scholarly journals Robust Spatiotemporal Estimation of PM Concentrations Using Boosting-Based Ensemble Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13782
Author(s):  
Soyoung Park ◽  
Sanghun Son ◽  
Jaegu Bae ◽  
Doi Lee ◽  
Jae-Jin Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Daily Pm10

Particulate matter (PM) as an air pollutant is harmful to the human body as well as to the ecosystem. It is crucial to understand the spatiotemporal PM distribution in order to effectively implement reduction methods. However, ground-based air quality monitoring sites are limited in providing reliable concentration values owing to their patchy distribution. Here, we aimed to predict daily PM10 concentrations using boosting algorithms such as gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boost (XGB), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM). The three models performed well in estimating the spatial contrasts and temporal variability in daily PM10 concentrations. In particular, the LightGBM model outperformed the GBM and XGM models, with an adjusted R2 of 0.84, a root mean squared error of 12.108 μg/m2, a mean absolute error of 8.543 μg/m2, and a mean absolute percentage error of 16%. Despite having high performance, the LightGBM model showed low spatial prediction accuracy near the southwest part of the study area. Additionally, temporal differences were found between the observed and predicted values at high concentrations. These outcomes indicate that such methods can provide intuitive and reliable PM10 concentration values for the management, prevention, and mitigation of air pollution. In the future, performance accuracy could be improved through consideration of different variables related to spatial and seasonal characteristics.

A comparative performance of machine learning algorithm to predict electric vehicles energy consumption: A path towards sustainability

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110449
Author(s):  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Toshiyuki Yamamoto ◽  
Rabia Emhamed Al Mamlook ◽  
Arshad Jamal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Energy Consumption Prediction ◽  
Transport Emissions

The rapid growth of transportation sector and related emissions are attracting the attention of policymakers to ensure environmental sustainability. Therefore, the deriving factors of transport emissions are extremely important to comprehend. The role of electric vehicles is imperative amid rising transport emissions. Electric vehicles pave the way towards a low-carbon economy and sustainable environment. Successful deployment of electric vehicles relies heavily on energy consumption models that can predict energy consumption efficiently and reliably. Improving electric vehicles’ energy consumption efficiency will significantly help to alleviate driver anxiety and provide an essential framework for operation, planning, and management of the charging infrastructure. To tackle the challenge of electric vehicles’ energy consumption prediction, this study aims to employ advanced machine learning models, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine to compare with traditional machine learning models, multiple linear regression, and artificial neural network. Electric vehicles energy consumption data in the analysis were collected in Aichi Prefecture, Japan. To evaluate the performance of the prediction models, three evaluation metrics were used; coefficient of determination ( R2), root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The prediction outcome exhibits that the extreme gradient boosting and light gradient boosting machine provided better and robust results compared to multiple linear regression and artificial neural network. The models based on extreme gradient boosting and light gradient boosting machine yielded higher values of R2, lower mean absolute error, and root mean square error values have proven to be more accurate. However, the results demonstrated that the light gradient boosting machine is outperformed the extreme gradient boosting model. A detailed feature important analysis was carried out to demonstrate the impact and relative influence of different input variables on electric vehicles energy consumption prediction. The results imply that an advanced machine learning model can enhance the prediction performance of electric vehicles energy consumption.

scholarly journals Short-Term Energy Forecasting Using Machine-Learning-Based Ensemble Voting Regression

Symmetry ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Pyae-Pyae Phyo ◽  
Yung-Cheol Byun ◽  
Namje Park
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Term Energy

Meeting the required amount of energy between supply and demand is indispensable for energy manufacturers. Accordingly, electric industries have paid attention to short-term energy forecasting to assist their management system. This paper firstly compares multiple machine learning (ML) regressors during the training process. Five best ML algorithms, such as extra trees regressor (ETR), random forest regressor (RFR), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and K neighbors regressor (KNN) are trained to build our proposed voting regressor (VR) model. Final predictions are performed using the proposed ensemble VR and compared with five selected ML benchmark models. Statistical autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is also compared with the proposed model to reveal results. For the experiments, usage energy and weather data are gathered from four regions of Jeju Island. Error measurements, including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) are computed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Our proposed model outperforms six baseline models in terms of the result comparison, giving a minimum MAPE of 0.845% on the whole test set. This improved performance shows that our approach is promising for symmetrical forecasting using time series energy data in the power system sector.

scholarly journals A Multi-Class Automatic Sleep Staging Method Based on Photoplethysmography Signals

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Xiangfa Zhao ◽  
Guobing Sun
Keyword(s):  
Time Domain ◽  
Single Channel ◽  
Kappa Statistic ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Sleep Staging ◽  
Challenging Problem ◽  
Sleep State ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
The Time Domain

Automatic sleep staging with only one channel is a challenging problem in sleep-related research. In this paper, a simple and efficient method named PPG-based multi-class automatic sleep staging (PMSS) is proposed using only a photoplethysmography (PPG) signal. Single-channel PPG data were obtained from four categories of subjects in the CAP sleep database. After the preprocessing of PPG data, feature extraction was performed from the time domain, frequency domain, and nonlinear domain, and a total of 21 features were extracted. Finally, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) classifier was used for multi-class sleep staging. The accuracy of the multi-class automatic sleep staging was over 70%, and the Cohen’s kappa statistic k was over 0.6. This also showed that the PMSS method can also be applied to stage the sleep state for patients with sleep disorders.

scholarly journals Experimental Analysis of GBM to Expand the Time Horizon of Irish Electricity Price Forecasts

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 7587
Author(s):  
Conor Lynch ◽  
Christian O’Leary ◽  
Preetham Govind Kolar Sundareshan ◽  
Yavuz Akin
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Avant Garde ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

In response to the inherent challenges of generating cost-effective electricity consumption schedules for dynamic systems, this paper espouses the use of GBM or Gradient Boosting Machine-based models for electricity price forecasting. These models are applied to data streams from the Irish electricity market and achieve favorable results, relative to the current state-of-the-art. Presently, electricity prices are published 10 h in advance of the trade day of interest. Using the forecasting methodology outlined in this paper, an estimation of these prices can be made available one day in advance of the official price publication, thus extending the time available to plan electricity utilization from the grid to be as cost effectively as possible. Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBM) models achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 9.93 for data from 30 September 2018 to 12 December 2019 which is an 11.4% improvement on the avant-garde. LGBM models achieve a MAE score 9.58 on more recent data: the full year of 2020.

Development of a Diabetes Melitus Detection and Prediction Model Using Light Gradient Boosting Machine and K-Nearest Neighbour

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. A Omodunbi
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Receiver Operating

Diabetes mellitus is a health disorder that occurs when the blood sugar level becomes extremely high due to body resistance in producing the required amount of insulin. The aliment happens to be among the major causes of death in Nigeria and the world at large. This study was carried out to detect diabetes mellitus by developing a hybrid model that comprises of two machine learning model namely Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). This research is aimed at developing a machine learning model for detecting the occurrence of diabetes in patients. The performance metrics employed in evaluating the finding for this study are Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve, Five-fold Cross-validation, precision, and accuracy score. The proposed system had an accuracy of 91% and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve was 93%. The experimental result shows that the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model is better than traditional machine learning

scholarly journals Multistep-Ahead Solar Radiation Forecasting Scheme Based on the Light Gradient Boosting Machine: A Case Study of Jeju Island

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinwoong Park ◽  
Jihoon Moon ◽  
Seungmin Jung ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Jeju Island ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Time Problem

Smart islands have focused on renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, to achieve energy self-sufficiency. Because solar photovoltaic (PV) power has the advantage of less noise and easier installation than wind power, it is more flexible in selecting a location for installation. A PV power system can be operated more efficiently by predicting the amount of global solar radiation for solar power generation. Thus far, most studies have addressed day-ahead probabilistic forecasting to predict global solar radiation. However, day-ahead probabilistic forecasting has limitations in responding quickly to sudden changes in the external environment. Although multistep-ahead (MSA) forecasting can be used for this purpose, traditional machine learning models are unsuitable because of the substantial training time. In this paper, we propose an accurate MSA global solar radiation forecasting model based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), which can handle the training-time problem and provide higher prediction performance compared to other boosting methods. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed model, we conducted a global solar radiation prediction for two regions on Jeju Island, the largest island in South Korea. The experiment results demonstrated that the proposed model can achieve better predictive performance than the tree-based ensemble and deep learning methods.

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