scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3362
Author(s):  
Xinping Zhang ◽  
Yimeng Zhang ◽  
Yunchan Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Social Inequality ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Policy Targets

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, government debt, and income inequality by constructing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model. The choice of monetary policy targets is then analyzed to hedge the impact of the pandemic. We find that: (1) the aggregate demand and labor demand shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic posed serious challenges to the sustainable development of the economy and debt, and increased social inequality; (2) when the impact of the pandemic is mainly reflected in the recession in aggregate demand, monetary policy should pay more attention to the target of price stability; (3) when the impact of the pandemic is mainly reflected in a decline in labor demand, monetary policy should focus more on the target of economic growth; (4) when the pandemic has a significant impact on both aggregate demand and labor demand, a monetary policy which focuses more on the target of economic growth is conducive to minimizing welfare losses. Targeted policy implications, such as selecting monetary policy targets according to different manifestations of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and placing emphasis on monetary policy tools to stimulate consumption, alleviate unemployment, and alleviate social inequality, are suggested to improve the sustainability of the Chinese economy.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY CREATES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

Ekonomika ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 55-68
Author(s):  
Birutė Visokavičienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Methodological Position ◽  
Policy Targets ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

The study of monetary policy concentrates on the systematic analysis of the interaction between the major monetary policy targets and macroeconomic indicators as signals to policymakers about possible changes which may influence the macroeconomic stability. In this respect, the purpose of this article is to justify the arguments supporting the role and importance of monetary policy and its proximate targets for ensuring macroeconomic stability. The object of the study is the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic changes.The method is analysis of monetary theory, scientific literature and documents. Such a methodological position enables justification of the influence of the key targets of the monetary policy on the global economic processes related to inflation, finance stability and economic growth.

Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Baldini ◽  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Mai C. Dao ◽  
Rafael Portillo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The authors develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a banking sector to analyse the impact of the financial crisis in developing countries and the role of the monetary policy response, with an application to Zambia. The crisis is interpreted as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. Model simulations broadly match the path of the economy during this period. The model-based analysis reveals that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. The authors derive policy implications for central banks, and for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling of monetary policy, in low-income countries.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF LENDING TO NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 111-115
Author(s):  
Rogneda Vasilyeva ◽  
Oleg Turygin ◽  
Olga Ie ◽  
Maria Kozlova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

Acceleration of economic growth, especially in modern conditions, requires the use of stimulating measures of fiscal and monetary policy. Measures to stimulate economic growth should also maintain macroeconomic stability. Many emerging markets and developing economies are pursuing high interest rate policies to curb inflation, but this leads to a reduction in lending to non-financial corporations and to economic growth rates decline. The goal of the study is to show that pursuing high interest rates policy is insufficient. We tested several hypotheses: first, we assume that an increase in lending to non-financial corporations stimulates economic growth. Our second hypothesis, in contrast, suggests that increasing interest rates on loans dampen economic growth. Third, we assume that inflation has no significant effect on economic growth. Forth, we consider that lending to non-financial corporations does not spur inflation. We empirically assess the data for 13 countries related to emerging markets during 2001–2020. The results of the research confirmed all the hypotheses. The monetary policy of maintaining high interest rates used by many developing countries leads to low lending to non-financial corporations and reduced economic growth. We propose several policy implications aimed at stimulating the lending to non-financial corporations and scarce inflation.

scholarly journals Evolution of views on the role of central bank policy: conclusions for Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Bohdan DANYLYSHYN ◽  
Ivan BOHDAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

The effects of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in modification of the goals and instruments of central banks activities in the context of strengthening their responsibility for supporting aggregate demand, more effective financial intermediation, smooth functioning of financial markets and creating conditions for inclusive economic growth. The purpose of the article is to elaborate proposals for changing the priorities of monetary policy in an economy with emerging markets in the post-crisis economic recovery. The article criticizes the concept of money supply neutrality from the standpoint of its simplified interpretation of the impact of the interest rate on activities with different duration and complexity of the technological process, as well as its detachment from the principles of inclusive economic growth. The authors reveal the factors that reduce the effectiveness of the application of the monetary regime of inflation targeting in countries with emerging markets, which consist in the dominance of non-monetary inflation factors, high import dependence of the economy etc. Based on empirical data for 1990-2019, they prove that low inflation is not a sufficient and necessary prerequisite for achieving economic success by a country. Authors suggest that the share of components of the inflation basket in Ukraine with high non-monetary effects is 62%, which indicates the presence of high risks of failures of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms. They argue that under the Ukrainian conditions at the beginning of 2021 an increase in the central bank’s key rate will appear to be counterproductive: the access to critically needed borrowed resources will go down, economic agents will spend more of their savings, and the pace of economic recovery will slow down. The recommendations for improving the NBU policy have been devised; they consist in ensuring the flexibility of the monetary inflation targeting regime, introducing targeted refinancing instruments to increase the efficiency of the financial intermediation, developing effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, and implementing measures aimed at creating conditions for inclusive economic growth.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

Reducing the Risks of the Financial Sector to Ensure Sustainable Growth of the Russian Еconomy

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
T. I. Minina ◽  
V. V. Skalkin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s entry into the top five economies of the world depends, among other things, on the development of the financial sector, being a necessary condition for the economic growth of a developed macroeconomic and macro-financial system. The financial sector represents a system of relationships for the effective collection and distribution of economic resources, their deployment according to public demand, reducing the risk of overproduction and overheating of the economy.Therefore, the subject of the research is the financial sector of the Russian economy.The purpose of the research was to formulate an approach to alleviating the risks of increasing financial costs in the real sector of the economy by reducing the impact of endogenous risks expressed as financial asset “bubbles” using the experience of developed countries in the monetary policy.The paper analyzes a macroeconomic model applied to the financial sector. It is established that the economic growth is determined by the growth and, more important, the qualitative development of the financial sector, which leads to two phenomena: overproduction in the real sector and an increase in asset prices in the financial sector, with a debt load in both the real and financial sectors. This results in decreasing the interest rate of the mega-regulator to near-zero values. In this case, since the mechanisms of the conventional monetary policy do not work, the unconventional monetary policy is used when the mega-regulator buys out derivative financial instruments from systemically important institutions. As a conclusion, given deflationally low rates, it is proposed that the megaregulator should issue its own derivative financial instruments and place them in the financial market.

Theorizing About Post-Keynesian Economics in Australasa

2013 ◽  
pp. 411-435
Author(s):  
Paul Dalziel ◽  
J. W. Nevile
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
World War ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

There was much in common in the development of post-Keynesian economics in Australia and New Zealand, but there were also many differences. Both countries shared a common heritage in higher education. In the first twenty-five years after World War II, both countries adopted broadly Keynesian policies and experienced very low levels of unemployment. Increasingly over these years more theorizing about macroeconomic policy had what now would be called a post-Keynesian content, but this label was not used till after the event. In both countries, apart from one important factor, the experience of actual monetary policy and theorizing about it were similar. Keynesian ideas were more rapidly adopted in Australia than in many other countries. Not surprisingly for a couple of decades after 1936, analysis of policy and its application was Keynesian rather than post-Keynesian, with fiscal policy playing the major role. The conduct of both monetary and fiscal policy depends on the theory of inflation. This chapter examines post-Keynesian economics in Australasia, focusing on aggregate demand, economic growth, and income distribution policy.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

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