scholarly journals U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamidreza Zoraghein ◽  
Brian C. O’Neill
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
State Level ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Development Patterns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Aggregate Population ◽  
Population Urbanization

Spatial population distribution is an important determinant of both drivers of regional environmental change and exposure and vulnerability to it. Spatial projections of population must account for changes in aggregate population, urbanization, and spatial patterns of development, while accounting for uncertainty in each. While an increasing number of projections exist, those carried out at relatively high resolution that account for subnational heterogeneity and can be tailored to represent alternative scenarios of future development are rare. We draw on state-level population projections for the US and a gravity-style spatial downscaling model to design and produce new spatial projections for the U.S. at 1 km resolution consistent with a subset of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), scenarios of societal change widely used in integrated analyses of global and regional change. We find that the projections successfully capture intended alternative development patterns described in the SSPs, from sprawl to concentrated development and mixed outcomes. Our projected spatial patterns differ more strongly across scenarios than in existing projections, capturing a wider range of the relevant uncertainty introduced by the distinct scenarios. These projections provide an improved basis for integrated environmental analysis that considers uncertainty in demographic outcomes.

scholarly journals Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (5) ◽  
pp. 1344-1349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob J. McKee ◽  
Amy N. Rose ◽  
Edward A. Bright ◽  
Timmy Huynh ◽  
Budhendra L. Bhaduri
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Current Population ◽  
Locally Adaptive ◽  
The Us

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census’s projection methodology, with the US Census’s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4560
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abbas ◽  
Thomas B. Morland ◽  
Eric S. Hall ◽  
Yasser EL-Manzalawy
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search

We utilize functional data analysis techniques to investigate patterns of COVID-19 positivity and mortality in the US and their associations with Google search trends for COVID-19-related symptoms. Specifically, we represent state-level time series data for COVID-19 and Google search trends for symptoms as smoothed functional curves. Given these functional data, we explore the modes of variation in the data using functional principal component analysis (FPCA). We also apply functional clustering analysis to identify patterns of COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories across the US. Moreover, we quantify the associations between Google COVID-19 search trends for symptoms and COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories using dynamic correlation. Finally, we examine the dynamics of correlations for the top nine Google search trends of symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories. Our results reveal and characterize distinct patterns for COVID-19 spread and mortality across the US. The dynamics of these correlations suggest the feasibility of using Google queries to forecast COVID-19 cases and mortality for up to three weeks in advance. Our results and analysis framework set the stage for the development of predictive models for forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths using historical data and Google search trends for nine symptoms associated with both outcomes.

scholarly journals Voting Rights for Non-Citizens: The European Multilevel and the US Federal Constitutional Systems Compared

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Fabbrini
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
The State ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Comparative Methodology ◽  
Federal Constitutional ◽  
Regulatory Models

Voting rights – Citizens and aliens – European multilevel architecture – US federal system – Comparative methodology – Different regulatory models for non-citizens suffrage at the state level in Europe – Impact of supranational law – Challenges and tensions – Analogous dynamics in the US constitutional experience – Recent European legal and jurisprudential developments in comparative perspective – What future prospects for citizenship and democracy in Europe?

scholarly journals Fiscal Resilience Building

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (94) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmané Ouedraogo ◽  
Rene Tapsoba ◽  
Moussé Sow ◽  
Ali Compaoré
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Theil Index ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Revenue Diversification ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Revenue Volatility

Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.

scholarly journals Green Complexity, Economic Fitness, and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from U.S. State-Level Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
İbrahim Tuğrul Çınar ◽  
İlhan Korkmaz ◽  
Muhammet Yunus Şişman
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Green Production ◽  
Significant Negative Impact

Abstract Green production is one of the major debates as environmental degradation poses threats globally. The paper attempts to explore the relationship between green economy and environmental quality by using Economic Fitness approach. We develop a Green Complexity Index (GCI) dataset consists of 290 traded green-labeled products for the US States between 2002 and 2018. We analyze the environmental performance of green production using the GCI data at the sub-national level. Findings indicate that exporting more complex green products has insignificant effects on local (i.e., Sulfur dioxide, Particulate Matter 10) and global polluters such as Carbon dioxide (CO2), even accounting for per capita income. Yet, overall economic complexity has a significant negative impact on the emission levels implying that sophisticated production significantly improves environmental quality in the US. The insignificant impact of GCI on environmental degradation suggests that green product classifications should incorporate the production and end-use stages of goods to limit the adverse environmental effects of green-labeled products. The study, therefore, provides policy implications for green industrial policies.JEL codes: O18, Q56, R11

10. Race, ethnicities, and the criminal justice system

2021 ◽  
pp. 273-307
Author(s):  
Neena Samota
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Critical Race Theory ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Justice System ◽  
State Level ◽  
System P ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk

This chapter explores the broader context and history of race-related issues in the UK, considering why racial disparities persist in diverse societies like the US, Australia, Canada, and the UK, before narrowing the focus to race and ethnicity in the sphere of crime and criminal justice. The concepts of ‘race’ and ‘ethnicity’ have long played major roles in both classroom and broader societal discussions about crime, punishment, and justice, but they have arguably never been more present and visible than today. The chapter looks at the problems with the statistics available on race, ethnicity, and crime, noting the ways in which they may not tell the whole story, before considering the statistics themselves as the chapter discusses the relationships between ethnicity and victimisation and offending. It then moves on to how ethnic minorities experience the various elements of the criminal justice system and the disadvantages they often face, before outlining the attempts that have been made to address these disparities at a state level. Finally, the chapter discusses critical race theory, a key theory in modern criminological examinations of race and its relationship to crime and justice, which grew out of the US but has much broader value and relevance as a framework of analysis.

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