Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India

Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary between −4% and +40% as well as +10% and +59% in the near future (2040–2069) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, and between +20% and +70% (RCP 4.5) as well as +38% and +89% (RCP 8.5) in the far future (2070–2099). Even though surface air temperatures are increasing in future climate change projections, the findings suggest that an increase in the post-rainy season sorghum yields was due to an increase in the rainfall amounts up to 23% and an increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels by the end of the 21st century. The results suggest that the projected climate change during the post-rainy season over India is an opportunity for smallholders to capitalize on the increase in rainfall amounts and further increase sorghum yields with appropriate crop management strategies.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-13-00068.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 371-379 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Auwal F. Abdussalam ◽

Andrew J. Monaghan ◽

Daniel F. Steinhoff ◽

Vanja M. Dukic ◽

Mary H. Hayden ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Treatment Strategies ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Annual Incidence ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily populated northwest Nigeria with an annual incidence rate ranging from 18 to 200 per 100 000 people for 2000–11. Several studies have established that cases exhibit sensitivity to intra- and interannual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations of seven meteorological variables from an ensemble of 13 statistically downscaled global climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, with the numbers representing the globally averaged top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance (in W m−2) in 2100. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change have the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early (2020–35) and late (2060–75) twenty-first century, and for the seasonal onset of meningitis to begin about a month earlier on average by late century, in October rather than November. Annual incidence may increase by 47% ± 8%, 64% ± 9%, and 99% ± 12% for the RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in 2060–75 with respect to 1990–2005. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as it is assumed that current prevention and treatment strategies will remain similar in the future.

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Evaluation of General Circulation Models over the Upper Ouémé River Basin in the Republic of Benin

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology7010011 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

André Attogouinon ◽

Agnidé E. Lawin ◽

Jean-François Deliège

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Data Set

This study assessed the performance of eight general circulation models (GCMs) implemented in the upper Ouémé River basin in Benin Republic (West Africa) during the Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change. Historical rainfall simulations of the climate model of Rossby Regional Centre (RCA4) driven by eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GCMs over a 55-year period (1951 to 2005) are evaluated using the observational data set. Apart from daily rainfall, other rainfall parameters calculated from observed and simulated rainfall were compared. U-test and other statistical criteria (R2, MBE, MAE, RMSE and standard of standard deviations) were used. According to the results, the simulations correctly reproduce the interannual variability of precipitation in the upper Ouémé River basin. However, the models tend to produce drizzle. Especially, the overestimation of April, May and November rains not only explains the overestimation of seasonal and annual cumulative rainfall but also the early onset of the rainy season and its late withdrawal. However, we noted that this overestimation magnitude varies from one model to another. As for extreme rainfall indices, the models reproduced them poorly. The CanESM2, CNRM-CM5 and EC-EARTH models perform well for daily rainfall. A trade-off is formulated to select the common MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, NorESM1-M and CanESM2 models for different rainfall parameters for the reliable projection of rainfall in the area. However, the MPI-ESM-LR model is a valuable tool for studying future climate change.

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Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13179689 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (17) ◽

pp. 9689

Author(s):

Tewekel Melese Gemechu ◽

Hongling Zhao ◽

Shanshan Bao ◽

Cidan Yangzong ◽

Yingying Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.

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Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-13-135-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 135-147 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Shawn Corvec ◽

Christopher G. Fletcher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hadley Circulation ◽

Walker Circulation ◽

Tropical Indian Ocean ◽

Future Climate ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

Future Projections

Abstract. The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridional Hadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to the re-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3 Ma) is considered a very rough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here, climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be in future climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with future projections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradient of sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. The weakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections, largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropical mean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WC weakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes to the tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate are primarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients in tropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures.

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The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

Global Environmental Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.007 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

pp. 1073-1083 ◽

Cited By ~ 237

Author(s):

Philippe Roudier ◽

Benjamin Sultan ◽

Philippe Quirion ◽

Alexis Berg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Recent Literature ◽

Crop Yields ◽

West African ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-305-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 305-316 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Qianqian Zhou ◽

Guoyong Leng ◽

Maoyi Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Adaptation ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Northern China ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Urban Flood ◽

Drainage Systems ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Change Mitigation

Abstract. As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

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Estimation of hydrological response to future climate change in a cold watershed

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.026 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 78-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jian Sha ◽

Zhong-Liang Wang ◽

Yue Zhao ◽

Yan-Xue Xu ◽

Xue Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Water System ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Research Station ◽

Hydrological Process

Abstract The vulnerability of the natural water system in cold areas to future climate change is of great concern. A coupled model approach was applied in the headwater watershed area of Yalu River in the northeastern part of China to estimate the response of hydrological processes to future climate change with moderate data. The stochastic Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator was used to downscale the results of general circulation models to generate synthetic daily weather series in the 2050s and 2080s under various projected scenarios, which were applied as input data of the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions hydrological model for future hydrological process estimations. The results showed that future wetter and hotter weather conditions would have positive impacts on the watershed runoff yields but negative impacts on the watershed groundwater flow yields. The freezing period in winter would be shortened with earlier snowmelt peaks in spring. These would result in less snow cover in winter and shift the monthly allocations of streamflow with more yields in March but less in April and May, which should be of great concern for future local management. The proposed approach of the coupled model application is effective and can be used in other similar areas.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Sustainability of Tailan Underground Reservoir in China

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.726-731.3249 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 726-731 ◽

pp. 3249-3255

Author(s):

Emmanuel Kwame Appiah-Adjei ◽

Long Cang Shu ◽

Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽

Cheng Peng Lu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Research Station ◽

Recharge Sources ◽

Underground Reservoir

In order to ensure availability of water throughout the year in the Tailan River basin of northwestern China, an underground reservoir has been constructed in the basin to augment the groundwater resource and efficiently utilize it. This study investigates the potential impact of future climate change on the reservoir by assessing its influence on sustainability of recharge sources to the reservoir. The methods employed involved using a combined Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) to downscale the climate variations of the basin from a global climate model and applying them through a simple soil water balance to quantify their impact on recharge to the reservoir. The results predict the current mean monthly temperature of the basin to increase by 2.01°C and 2.84°C for the future periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively, while the precipitations are to decrease by 25% and 36% over the same periods. Consequently, the water balance analyses project the recharge to the reservoir to decrease by 37% and 49% for the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. Thus the study provides useful information for sustainable management of the reservoir against potential future climate changes.

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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6

10.5194/gmd-2016-71 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alex C. Ruane ◽

Claas Teichmann ◽

Nigell Arnell ◽

Timothy R. Carter ◽

Kristie L. Ebi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Advisory Board ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Climate Services ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Societal Relevance ◽

Ground Truthing

Abstract. The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board was created to provide a strong bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who make use of climate information (alongside other socioeconomic and environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. The initialization of CMIP6 provided a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialogue between CMIP6 climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services in order to solicit community feedback that increases applications relevance of the CMIP6 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments thought to be of greatest importance to the climate model applications community. Climate modelers therefore received useful guidance as to the applicability and societal relevance of their simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also reflected on contributions to Obs4MIPs and user needs for the gridding and processing of model output. Furthermore, the wide application of climate model outputs by VIACS users provides an error check and ground-truthing of the climate model-based results.

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Climate Change Effects on Hydropower Potential in the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy)

Earth Interactions ◽

10.1175/2012ei000508.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (19) ◽

pp. 1-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

G. T. Aronica ◽

B. Bonaccorso

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Energy Potential ◽

Hydropower Potential ◽

The Impact

Abstract In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to southern countries, which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to qualitatively assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara River basin, eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first-order Markov chain and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, respectively, for the current scenario and two future scenarios at 2025. In particular, relative changes in the monthly mean and standard deviation values of daily rainfall and temperature at 2025, predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are adopted to generate future values of precipitation and temperature. Synthetic series for the two climatic scenarios are then introduced as input into the Identification of Unit Hydrographs and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) model to simulate the hydrological response of the basin. The effects of climate change are investigated by analyzing potential modification of the resulting flow duration curves and utilization curves, which allow a site's energy potential for the design of run-of-river hydropower plants to be estimated.

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