scholarly journals Evaluation of a Distributed Streamflow Forecast Model at Multiple Watershed Scales

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1279
Author(s):  
Tyler Madsen ◽  
Kristie Franz ◽  
Terri Hogue
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Verification Period ◽  
Silver Spring

Demand for reliable estimates of streamflow has increased as society becomes more susceptible to climatic extremes such as droughts and flooding, especially at small scales where local population centers and infrastructure can be affected by rapidly occurring events. In the current study, the Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) (NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD, USA) was used to explore the accuracy of a distributed hydrologic model to simulate discharge at watershed scales ranging from 20 to 2500 km2. The model was calibrated and validated using observed discharge data at the basin outlets, and discharge at uncalibrated subbasin locations was evaluated. Two precipitation products with nominal spatial resolutions of 12.5 km and 4 km were tested to characterize the role of input resolution on the discharge simulations. In general, model performance decreased as basin size decreased. When sub-basin area was less than 250 km2 or 20–40% of the total watershed area, model performance dropped below the defined acceptable levels. Simulations forced with the lower resolution precipitation product had better model evaluation statistics; for example, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) scores ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 for the verification period for basin outlets, compared to scores that ranged from 0.33 to 0.52 for the higher spatial resolution forcing.

Predictably Predictable -  The Role of Catchment Characteristics and Complexity.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophia Eugeni ◽  
Eric Vaags ◽  
Steven V. Weijs
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Complexity Analysis ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling

<p>Accurate hydrologic modelling is critical to effective water resource management. As catchment attributes strongly influence the hydrologic behaviors in an area, they can be used to inform hydrologic models to better predict the discharge in a basin. Some basins may be more difficult to accurately predict than others. The difficulty in predicting discharge may also be related to the complexity of the discharge signal. The study establishes the relationship between a catchment’s static attributes and hydrologic model performance in those catchments, and also investigates the link to complexity, which we quantify with measures of compressibility based in information theory. </p><p>The project analyzes a large national dataset, comprised of catchment attributes for basins across the United States, paired with established performance metrics for corresponding hydrologic models. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was completed on the catchment attributes data to determine the strongest modes in the input. The basins were clustered according to their catchment attributes and the performance within the clusters was compared. </p><p>Significant differences in model performance emerged between the clusters of basins. For the complexity analysis, details of the implementation and technical challenges will be discussed, as well as preliminary results.</p>

scholarly journals Mixed Variational-Monte Carlo Assimilation of Streamflow Data in Flood Forecasting: the Impact of Observations Spatial Distribution

10.29007/39wq ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Ercolani ◽  
Fabio Castelli
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Variational Monte Carlo ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact

A mixed variational-Monte Carlo scheme is employed to assimilate streamflow data at multiple locations in a distributed hydrologic model for flood forecasting purposes. The goal of this work is to assess the role of the spatial distribution of the assimilation points in terms of forecasts accuracy. The area of study is Arno river basin, and the strategy of investigation is to focus on one single nearly-flood event, performing various assimilation experiments that differ only in number and location of the assimilation sites.

Hydrologic Evaluation of Rainfall Estimates from Radar, Satellite, Gauge, and Combinations on Ft. Cobb Basin, Oklahoma

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 973-988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Zachary L. Flamig ◽  
Jiahu Wang ◽  
Humberto Vergara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stage Iv ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Efficiency Score ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Radar Satellite ◽  
Rainfall Estimates

Abstract This study evaluates rainfall estimates from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), operational rain gauges, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) in the context as inputs to a calibrated, distributed hydrologic model. A high-density Micronet of rain gauges on the 342-km2 Ft. Cobb basin in Oklahoma was used as reference rainfall to calibrate the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) at 4-km/l-h and 0.25°/3-h resolutions. The unadjusted radar product was the overall worst product, while the stage IV radar product with hourly rain gauge adjustment had the best hydrologic skill with a Micronet relative efficiency score of −0.5, only slightly worse than the reference simulation forced by Micronet rainfall. Simulations from TRMM-3B42RT were better than PERSIANN-CCS-RT (a real-time version of PERSIANN-CSS) and equivalent to those from the operational rain gauge network. The high degree of hydrologic skill with TRMM-3B42RT forcing was only achievable when the model was calibrated at TRMM’s 0.25°/3-h resolution, thus highlighting the importance of considering rainfall product resolution during model calibration.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Using Satellite-Derived Potential Evapotranspiration

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan R. Spies ◽  
Kristie J. Franz ◽  
Terri S. Hogue ◽  
Angela L. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Taylor Formula ◽  
Verification Period ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Discharge Simulation ◽  
Resolution Imaging ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Abstract Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates computed from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations and the Priestley–Taylor formula (M-PET) are evaluated as input to the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). The HL-RDHM is run at a 4-km spatial and 6-h temporal resolution for 13 watersheds in the upper Mississippi and Red River basins for 2003–10. Simulated discharge using inputs of daily M-PET is evaluated for all watersheds, and simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is evaluated at two watersheds using nearby latent heat flux observations. M-PET–derived model simulations are compared to output using the long-term average PET values (default-PET) provided as part of the HL-RDHM application. In addition, uncalibrated and calibrated simulations are evaluated for both PET data sources. Calibrating select model parameters is found to substantially improve simulated discharge for both datasets. Overall average percent bias (PBias) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for simulated discharge are better from the default-PET than the M-PET for the calibrated models during the verification period, indicating that the time-varying M-PET input did not improve the discharge simulation in the HL-RDHM. M-PET tends to produce higher NSE values than the default-PET for the Wisconsin and Minnesota basins, but lower NSE values for the Iowa basins. M-PET–simulated ET matches the range and variability of observed ET better than the default-PET at two sites studied and may provide potential model improvements in that regard.

Using Densely Distributed Soil Moisture Observations for Calibration of a Hydrologic Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 571-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Thorstensen ◽  
Phu Nguyen ◽  
Kuolin Hsu ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Promising Result ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Tuning Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
Single Pixel ◽  
Consistent Parameter ◽  
Moisture Dynamics

Abstract Calibration is a crucial step in hydrologic modeling that is typically handled by tuning parameters to match an observed hydrograph. In this research, an alternative calibration scheme based on soil moisture was investigated as a means of identifying the potentially heterogeneous calibration needs of a distributed hydrologic model. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) was employed to carry out such a calibration, along with concentrated in situ soil moisture observations from the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) field campaign in Iowa’s Turkey River basin. Synthetic, single-pixel experiments were conducted in order to identify parameters relevant to soil moisture dynamics and to test the ability of three calibration procedures (discharge, soil moisture, and hybrid based) to recapture prescribed parameter sets. It was found that three storage parameters of HL-RDHM could be consistently identified using soil moisture RMSE as the objective function and that the addition of discharge-based calibration led to more consistent parameter identification for all 11 storage and release parameters. Expanding to full-basin experiments, these three calibration procedures were applied following an investigation to find the most advantageous method of distributing the point-based calibrations carried out at each pixel collocated with an IFloodS observation site. A method based on pixel similarity was deemed most appropriate for this purpose. Additionally, streamflow simulations calibrated with soil moisture showed improvement in RMSE and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for all calibration–validation events despite a short calibration period, a promising result when considering calibration of ungauged basins. However, supplementary evaluation metrics show mixed results for streamflow simulations, suggesting further investigation is required.

scholarly journals Assessing the Efficacy of High-Resolution Satellite-Based PERSIANN-CDR Precipitation Product in Simulating Streamflow

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2061-2076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Ashouri ◽  
Phu Nguyen ◽  
Andrea Thorstensen ◽  
Kuo-lin Hsu ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
Runoff Modeling

Abstract This study aims to investigate the performance of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) in a rainfall–runoff modeling application over the past three decades. PERSIANN-CDR provides precipitation data at daily and 0.25° temporal and spatial resolutions from 1983 to present for the 60°S–60°N latitude band and 0°–360° longitude. The study is conducted in two phases over three test basins from the Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (DMIP2). In phase 1, a more recent period of time (2003–10) when other high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products are available is chosen. Precipitation evaluation analysis, conducted against stage IV gauge-adjusted radar data, shows that PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) have close performances with a higher correlation coefficient for TMPA (~0.8 vs 0.75 for PERSIANN-CDR) and almost the same root-mean-square deviation (~6) for both products. TMPA and PERSIANN-CDR outperform PERSIANN, mainly because, unlike PERSIANN, TMPA and PERSIANN-CDR are gauge-adjusted precipitation products. The National Weather Service Office of Hydrologic Development Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) is then forced with PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CDR, TMPA, and stage IV data. Quantitative analysis using five different statistical and model efficiency measures against USGS streamflow observation show that in general in all three DMIP2 basins, the simulated hydrographs forced with PERSIANN-CDR and TMPA have close agreement. Given the promising results in the first phase, the simulation process is extended back to 1983 where only PERSIANN-CDR rainfall estimates are available. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR-derived streamflow simulations are comparable to USGS observations with correlation coefficients of ~0.67–0.73, relatively low biases (~5%–12%), and high index of agreement criterion (~0.68–0.83) between PERSIANN-CDR-simulated daily streamflow and USGS daily observations. The results prove the capability of PERSIANN-CDR in hydrological rainfall–runoff modeling application, especially for long-term streamflow simulations over the past three decades.

The Role of Distress Disclosure Tendencies in the Experience and Expression of Laboratory-Induced Sadness

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey H. Kahn ◽  
Daniel W. Cox ◽  
A. Myfanwy Bakker ◽  
Julia I. O’Loughlin ◽  
Agnieszka M. Kotlarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Emotional Reactivity ◽  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Negative Emotion ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Emotion Words ◽  
Distress Disclosure ◽  
Computerized Text Analysis

Abstract. The benefits of talking with others about unpleasant emotions have been thoroughly investigated, but individual differences in distress disclosure tendencies have not been adequately integrated within theoretical models of emotion. The purpose of this laboratory research was to determine whether distress disclosure tendencies stem from differences in emotional reactivity or differences in emotion regulation. After completing measures of distress disclosure tendencies, social desirability, and positive and negative affect, 84 participants (74% women) were video recorded while viewing a sadness-inducing film clip. Participants completed post-film measures of affect and were then interviewed about their reactions to the film; these interviews were audio recorded for later coding and computerized text analysis. Distress disclosure tendencies were not predictive of the subjective experience of emotion, but they were positively related to facial expressions of sadness and happiness. Distress disclosure tendencies also predicted judges’ ratings of the verbal disclosure of emotion during the interview, but self-reported disclosure and use of positive and negative emotion words were not associated with distress disclosure tendencies. The authors present implications of this research for integrating individual differences in distress disclosure with models of emotion.

A Court in Decline? Examining the Regality Court Records of Melrose, Roxburghshire, 1657–84

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Vivienne Dunstan
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Court Records ◽  
Seminal Work

McIntyre, in his seminal work on Scottish franchise courts, argues that these courts were in decline in this period, and of little relevance to their local population. 1 But was that really the case? This paper explores that question, using a particularly rich set of local court records. By analysing the functions and significance of one particular court it assesses the role of this one court within its local area, and considers whether it really was in decline at this time, or if it continued to perform a vital role in its local community. The period studied is the mid to late seventeenth century, a period of considerable upheaval in Scottish life, that has attracted considerable attention from scholars, though often less on the experiences of local communities and people.

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