration, and plant fitness. Therefore, evaluating the interacting effects of urbanization and climate change on vegetation phenology has the potential to provide information about the long-term impact of global change. Using remotely sensed time series of vegetation on the Yangtze River Delta in China, this study evaluated the impacts of rapid urbanization and climate change on vegetation phenology along an urban to rural gradient over time. Phenology markers were extracted annually from an 18-year time series by fitting the asymmetric Gaussian function model. Thermal remote sensing acquired at daytime and nighttime was used to explore the relationship between land surface temperature and vegetation phenology. On average, the spring phenology marker was 9.6 days earlier and the autumn marker was 6.63 days later in urban areas compared with rural areas. The spring phenology of urban areas advanced and the autumn phenology delayed over time. Across space and time, warmer spring daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures were related to earlier spring, while autumn daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures were related to later autumn phenology. These results suggest that urbanization, through surface warming, compounds the effect of climate change on vegetation phenology.

The meteorological conditions associated with extreme fire risk in Italy and Greece: relevance to climate model studies

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 155 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Good ◽  
M. Moriondo ◽  
C. Giannakopoulos ◽  
M. Bindi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Short Timescale ◽  
Extreme Fire

The meteorological conditions associated with elevated and extreme long- and short-timescale forest fire risk are investigated by validating and diagnosing the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) in the context of Tuscany in Italy, and Thessaloniki, Athens and Heraklion in Greece. The aim is to provide information to assist diagnosing experiments that use output from climate models to calculate FWI values. Links are made from fire risk to the widely used FWI, and then to the underlying meteorology, complementing other more complex fire risk model studies. First, the information about Mediterranean fire risk provided by the FWI is assessed by comparing the observed number of fires per day with FWI values based on the locally observed meteorology. This shows that the FWI provides some relatively consistent information for different locations, and suggests useful FWI thresholds indicating elevated and extreme fire risk. Then, the FWI system is split according to contributions from long- and short-timescale components, in a different way than usually adopted in the literature. Using the FWI thresholds suggested above, the long- and short-timescale meteorological conditions causing elevated and extreme FWI values are diagnosed. The results may help studies that investigate what aspects of projected climate change drive changes in fire weather risk, compare fire risk calculations from different climate models, or assess how climate models can be improved to provide better fire risk projections.

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