scholarly journals Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10045
Author(s):  
Maran Marimuthu ◽  
Hanana Khan ◽  
Romana Bangash
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has faced a persistent fiscal deficit for the last three decades. In the vast literature, a question is still arising: is ASEAN’s fiscal deficit alarming? This study explores the fiscal deficit with different perspectives to provide guidelines for policymakers to answer this question. For this purpose, we offer fiscal causal hypotheses estimates, including the contribution of Government expenditures (GEs) and Government revenues (GRs) towards sustainable economic growth; we then evaluated two additional deficit hypotheses, the impact of fiscal deficit and deficit financing on inflation. This empirical analysis covered annual financial data for the years 1990 to 2019 of ten member countries of ASEAN by applying panel econometric techniques, which include unit root Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS) tests; the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for cointegration; and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin (DH) test for causality. The findings revealed that government expenditures contribute more towards sustainable economic growth while government revenues are inversely related to growth in the long run. The DH causality test supported the fiscal synchronization hypothesis and current account targeting hypothesis in ASEAN. The interest rate is found as a moderator between fiscal and current account deficits. Furthermore, the findings showed that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN could generate inflation while relying on outstanding debt. Overall, our findings concluded that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN is alarming based on the behavior of government revenues, interest rate dynamics, political stability, and outstanding debt in deficit financing.

scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals Growing discoordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svitlana Mishchenko ◽  
Svitlana Naumenkova ◽  
Volodymyr Mishchenko ◽  
Viktor Ivanov ◽  
Roman Lysenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

The slowdown in economic development caused by the reduction in the efficiency of the functioning of state institutions determined the focus of the governments of most countries of the world on achieving sustainable economic growth, as well as ensuring macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. A major issue that is dealt with is the weakening of the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine. It can be assumed that one of the reasons hindering economic growth is growing discoordination between monetary and fiscal policies. The purpose of this study is to assess the nature of monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine in 2000–2017 and justify the need for coordination between them to stimulate economic growth. For the quantitative assessment of the influence of monetary and fiscal factors on GDP, the models of autoregression with distributed lags – ARDL are used. The analysis makes it possible to distinguish and characterize three stages of combining the rigid and stimulating monetary and fiscal policy in Ukraine in 2000–2017. The article examines the influence of the dynamics of the monetary aggregate M3, the inflation rate and the weighted average base interest rate on the growth rates of real GDP in Ukraine, the impact of using the “monetary clamp” effect on the increase in the NBU’s interest rate, and the direct effect of monetary factors on the fiscal policy. The authors conclude that the inconsistency of monetary and fiscal policies is one of the reasons for the high volatility of macroeconomic indicators. The article substantiates the conclusion that it is necessary to overcome the increasing antagonism between monetary and fiscal policies in Ukraine and to strengthen their coordination.

scholarly journals ISU STRATEGI PEMBIAYAAN DEFISIT ANGGARAN DI INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 260
Author(s):  
Daryono Soebagiyo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Financing Strategy ◽  
The Impact

The issue of budget deficit financing strategy has been broad enough to gain attention in macroeconomic policy. This study is focused on Analysis of Budget Deficit Financing in Indonesia. How is the deficit financing management implemented such as what are the best sources and its contribution to the Indonesian economy. The study explains that the model used to estimate the impact indicators is capable to manage budget deficit financing, in which the variable domestic financing and external debt encourages the economic growth. Another research goal is to identify the amount of deficit financing sources and their effects on the economy. Under normal conditions in simulation 2. by increasing foreign financing about 15 percent, economic growth will increase about 1.40 percent, and inflation will fall about 0.11. In the crisis where the interest rate increased 15 percent and domestic financing increased with the same rate, economic growth will fall 0.08 and inflation 0.01 percent.

scholarly journals The Role of Taxes in Economic Development of Kosovo

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Artan Nimani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

To achieve prosperity and political stability, national governments aimed at achieving economic equilibrium. The government uses various instruments to stimulate economic growth, reduce unemployment and to achieve macroeconomic objectives. In the context of slow economic growth in recent years and fiscal pressures, Kosovo faces the complex challenge of economic development. Unemployment remains at a high level. Demand for labor is still very low and create an environment that will favor the formation of stable work places is a challenging task that requires a multidimensional reforms in the economy. This paper addresses the impact of fiscal policy on reducing unemployment, increasing investment and consumption to generate sustainable economic growth.

scholarly journals The Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth - Case Study for Kosovo

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Dr.Sc. Myrvete Badivuku - Pantina ◽  
MSc. Jeton Zogjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Fair Competition ◽  
The Impact

This research paper will explain the impact and relationship between the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, Kosovo case. The used data in research are secondary data and cover a period of time between 2008 and 2013. By using STATA program for calculation and by various regression analyses (descriptive statistics, linear regression and correlation) relationships have been identified between involved variables in research, where economic growth is defined as dependent variable, whereas FDI, interest rate and real effective and exchange rate (REER) are defined as independent variables. The main results in this research paper indicate that FDI has a positive relation (0.011) but non-significant effect (T<2) on economic growth while the interest rate has a positive relation (0.076) and a significant effect (T>2) on economic growth in Kosovo. The real effective exchange rate has a negative (-0.347) and non-significant relation (T<2) with economic growth. The main activities of FDI in overall Kosovo's economy are: real estate, transport and telecommunication, financial and manufacture services, construction, etc. The main conclusion is that the Kosovo institutions should create a favorable environment, such as: political stability, enforcement of justice, reduction of trade barriers, Kosovo should also create appropriate policy for protection of foreign investors, investment security, fair competition and institutional support. This will impact the drastic improvement and increase of FDI. In 2013 Kosovo had an FDI percentage of 5% of GDP while in 2007 it was over 13% of Kosovo's GDP.

How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-284
Author(s):  
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty ◽  
Sidheswar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40

scholarly journals Financial Inclusion, Income Inequality and Sustainable Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1780
Author(s):  
Chima M. Menyelim ◽  
Abiola A. Babajide ◽  
Alexander E. Omankhanlen ◽  
Benjamin I. Ehikioya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Financial Access ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluates the relevance of inclusive financial access in moderating the effect of income inequality on economic growth in 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 1995 to 2017. The findings using the Generalised Method of Moments (sys-GMM) technique show that inclusive financial access contributes to reducing inequality in the short run, contrary to the Kuznets curve. The result reveals a negative effect of financial access on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. There is a positive net effect of inclusive financial access in moderating the impact of income inequality on economic growth. Given the need to achieve the Sustainable Development Targets in the sub-region, policymakers and other stakeholders of the economy must design policies and programmes that would enhance access to financial services as an essential mechanism to reduce income disparity and enhance sustainable economic growth.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 097508782098717
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Luqman Olanrewaju Afolabi ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Kafilah Lola Gold ◽  
Murtala Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
World Governance Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

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