scholarly journals Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (5) ◽  
pp. 1344-1349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob J. McKee ◽  
Amy N. Rose ◽  
Edward A. Bright ◽  
Timmy Huynh ◽  
Budhendra L. Bhaduri
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Current Population ◽  
Locally Adaptive ◽  
The Us

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census’s projection methodology, with the US Census’s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

scholarly journals Spatially Explicit Population Projections: The case of Copenhagen, Denmark

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Marina Georgati ◽  
Carsten Keßler
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Managing Diversity ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Future Population

Abstract. Cities expand rapidly with international migration significantly contributing to urban growth and urban population change. However, cities miss out on a great opportunity of reclaiming valuable knowledge on future population distribution due to the lack of established tools and methodologies to project where it is more likely for people of specific socio-demographic groups to set up home. The present work suggests that spatially explicit projections can play a significant role as a tool for urban planning and for managing diversity creatively, especially when a combination of social, demographic and topographic data is utilized. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated capabilities to capture relationships among this plethora of urban features to estimate future population distribution. We present a flexible, ML-based methodology for high-resolution gridded population projections by demographic characteristics, and specifically by region of origin, for the capital region of Copenhagen, Denmark, by combining various socio-demographic and topographic input layers.

scholarly journals Modeling Spatiotemporal Population Changes by Integrating DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Light Data in Chongqing, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 284
Author(s):  
Dan Lu ◽  
Yahui Wang ◽  
Qingyuan Yang ◽  
Kangchuan Su ◽  
Haozhe Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Spatial Optimization ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Mean Relative Error ◽  
Nighttime Light

The sustained growth of non-farm wages has led to large-scale migration of rural population to cities in China, especially in mountainous areas. It is of great significance to study the spatial and temporal pattern of population migration mentioned above for guiding population spatial optimization and the effective supply of public services in the mountainous areas. Here, we determined the spatiotemporal evolution of population in the Chongqing municipality of China from 2000–2018 by employing multi-period spatial distribution data, including nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS). There was a power function relationship between the two datasets at the pixel scale, with a mean relative error of NTL integration of 8.19%, 4.78% less than achieved by a previous study at the provincial scale. The spatial simulations of population distribution achieved a mean relative error of 26.98%, improved the simulation accuracy for mountainous population by nearly 20% and confirmed the feasibility of this method in Chongqing. During the study period, the spatial distribution of Chongqing’s population has increased in the west and decreased in the east, while also increased in low-altitude areas and decreased in medium-high altitude areas. Population agglomeration was common in all of districts and counties and the population density of central urban areas and its surrounding areas significantly increased, while that of non-urban areas such as northeast Chongqing significantly decreased.

A Minimal Demographic History of Israel

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio DellaPergola
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Jewish People ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
History Of

This chapter surveys the demographic development of Israel/Palestine from antiquity through the present and looking toward the future. Territory and habitability is described regarding changing boundary definitions and internal divisions that have reflected shifting political rule. Population change is examined in the long term, noting the significant historical ups and downs in population size and socioeconomic development. The development of contemporary population in Israel and Palestine reflects large-scale international migration, including mass movement of Jewish and Arab refugees. Variable fertility levels and birth rates have also significantly affected the pace of population growth. Attention is paid to the more recent balance of Jews and Palestinians over the whole territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and an overview is presented of the distribution of world Jewish and Palestinian diasporas. Finally, population projections for the Jewish people, the state of Israel, and the whole territory of Israel/Palestine are presented.

Zero Undocumented Population Growth Is Here to Stay and Immigration Reform Would Preserve and Extend These Gains

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Warren
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
Legal Immigration

This report demonstrates that a broad and sustained reduction in undocumented immigration to the United States occurred in the 2008 to 2015 period. First, the report shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Great Recession had little, if any, role in the transformation to zero population growth. The population stopped growing because of increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11, a decade and a half of accelerating efforts to reduce illegal entries across the southern border, long-term increases in the numbers leaving the population each year, and improved economic and demographic conditions in Mexico. These conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It is time to recognize that the era of large-scale undocumented population growth has ended, and that there is a need to reform the US legal immigration system to preserve and extend these gains (Kerwin and Warren 2017, 319-21). Major findings of the report include:   The recession did not reduce arrivals or accelerate departures from the undocumented population; it essentially had very little impact on population change.[1]Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 for all major sending areas and for 13 of the top 15 countries of origin.[2]Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 in all of the top 15 states. In 10 of the 15 top states, growth changed to decline.Nearly twice as many left[3] the undocumented population from Mexico than arrived in the 2008 to 2015 period — 1.7 million left the population and 900,000 arrived.Almost twice as many overstays as persons who entered without inspection (EWIs) “arrived” (joined the undocumented population) from 2008 to 2015 — 2.0 million overstays compared to 1.1 million EWIs.Overstays leave the undocumented population at higher rates than EWIs: about 1.9 million, or 40 percent, of overstays that lived in the United States in 2008 had left the undocumented population by 2015, compared to 1.6 million, or 24 percent, of EWIs.The rate of overstays (65% of the newly undocumented), compared to EWIs, is more dramatic than the numbers indicate since estimates of the undocumented count Central American asylum seekers that cross the US southern border as EWIs.[1] The term “population” in this paper refers to the undocumented population, both persons who have stayed in the United States beyond the period of their temporary admission (“overstays”) and those who entered without inspection (EWIs).[2] In this paper, the terms “2000 to 2008 period” and “2008 to 2015 period” are not overlapping; they are used for ease of presentation. Estimates for the two time periods are based on data for 2000, 2008, and 2015. Technically, the earlier period is for 2000 through 2007 (eight years), and the latter period is for 2008 through 2014 (seven years).[3] Undocumented residents can leave the population in four ways: emigrate voluntarily, adjust to lawful status, be removed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), or (a relatively small number) die.

scholarly journals Zero Undocumented Population Growth is Here to Stay and Immigration Reform Would Preserve and Extend These Gains

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Warren
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Immigration Reform ◽  
The Us ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
Legal Immigration

This report demonstrates that a broad and sustained reduction in undocumented immigration to the United States occurred in the 2008 to 2015 period. First, the report shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Great Recession had little, if any, role in the transformation to zero population growth. The population stopped growing because of increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11, a decade and a half of accelerating efforts to reduce illegal entries across the southern border, long-term increases in the numbers leaving the population each year, and improved economic and demographic conditions in Mexico. These conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It is time to recognize that the era of large-scale undocumented population growth has ended, and that there is a need to reform the US legal immigration system to preserve and extend these gains (Kerwin and Warren 2017, 319–21). Major findings of the report include: • The recession did not reduce arrivals or accelerate departures from the undocumented population; it essentially had very little impact on population change.1 • Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 for all major sending areas and for 13 of the top 15 countries of origin.2 • Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 in all of the top 15 states. In 10 of the 15 top states, growth changed to decline. • Nearly twice as many left3 the undocumented population from Mexico than arrived in the 2008 to 2015 period — 1.7 million left the population and 900,000 arrived. • Almost twice as many overstays as persons who entered without inspection (EWIs) “arrived” (joined the undocumented population) from 2008 to 2015 — 2.0 million overstays compared to 1.1 million EWIs. • Overstays leave the undocumented population at higher rates than EWIs: about 1.9 million, or 40 percent, of overstays that lived in the United States in 2008 had left the undocumented population by 2015, compared to 1.6 million, or 24 percent, of EWIs. • The rate of overstays (65% of the newly undocumented), compared to EWIs, is more dramatic than the numbers indicate since estimates of the undocumented count Central American asylum seekers that cross the US southern border as EWIs.

scholarly journals Growing gap in population dynamics, closing the gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared

Geografie ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-62
Author(s):  
Jiřina Kocourková ◽  
Luděk Šídlo ◽  
Martin Novák ◽  
Luděk Sýkora
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

This paper investigates differences in population development in the European Union and the United States. The population projections recently published by the United Nations forecast expected a slowdown in growth and a shrinking of the EU population and a continued growth in the US. Therefore, the paper aims to find out which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics. The article first explores the role of population change and migration in total population growth. Then it investigates fertility and mortality patterns, focusing on demographic behaviour of ethnic/racial groups in the US and regional disparities in Europe. The paper documents that fertility differences primarily cause the different population dynamics in the EU and the US. This is reflected in the forecast convergence towards the same population size.

scholarly journals U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamidreza Zoraghein ◽  
Brian C. O’Neill
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
State Level ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Development Patterns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Aggregate Population ◽  
Population Urbanization

Spatial population distribution is an important determinant of both drivers of regional environmental change and exposure and vulnerability to it. Spatial projections of population must account for changes in aggregate population, urbanization, and spatial patterns of development, while accounting for uncertainty in each. While an increasing number of projections exist, those carried out at relatively high resolution that account for subnational heterogeneity and can be tailored to represent alternative scenarios of future development are rare. We draw on state-level population projections for the US and a gravity-style spatial downscaling model to design and produce new spatial projections for the U.S. at 1 km resolution consistent with a subset of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), scenarios of societal change widely used in integrated analyses of global and regional change. We find that the projections successfully capture intended alternative development patterns described in the SSPs, from sprawl to concentrated development and mixed outcomes. Our projected spatial patterns differ more strongly across scenarios than in existing projections, capturing a wider range of the relevant uncertainty introduced by the distinct scenarios. These projections provide an improved basis for integrated environmental analysis that considers uncertainty in demographic outcomes.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Kurtis Thome ◽  
Joseph Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Us

Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

scholarly journals Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7804
Author(s):  
Christoph Falter ◽  
Andreas Sizmann
Keyword(s):  
Hydrogen Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Solar Thermochemical

Hydrogen produced from renewable energy has the potential to decarbonize parts of the transport sector and many other industries. For a sustainable replacement of fossil energy carriers, both the environmental and economic performance of its production are important. Here, the solar thermochemical hydrogen pathway is characterized with a techno-economic and life-cycle analysis. Assuming a further increase of conversion efficiency and a reduction of investment costs, it is found that hydrogen can be produced in the United States of America at costs of 2.1–3.2 EUR/kg (2.4–3.6 USD/kg) at specific greenhouse gas emissions of 1.4 kg CO2-eq/kg. A geographical potential analysis shows that a maximum of 8.4 × 1011 kg per year can be produced, which corresponds to about twelve times the current global and about 80 times the current US hydrogen production. The best locations are found in the Southwest of the US, which have a high solar irradiation and short distances to the sea, which is beneficial for access to desalinated water. Unlike for petrochemical products, the transport of hydrogen could potentially present an obstacle in terms of cost and emissions under unfavorable circumstances. Given a large-scale deployment, low-cost transport seems, however, feasible.

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