Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff Based on Improved Budyko Framework Models Considering Arbitrary Partition of the Impacts

Various models based on Budyko framework, widely applied to quantify the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff, assumed a fixed partition used to distinguish the impacts. Several articles have applied a weighting factor describing arbitrary partitions for developing a total differential Budyko (TDB) model and a complementary Budyko (CB) model. This study introduces the weighting factor into a decomposition Budyko (DB) model and applies these three models to analyze runoff variation due to the impacts in the upper-midstream Heihe River basin. The Pettitt test is first applied to determine a change point of a time series expanded by the runoff coefficient. The cause for the change point is analyzed. Transition matrix is adopted to investigate factors of LUCC. Results suggest the consistency of the CB, TDB, and present DB models in estimating runoff variation due to the impacts. The existing DB model excluding the weighting factor overestimates the impact of climate change on runoff and underestimates the LUCC impact as compared with the present DB model. With two extreme values of the weighting factor, runoff decrease induced by LUCC falls in the range of 65.20%–66.42% predicted by the CB model, 65.01%–66.57% by the TDB model, and 64.83%–66.85% by the present DB model. The transition matrixes indicate the major factors of LUCC are climate warming in the upstream of the study area and cropping in the midstream. Our work provides researchers with a better understanding of runoff variation due to climate change and LUCC.

Download Full-text

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff Based on Multiple Water-Energy Balance Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3276 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Manling Xiong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Energy Balance ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Heihe River ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Energy Balance Models ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The runoff in river systems has been significantly changed by climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC), while the magnitude and patterns vary because of the factors. Investigating the major factor impacting runoff variation is necessary for water resource management. In this work, five different water-energy balance models are used to analyze the cause of runoff variations; of these models, three are based on the Budyko framework and two are based on the ecohydrological conceptual framework. The approach is demonstrated using the upper-midstream of the Heihe Rivers. The results suggest LUCC is the dominant cause of runoff change in the range of 59.92% ~ 65.14%. The estimated impacts of climate change and LUCC are consistent among the five models. Cropping is the major human activity resulting in LUCC at the upper-midstream of the Heihe River. Meanwhile, the change in runoff is more sensitive to precipitation than to potential evapotranspiration. Our work summarizes five widely used water-energy balance models used to explain the impacts of climate change and LUCC on runoff, which may be of importance in explaining the mechanism of runoff change.

Download Full-text

Land Use Zoning for Conserving Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/496942 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Chenchen Shi ◽

Jinyan Zhan ◽

Yongwei Yuan ◽

Feng Wu ◽

Zhihui Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

The Heihe River Basin

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

Download Full-text

Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.422 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

J. S. Wu ◽

Y. P. Li ◽

J. Sun ◽

P. P. Gao ◽

G. H. Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Arable Land ◽

Low Flow ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

Download Full-text

Anthropization and Climate Change: Impact on the Discharges of Forest Watersheds in Central Africa

Water ◽

10.3390/w12102718 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 2718

Author(s):

Valentin Brice Ebodé ◽

Gil Mahé ◽

Jean Guy Dzana ◽

Joseph Armathé Amougou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Central Africa ◽

Summer Rainfall ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Pettitt Test ◽

Landsat Satellite ◽

Maximum Flows ◽

The Impact

Climate change and anthropization are major drivers of river flows variability. However, understanding their simultaneous impact on discharges is limited. As a contribution to address this limitation, the objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change and anthropization on the discharges of two watersheds of Central Africa (Nyong and Ntem) over a recent period. For this, the hydropluviometric data of the watersheds concerned were analyzed using the Pettitt test. Similarly, the dynamics of the main land use modes (LUM) have been assessed, through classifications obtained from the processing of Landsat satellite images of the watersheds studied on two dates. The results of this study show that in Central Africa, annual discharges have decreased significantly since the 1970s, and yet the decline in annual rainfall does not become significant until the 2000s. The discharges of the rainy seasons (spring and autumn) recorded the most important changes, following variations in the rainfall patterns of the dry seasons (winter and summer) that precede them. Winters experienced a significant decrease in precipitation between the 1970s and 1990s, which caused a drop in spring flows. Their rise, which began in the 2000s, is also accompanied by an increase in spring flows, which nevertheless seems rather slight in the case of the Nyong. Conversely, between the 1970s and 1990s, there was a joint increase in summer rainfall and autumn flows. A decrease of summer rainfall was noted since the 2000s, and is also noticeable in autumn flows. Maximum flows have remained constant on the Nyong despite the slight drop in rainfall. This seems to be the consequence of changes in land use patterns (diminution of forest and increasing of impervious areas). The decrease in maximums flows noted on the Ntem could be linked to the slight drop in precipitation during the rainy seasons that generates it. Factors such as the general decrease in precipitation during the winter and the reduction in the area occupied by water bodies could justify the decrease in minimum flows observed in the two watersheds. These findings would be vital to enhance water management capabilities in the watersheds concerned and in the region. They can also give some new elements to study and understand the seasonal variation and fresh water availability in downstream, estuaries and coastal areas of the regional rivers.

Download Full-text

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF SOME RELATED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS UNDER THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT DISTRICT 8 IN HO CHI MINH CITY

Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology ◽

10.15625/2525-2518/54/2a/11933 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 (2A) ◽

pp. 214

Author(s):

Nguyen Phu Bao

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Supply ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Ho Chi Minh City ◽

Economic Parameters ◽

The Impact ◽

Level Group ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

About 7.9 % of population is living in poverty at District 8, which is one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The impacts of climate change (CC) on some related socio-economic parameters at District 8 were assessed using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and livelihood vulnerability index (LVI). For this, four Asian Development Bank’s criteria including public health, transport, energy, and water supply and drainage (WSD) were used. In addition, however, six World Bank’s criteria including land use, population, gross domestic product (GDP), urban expansion, agriculture and wetland were also used just for initially trying whether or to what extent they can be useful for such downscaled application. Results of this study show that the level of CC impacts on the residential areas is rather high, with an average LVI of 0.056. In addition, the results of AHP shown that the impact levels on the study fields are determined to follow a decreasing order as: first level group including energy, water supply and drainage, transport, and public health (with total score 0.22); the second level group including land use and wetland (with total score 0.14); the third level group including population and urban expansion (with total score 0.1); and at last the fourth level group including GDP and agriculture (with total score 0.09).

Download Full-text

The Impact of Climate Change on Storage-Yield Curves for Multi-Reservoir Systems

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.1999.0007 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 129-146 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

N. R. Nawaz ◽

A. J. Adeloye ◽

M. Montaseri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Fluxes ◽

Runoff Coefficient ◽

Impact Study ◽

Yield Functions ◽

Reservoir Systems ◽

English System ◽

Multiple Reservoir ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into the impacts of climate change on the storage-yield relationships for two multiple-reservoir systems, one in England and the other in Iran. The impact study uses established protocol and obtains perturbed monthly inflow series using a simple runoff coefficient approach which accounts for non-evaporative losses in the catchment, and a number of recently published GCM-based scenarios. The multi-reservoir analysis is based on the sequent-peak algorithm which has been modified to analyse multiple reservoirs and to accommodate explicitly performance norms and reservoir surface fluxes, i.e. evaporation and rainfall. As a consequence, it was also possible to assess the effect of including reservoir surface fluxes on the storage-yield functions. The results showed that, under baseline conditions, consideration of net evaporation will require lower storages for the English system and higher storages for the Iranian system. However, with perturbed hydroclimatology different impacts were obtained depending on the systems' yield and reliability. Possible explanations are offered for the observed behaviours.

Download Full-text

Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Download Full-text

Influence of climate change on soil erosion in high mountain area: a case study of upper Heihe river basin

10.5194/ismc2021-71 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Li Wang ◽

Fan Zhang ◽

Guanxing Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

River Basin ◽

Effect Of Temperature ◽

Heihe River ◽

High Mountain ◽

Mountain Area ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

High Mountain Area ◽

The Impact

The impact of climate change on soil erosion is pronounced in high mountain area. In this study, the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model was improved for better calculation of soil erosion during snowmelt period by integrating a distributed hydrological model in upper Heihe river basin (UHRB). The results showed that the annual average soil erosion rate from 1982 to 2015 in the study area was 8.1 t ha-1 yr-1, belonging to the light grade. To evaluate the influence of climate change on soil erosion, detrended analysis of precipitation, temperature and NDVI was conducted. It was found that in detrended analysis of precipitation and temperature, the soil erosion of UHRB would decrease 26.5% and 3.0%, respectively. While in detrended analysis of NDVI, soil erosion would increase 9.9%. Compared with precipitation, the effect of temperature on total soil erosion was not significant, but the detrended analysis of temperature showed that the effect of temperature on soil erosion during snowmelt period can reach 70%. These finding were helpful for better understanding of the impact of climate change on soil erosion and provide a scientific basis for soil management in high mountain area under climate change in the future.

Download Full-text

Extreme weather highlights longer-term Canada concerns

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db266493 ◽

2022 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Indigenous Peoples ◽

Clean Energy ◽

Focused Attention ◽

Content Type ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

Extreme Cold ◽

The Impact ◽

Ways Of Life ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Significance The extreme cold comes as the province is still dealing with the damage caused by unprecedented levels of heat and wildfires last summer and then record levels of rainfall and flooding in November. Its experience has focused attention on Canada’s wider vulnerability to the impact of shifting weather patterns and climate change. Impacts The natural resource sectors that are vital to Canada’s economy face an increasingly difficult environment for extraction. Indigenous peoples across the country will see their traditional ways of life further disrupted by climate change. The increasingly evident impacts of climate change on day-to-day life will see voters demand greater action from government. Significant investment in green initiatives, clean energy and climate resiliency initiatives will boost green industries.

Download Full-text

Bias correction of extreme values of high resolution climate simulations for risk analysis.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-264479/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

luis Augusto sanabria ◽

Xuerong Qin ◽

Jin Li ◽

Robert Peter Cechet

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Extreme Values ◽

The Body ◽

Future Climate ◽

Return Periods ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

The Impact

Abstract Most climatic models show that climate change affects natural perils' frequency and severity. Quantifying the impact of future climate conditions on natural hazard is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning. One crucial factor to consider when using climate simulations projections is the inherent systematic differences (bias) of the modelled data compared with observations. This bias can originate from the modelling process, the techniques used for downscaling of results, and the ensembles' intrinsic variability. Analysis of climate simulations has shown that the biases associated with these data types can be significant. Hence, it is often necessary to correct the bias before the data can be reliably used for further analysis. Natural perils are often associated with extreme climatic conditions. Analysing trends in the tail end of distributions are already complicated because noise is much more prominent than that in the mean climate. The bias of the simulations can introduce significant errors in practical applications. In this paper, we present a methodology for bias correction of climate simulated data. The technique corrects the bias in both the body and the tail of the distribution (extreme values). As an illustration, maps of the 50 and 100-year Return Period of climate simulated Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) in Australia are presented and compared against the corresponding observation-based maps. The results show that the algorithm can substantially improve the calculation of simulation-based Return Periods. Forthcoming work will focus on the impact of climate change on these Return Periods considering future climate conditions.

Download Full-text