scholarly journals Drought in the Twenty-First Century in a Water-Rich Region: Modeling Study of the Wabash River Watershed, USA

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer R. Dierauer ◽  
Chen Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
First Century ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Wabash River ◽  
The Past ◽  
Twenty First Century

Climate change is expected to alter drought regimes across North America throughout the twenty-first century, and, consequently, future drought risk may not resemble the past. To explore the implications of nonstationary drought risk, this study combined a calibrated, regional-scale hydrological model with statistically downscaled climate projections and standardized drought indices to identify intra-annual patterns in the response of meteorological, soil moisture, and hydrological drought to climate change. We focus on a historically water-rich, highly agricultural watershed in the US Midwest—the Wabash River Basin. The results show likely increases in the frequency of soil moisture and hydrological drought, despite minimal changes in the frequency of meteorological drought. We use multiple linear regression models to interpret these results in the context of climate warming and show that increasing temperatures amplify soil moisture and hydrological drought, with the same amount of precipitation yielding significantly lower soil moisture and significantly lower runoff in the future than in the past. The novel methodology presented in this study can be transferred to other regions and used to understand how the relationship between meteorological drought and soil moisture/hydrological drought will change under continued climate warming.

scholarly journals El Niño–Induced Tropical Droughts in Climate Change Projections

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (23) ◽  
pp. 6456-6476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caio A. S. Coelho ◽  
Lisa Goddard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
First Century ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract El Niño brings widespread drought (i.e., precipitation deficit) to the tropics. Stronger or more frequent El Niño events in the future and/or their intersection with local changes in the mean climate toward a future with reduced precipitation would exacerbate drought risk in highly vulnerable tropical areas. Projected changes in El Niño characteristics and associated teleconnections are investigated between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. For climate change models that reproduce realistic oceanic variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, results suggest no robust changes in the strength or frequency of El Niño events. These models exhibit realistic patterns, magnitude, and spatial extent of El Niño–induced drought patterns in the twentieth century, and the teleconnections are not projected to change in the twenty-first century, although a possible slight reduction in the spatial extent of droughts is indicated over the tropics as a whole. All model groups investigated show similar changes in mean precipitation for the end of the twenty-first century, with increased precipitation projected between 10°S and 10°N, independent of the ability of the models to replicate ENSO variability. These results suggest separability between climate change and ENSO-like climate variability in the tropics. As El Niño–induced precipitation drought patterns are not projected to change, the observed twentieth-century variability is used in combination with model-projected changes in mean precipitation for assessing year-to-year drought risk in the twenty-first century. Results suggest more locally consistent changes in regional drought risk among models with good fidelity in reproducing ENSO variability.

Aspirations, Global Futures, and Lessons from Sámi Popular Music for the Twenty-First Century

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tina K. Ramnarine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Century ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Cultural Survival ◽  
Collective Rights ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Face ◽  
Global Survival ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Global Futures

This chapter presents case studies of three Sámi musicians, focusing on their aspirations for collective rights, cultural distinctiveness, and self-determination. Contrary to early twentieth-century fears that vocal genres like joik were disappearing, music has become one of the most important elements in stories of Sámi cultural survival in the twenty-first century. The chapter examines the role that music plays in valuing nature and imagining alternatives to dominant power regimes in the context of climate change. The author argues that in the face of threats to global survival, historians could give more priority to questions about how the past speaks to us and what it teaches us about survival.

scholarly journals Is a Transition to Semipermanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the U.S. Great Plains?

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (24) ◽  
pp. 8380-8386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Jon K. Eischeid ◽  
Xiao-Wei Quan ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
Robert S. Webb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
First Century ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract How Great Plains climate will respond under global warming continues to be a key unresolved question. There has been, for instance, considerable speculation that the Great Plains is embarking upon a period of increasing drought frequency and intensity that will lead to a semipermanent Dust Bowl in the coming decades. This view draws on a single line of inference of how climate change may affect surface water balance based on sensitivity of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A different view foresees a more modest climate change impact on Great Plains surface moisture balances. This draws on direct lines of analysis using land surface models to predict runoff and soil moisture, the results of which do not reveal an ominous fate for the Great Plains. The authors’ study presents a parallel diagnosis of projected changes in drought as inferred from PDSI and soil moisture indicators in order to understand causes for such a disparity and to shed light on the uncertainties. PDSI is shown to be an excellent proxy indicator for Great Plains soil moisture in the twentieth century; however, its suitability breaks down in the twenty-first century, with the PDSI severely overstating surface water imbalances and implied agricultural stresses. Several lines of evidence and physical considerations indicate that simplifying assumptions regarding temperature effects on water balances, especially concerning evapotranspiration in Palmer’s formulation, compromise its suitability as drought indicator in a warming climate. The authors conclude that projections of acute and chronic PDSI decline in the twenty-first century are likely an exaggerated indicator for future Great Plains drought severity.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

Introduction

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex J. Bellamy
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
East Asia ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Cold War

Until recently, East Asia was a boiling pot of massacre and blood-letting. Yet, almost unnoticed by the wider world, it has achieved relative peace over the past three decades.1 At the height of the Cold War, East Asia accounted for around 80 percent of the world’s mass atrocities. By the second decade of the twenty-first century, it accounted for less than 5 percent....

The Twenty-first Century

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Gillespie
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
First Century ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Species Loss ◽  
The Past ◽  
Scientific Terms ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Open Question ◽  
New Generation

The cumulative environmental challenge of sustainable development in the twenty-first century is larger than anything humanity has ever had to deal with in the past. The good news is that solid progress is being reached in the understanding of issues in scientific terms and understanding what needs to be done. The bad news is twofold. First, although many of the environmental problems of earlier centuries are now being confronted, a new generation of difficulties is eclipsing what were the older difficulties. Secondly, much of the progress is being achieved by the wealthier parts of the planet, rather than the developing world. From population growth to climate change to unprecedented habitat and species loss, whether environmental sustainability can be achieved in the twenty-first century is an open question.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

Alpine sparsely vegetated areas in the eastern Qilian Mountains shrank with climate warming in the past 30 years

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Zeng ◽  
Fuguang Zhang ◽  
Taibao Yang ◽  
Jiaguo Qi ◽  
Mihretab G Ghebrezgabher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Hydrothermal Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Distribution Ranges

Alpine sparsely vegetated areas (ASVAs) in mountains are sensitive to climate change and rarely studied. In this study, we focused on the response of ASVA distribution to climate change in the eastern Qilian Mountains (EQLM) from the 1990s to the 2010s. The ASVA distribution ranges in the EQLM during the past three decades were obtained from the Thematic Mapper remote sensing digital images by using the threshold of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and artificial visual interpretation. Results indicated that the ASVA shrank gradually in the EQLM and lost its area by approximately 11.4% from the 1990s to the 2010s. The shrunken ASVA with markedly more area than the expanded one was mainly located at altitudes from 3700 m to 4300 m, which were comparatively lower than the average altitude of the ASVA distribution ranges. This condition led to the low ASVA boundaries in the EQLM moving upwards at a significant velocity of 22 m/decade at the regional scale. This vertical zonal process was modulated by topography-induced differences in local hydrothermal conditions. Thus, the ASVA shrank mainly in its lower parts with mild and sunny slopes. Annual maximum NDVI in the transition zone increased significantly and showed a stronger positive correlation with significantly increasing temperature than insignificant precipitation variations during 1990–2015. The ASVA shrinkage and up-shifting of its boundary were attributed to climate warming, which facilitated the upper part of alpine meadow in the EQLM by releasing the low temperature limitation on vegetation growth.

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