scholarly journals Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

Technologies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahyudi Sutopo ◽  
Indah Kurniyati ◽  
Roni Zakaria
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Lithium Iron Phosphate ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Iron Phosphate ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Commercial Potential ◽  
Technology Market

LiFePhO4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, with their advantages compared to common current motorcycle batteries, are considered as an alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. The huge demand for motorcycles along with their batteries in Indonesia also make them an interesting product for business. To assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) indicators were conducted in this study. Calculations using Markov chain method show that lithium iron phosphate batteries tend to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also finds that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions: first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for lithium iron phosphate batteries, especially in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahyudi Sutopo ◽  
Indah Kurniyati ◽  
Roni Zakaria
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Market Share ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Commercial Potential ◽  
Markov Chain Method ◽  
Technology Market

LiFePO4 (LFP) or Lithium-ion battery with its advantages compared to common current motorcycle battery is an appropriate alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. Huge amount of demand of motorcycle along with the battery in Indonesia also make it an interesting product for business. In order to assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using NPV, IRR and PBP indicators have been conducted in this study. Calculation using markov chain method shows that LFP battery tends to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also figures out that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions - first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for LFP battery especially in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla A. P. Ribeiro ◽  
Tadayuki Yanagi Junior ◽  
Joaquim P. da Silva ◽  
Sílvia de N. M Yanagi ◽  
Renato S. Campos
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Power Consumption ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Financial Mathematics ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Artificial Lighting ◽  
Fluorescent Lamps ◽  
Lighting Systems ◽  
Incandescent Lamps

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

CERNE ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Donizette de Oliveira ◽  
Ivonise Silva Andrade Ribeiro ◽  
José Roberto Soares Scolforo ◽  
José Márcio de Mello ◽  
José Luiz Pereira de Rezende
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Production Methods ◽  
The Interest Rate

Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus) is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient, alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity and operating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainable management systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber; to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net Present Value over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the most significant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64% of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where the interest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management is concerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30 years), the activity is still economically feasible.

Feasibility Analysis of a Hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal Cogeneration System for Domestic Applications

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Ruiz-Casanova ◽  
Carlos Rubio-Maya ◽  
Ana Laura Soto-Sánchez ◽  
Crisanto Mendoza-Covarrubias ◽  
Jesús Martínez-Patiño
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Hybrid System ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Total Efficiency ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Cogeneration System ◽  
T System

A PV/T hybrid system is able to simultaneously produce electricity and heat from solar radiation. The feasibility of implementing PV/T systems depends primarily on climatic and economic characteristics of locations where are planned to be placed. Particularly in Mexico, there are only a few studies in the scientific literature which report the feasibility of using such innovative systems. Therefore, in this work the development of a techno-economic study is presented aiming to predict the performance and feasibility of implementation of this type of hybrid systems. Firstly, a PV/T system was designed to partially cover the needs of electricity and hot sanitary water in the domestic sector (considering a house of four inhabitants). Then, PV/T hybrid system operation was simulated using TRNSYS software over a full year using data from a typical meteorological year (TMY) of Morelia city (Michoacan State). Finally, an economic analysis was conducted, estimating the inherent cash flows and computing some economic indicators to determine the feasibility of implementation of PV/T system adapted to Mexican economic conditions. The simulation results show that the proposed system consisting of 1.55 m2 of collection area, will annually produce 1480.95 kWh and 393.57 kWh of thermal and electrical energy, respectively. The system is able to meet up to 51.2% of thermal energy and 29.2% of the electricity needed. The system reaches a total efficiency of 57.48%. The results of economic analysis indicate that in optimistic case, the proposed system has a simple payback period of 6.62 years, a net present value of $2129.0 Mexican pesos, and an internal rate of return of 14%, showing economic feasibility. The results show the great potential of the use of the hybrid PV/T systems for domestic water heating and electric production at particular locations in Mexico.

scholarly journals Economic Analysis for Investment of Public Sector’s Automated Container Terminal: Korean Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 459
Author(s):  
Yohan An ◽  
Namkyu Park
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Container Terminal ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
The Public ◽  
Port Facilities ◽  
Automated Container Terminal ◽  
The Social

The purpose of this case study is to conduct an economic analysis to calculate the proper terminal capacity of automated container terminal (ACT) investment from the perspective of the public sector. As a key element of smart port, the ACT is an important terminal operating facility for import/export and transshipment cargo between countries and must have facilities with sufficient capacity to load/unload export/import cargo in a timely manner according to the user’s request. Recently, the method of calculating the capacity of seaport infrastructure is changing from the method of applying the maximum capacity to the method of applying the proper capacity. Therefore, it is desirable to expand port facilities by investigating proper capacity rather than expanding port facilities based on the maximum performance. This study is a case study focusing on the new port of Busan introducing the ACT. From the perspective of national fiscal income and national economy from the ACT investment, this study determines the proper terminal capacity for each berth. As a result of economic analysis, the break-even terminal capacity to secure economic feasibility is from 544,272TEU of the nine berths to 600,138TEU of two berths applying a 2.96% discount ratio. In a sensitivity analysis considering the social discount rate and the change in the size of berths, the net present value has a positive value from a minimum of 530,000 TEU (nine berths with 1.96% social discount ratio) to a maximum of 620,000 TEU (three berths with 3.46% social discount ratio).

scholarly journals Economic analysis of low-temperature grain drying

2020 ◽  
pp. 930
Author(s):  
Pricila Araújo Santana ◽  
Daniela de Carvalho Lopes ◽  
Antonio José Steidle Neto
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
Furnace Fuel ◽  
Grain Drying

The main objective of this study was to simulate the economic feasibility of low-temperature grain drying systems considering Brazilian conditions and using three drying capacities, seven grain types and two furnace fuels. For this, 42 scenarios were simulated and compared among themselves by using an economic analysis based on the cash flow model with project lifetime of 20 years. The indices net present value, payback period, benefit-cost ratio and internal rate of return were applied during the analyses. Simulations showed that drying of coffee and beans in large systems presented higher economic feasibility, regardless of the furnace fuel used. All simulated scenarios were cost-effective provided that at least two drying cycles are performed per year. Labor costs, social taxes, grain type and drying capacity most affected the profitability of this kind of investment, while the furnace fuel less influenced the evaluated economic indices.

scholarly journals Reducing the Superheating of Extraction Stream on Advanced-Ultra Super Critical Power Plants with Regenerative Turbines in South Korea: An Economic Analysis

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1681
Author(s):  
Dong-Jin Cho ◽  
Eul-Bum Lee ◽  
Jae-Min Cho ◽  
Douglas Alleman
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Condition Optimization ◽  
Degree Of Extraction ◽  
Plant Efficiency ◽  
Power Plant Efficiency

In this study, an advanced-ultra super critical (A-USC) simulation model was developed using the Performance Evaluation of power system efficiencies (PEPSE) software and data collected from a 500 MW ultra-supercritical (USC) coal-fired power plant in South Korea. Using the operational USC and a typical A-USC power plant steam conditions, the model analyzed the impacts of adding an additional feedwater heater (FWH) and reheater to the baseline single reheater (SR) and 8 FWH case. Through the process of introducing reheat and/or regenerative cycles, the authors found: (1) A-USC steam conditions offers an approximate 4% power plant efficiency increase in comparison to the baseline USC steam conditions and; (2) power plant efficiencies increase approximately 1.5% when a 9th FWH and double reheater are added, however; (3) this also results in an approximate 64 °C increase in the superheating of extraction stream. This excessive rise in the superheating of extraction steam was found to cause overall energy loss, reducing the overall efficiency of the power plant. Therefore, it was surmised that if the increase in the superheat degree of extraction steam from the improved steam cycle, which can effectively reduce, the efficiency of the power plant could be further improved. To determine the efficiency variations based on the reduction of the superheat degree of extraction steam, the authors applied a regenerative turbine (RT) to the model. Introducing the RT to the A-USC DR and 9 FWH was found to decrease from the average extraction steam temperature from 221 °C to 108 °C and result in an increase in power plant efficiency of approximately 0.3% to 49.5%. An economic analysis was also performed to assess the fiscal feasibility of adding an RT. Assuming the initial investment to be USD 1409 million, implementing an RT equated to a net present value increase of approximately USD 33 million as compared to that of similar life (30 years of durability) expectancy of A-USC without using an RT. The findings of this study have the potential to improve South Korea’s energy policy, reducing the superheat degree of extraction steam that rises excessively during A-USC steam condition optimization. While this study is focused on South Korea, said findings are also generalizable to worldwide energy policies, serving as an effective method to not only increase system efficiencies, but enhance the economic feasibility as well.

scholarly journals Techno Economic Analysis of Hybrid Sea Floating Photovoltaic and Wind Turbine for Fish Cold Storage At Remote Island In Indonesia (Case Study: Small Kei Island, Maluku, Indonesia)

2018 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 01001
Author(s):  
Fidel Rezki Fajry ◽  
Iwa Garniwa ◽  
Achmad Fajar Tofani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Cold Storage ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Levelized Cost ◽  
Wind Turbine System ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
Grid Scheme

Most of fisherman in Small Kei Island, Indonesia, are difficult to keep the good quality of fish for several days because unavailability of Fish Cold Storage. Due to the area is also far from grid, this paper is aimed to analyse the most optimized sizing of integrating the new technology of sea floating photovoltaic and wind turbine to achieve the minimal levelized cost of energy for powering 100 tons of fish cold storage. Ten scenarios with implemented off-grid scheme by dividing battery bank into two equal parts that will be operated interchangeably to meet 24 hours load requirement on hybrid sea floating photovoltaic and wind turbine system are performed. As result, 100 kW of wind turbine and 803kWp of sea floating photovoltaic are chosen with the most minimal levelized cost of energy of USD 0.52/kWH by life cycle cost method of 20 years. With define electricity tariff of USD 0.81/kWH and interest loan of 9%, the economic analysis result fulfil of four indicators requirement with payback period of 6 years 6 months 20 days, net present value of USD 10,981, internal rate of return of 9.10%, and profitability index of 1.60.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

CERNE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes ◽  
Luiz Moreira Coelho Júnior ◽  
Antônio Donizette de Oliveira ◽  
José Márcio de Mello ◽  
José Luiz Pereira de Rezende ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Charcoal Production ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Return On Capital

Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

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