Assessment of Drought Severity and Vulnerability in the Lam Phaniang River Basin, Thailand

The Lam Phaniang River Basin is one of the areas in Northeast Thailand that experiences persistent drought almost every year. Therefore, this study was focused on the assessment of drought severity and vulnerability in the Lam Phaniang River Basin. The evaluation of drought severity was based on the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), which was derived from the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated for 3-month (short-term), 12-month (intermediate-term), and 24-month (long-term) periods. Drought vulnerability was assessed by the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI), which relied on water shortage, water demand, and runoff calculated from the WEAP model, and the Gross Provincial Product (GPP) data. A drought risk map was generated by multiplying the DHI and DVI indices, and the drought risk level was then defined afterwards. The CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, and NorESM1-M global climate simulations, and the TerrSet software were used to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and land use during 2021–2100, respectively. The main findings compared to baseline (2000–2017) revealed that the average results of future rainfall, and maximum and minimum temperatures were expected to increase by 1.41 mm, and 0.015 °C/year and 0.019 °C/year, respectively, under RCP 4.5 and by 2.72 mm, and 0.034 °C/year and 0.044 °C/year, respectively, under RCP 8.5. During 2061–2080 under RCP 8.5, the future annual water demand and water shortage were projected to decrease by a maximum of 31.81% and 51.61%, respectively. Obviously, in the Lam Phaniang River Basin, the upper and lower parts were mainly dominated by low and moderate drought risk levels at all time scales under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Focusing on the central part, from 2021–2040, a very high risk of intermediate- and long-term droughts under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 dominated, and occurred under RCP 8.5 from 2041–2060. From 2061 to 2080, at all time scales, the highest risk was identified under RCP 4.5, while low and moderate levels were found under RCP 8.5. From 2081–2100, the central region was found to be at low and moderate risk at all time scales under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Eventually, the obtained findings will enable stakeholders to formulate better proactive drought monitoring, so that preparedness, adaptation, and resilience to droughts can be strengthened.

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Flash Drought Characteristics by Different Severities in Humid Subtropical Basins: A Case Study in the Gan River Basin, China

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0596.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-44

Author(s):

Yuqing Zhang ◽

Qinglong You ◽

Guangxiong Mao ◽

Changchun Chen ◽

Xin Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

River Basin ◽

Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽

Severity Index ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Rapid Decline ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Drought Event ◽

Drought Period ◽

Drought Intensity

AbstractIt is essential to assess flash drought risk based on a reliable flash drought intensity (severity) index incorporating comprehensive information of the rapid decline (“flash”) in soil moisture towards drought conditions and soil moisture thresholds belonging to the “drought” category. In this study, we used the Gan River Basin as an example to define a flash drought intensity index that can be calculated for individual time steps (pentads) during a flash drought period over a given grid (or station). The severity of a complete flash drought event is the sum of the intensity values during the flash drought. We explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of flash droughts with different grades based on their respective severities. The results show that decreases in total cloud cover, precipitation, and relative humidity, as well as increases in 500 hPa geopotential height, convective inhibition, temperature, vapour pressure deficit, and wind speed can create favorable conditions for the occurrence of flash droughts. Although flash droughts are relatively frequent in the central and southern parts of the basin, the severity is relatively high in the northern part of the basin due to longer duration. Flash drought severity shows a slightly downward trend due to decreases in frequency, duration, and intensity from 1961 to 2018. Extreme and exceptional flash droughts decrease significantly while moderate and severe flash droughts trend slightly upward. Flash drought severity appears to be more affected by the interaction between duration and intensity as the grade increases from mild to severe. The frequency and duration of flash droughts are higher in July to October. The southern part of the basin is more prone to moderate and severe flash droughts, while the northern parts of the basin are more vulnerable to extreme and exceptional flash droughts due to longer durations and greater severities than other parts. Moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional flash droughts occurred approximately every 3-6, 5-15, 10-50, and 30-200 year intervals, respectively, based on the copula analysis.

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Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11101958 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1958 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zhang ◽

Wang ◽

Zhou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Large Scale ◽

Research Area ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Drought Duration ◽

Recurrence Period ◽

The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

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Economic losses from changing hydrology under future climate change, glacier shrinkage and growing water demand in the Tropical Andes

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12448 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fabian Drenkhan ◽

Randy Muñoz ◽

Christian Huggel ◽

Holger Frey ◽

Fernando Valenzuela ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Demand ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Water Volume ◽

Tropical Andes ◽

Glacier Shrinkage ◽

Outburst Floods

In the Tropical Andes, glaciers play a fundamental role for sustaining human livelihoods and ecosystems in headwater areas and further downstream. However, current rates of glacier shrinkage driven by climate change as well as increasing water demand levels bear a threat to long-term water supply. While a growing number of research has covered impacts of climate change and glacier shrinkage on the terrestrial water cycle and potential disaster risks, the associated potential economic losses have barely been assessed.Here we present an integrated surface-groundwater assessment model for multiple water sectors under current conditions (1981-2016) and future scenarios (2050) of glacier shrinkage and growing water demand. As a case, the lumped model has been applied to the Santa river basin (including the Cordillera Blanca, Andes of Peru) within three subcatchments and considers effects from evapotranspiration, environmental flows and backflows of water use. Therefore, coupled greenhouse gas concentration (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and socioeconomic scenarios are used, which provide a broad range of the magnitude of glacier and water volume changes and associated economic impacts. Finally, net water volume released on the long term due to deglaciation effects is quantified and by multiple metrics converted into potential economic costs and losses for the agriculture, household and hydropower sectors. Additionally, the potential damages from outburst floods from current and future lakes have been included. Results for the entire Santa river basin show that water availability would diminish by about 11-16% (57-78 106 m&#179;) in the dry season (June-August) and by some 7-10% (103-155 106 m&#179;) during the wet season (December-February) under selected glacier shrinkage scenarios until 2050. This is a consequence of diminishing glacier contribution to streamflow which until 2050 would reduce from about 45% to 33% for June-August and from 6% to 4% for December-February. A first rough estimate suggests associated economic losses for main water demand sectors (agriculture, hydropower, drinking water) on the order of about 300 106 USD/year by 2050. Additionally, with ongoing glacier shrinkage and the formation of new lakes, about 45,000 inhabitants and 30,000 buildings are expected to be exposed to the risk of outburst floods in the 21st century.The pressure on water resources and interconnected socio-eonvironmental systems in the basin is already challenging and expected to further exacerbate within the next decades. Currently, water demand levels are considerably increasing driven by growing irrigated (export) agriculture, population and energy demand which is in a large part sustained by hydropower. A coupling of potential water scarcity driven by climate change with a lack of water governance and high human vulnerabilities, bears strong conflict potentials with negative feedbacks for socio-economic development in the Santa basin and beyond. In this context, our coupled hydro-glacial economic impact model provides important support for future decision-making and long-term water management planning. However, uncertainties are relatively high (uncertainty range to be estimated) due to a lack of (good) hydro-climatic and socio-economic information at appropriate spatiotemporal scales. The presented model framework is potentially transferable to other high mountain catchments in the Tropical Andean region and beyond.

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Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11090883 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 883 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mahtsente Tadese ◽

Lalit Kumar ◽

Richard Koech

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Awash River Basin ◽

Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

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Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.1400082 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. e1400082 ◽

Cited By ~ 648

Author(s):

Benjamin I. Cook ◽

Toby R. Ault ◽

Jason E. Smerdon

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

American Southwest ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Historical Event ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Central Plains ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

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Difference and Linkage in Climate Change Modes from East and Central Asia at Multi-Time Scales

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1048223/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Simin Peng ◽

Yu Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Central Asia ◽

Time Scales ◽

Asian Summer Monsoon ◽

Severity Index ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Asian Summer ◽

Paleoclimate Records ◽

The Last Glacial

Abstract Previous studies argued that climate change modes from East and Central Asia (EA and CA) are out of phase at multi-time scales. However, in recent years, dry/wet changes in CA which contradict traditional views have provoked further discussion. The synchronization of rain and heat periods is a common climate phenomenon in most regions of East and Central Asia. In this paper, we selected EA and CA to carry out a comprehensive study of modern observations, paleoclimate records, and model simulations at multi-time scales. EOF analysis results of modern grid precipitation and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) demonstrate the synchronization of rain and heat periods in EA and the east of CA at the short-term timescale. Meanwhile, paleoclimate records indicate parallel dry/wet changes in EA and the east of CA since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), also reflecting the synchronization of rain and heat periods at long-term timescales triggered by the insolation. The climate mechanism of difference and linkage in climate change modes from EA and CA, under the framework of the synchronization of rain and heat periods, is analyzed by PMIP3 simulations between the LGM and Mid-Holocene (MH). Overall, we suggest that, in addition to the regional differences caused by different circulation systems (the westerlies and Asian summer monsoon), climate change modes in EA and CA universally have inter-regional connections affected by the synchronization of rain and heat periods at multi-time scales.

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Climate Change Beliefs And Vulnerability Among Farmers In The Upper Corn Belt

10.21203/rs.3.rs-660342/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mae A Davenport ◽

Amelia Kreiter ◽

Kate A. Brauman ◽

Bonnie Keeler ◽

J. Arbuckle ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Corn Belt ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Drought Vulnerability

Abstract Anticipatory water management must reflect not only future climatic conditions, but also the social and psychological dimensions of vulnerability that drive adaptation. Compared to the western U.S., farmers in the upper Corn Belt have had less exposure to extreme drought and have lower rates of irrigation adoption. If climate change threatens to increase drought frequency or severity in the Corn Belt, transitioning from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture would require systemic changes and significant financial investments. Knowing what drives perceptions and feelings of drought vulnerability will improve understanding and anticipation of farmer adaptation behaviors such as irrigation. We surveyed central Minnesota agricultural producers about their perceptions of water scarcity in two groundwater management areas where climate models show heightened variability in water supply during the growing season. We examined the influence of farmer beliefs about climate change, drought risk, farm sensitivity to drought, and adaptation capacity. We presented farmers with scenarios of drought severity derived from downscaled climate projections and asked farmers about their likelihood of adopting irrigation technologies or expanding irrigation extent. Findings indicate that many farmers feel vulnerable to climate and drought-related impacts, in part because they believe water scarcity is an imminent problem. Farmers believe humans are at least partially responsible for climate change, near-term droughts are likely, and their farms are particularly sensitive to drought stress.

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Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1916208117 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 117 (21) ◽

pp. 11328-11336 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Justin T. Martin ◽

Gregory T. Pederson ◽

Connie A. Woodhouse ◽

Edward R. Cook ◽

Gregory J. McCabe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Warm Season ◽

The United States ◽

Low Flow ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Regional Temperature ◽

Future Warming

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

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Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11101023 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1023 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yasir Latif ◽

Yaoming Ma ◽

Weiqiang Ma ◽

Sher Muhammad ◽

Muhammad Adnan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Western Himalayas ◽

Degree Day ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Runoff Model

In contrast to widespread glacier retreat evidenced globally, glaciers in the Karakoram region have exhibited positive mass balances and general glacier stability over the past decade. Snow and glacier meltwater from the Karakoram and the western Himalayas, which supplies the Indus River Basin, provide an essential source of water to more than 215 million people, either directly, as potable water, or indirectly, through hydroelectric generation and irrigation for crops. This study focuses on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) which combines the ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH). Specifically, we focus on the Gilgit River Basin (GRB) to inform more sustainable water use policy at the sub-basin scale. We employ two degree-day approaches, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) and Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to simulate runoff in the GRB during 2001–2012. The performance of SRM was poor during July and August, the period when glacier melt contribution typically dominates runoff. Consequently, SPHY outperformed SRM, likely attributable to SPHY’s ability to discriminate between glacier, snow, and rainfall contributions to runoff during the ablation period. The average simulated runoff revealed the prevalent snowmelt contribution as 62%, followed by the glacier melt 28% and rainfall 10% in GRB. We also assessed the potential impact of climate change on future water resources, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We estimate that summer flows are projected to increase by between 5.6% and 19.8% due to increased temperatures of between 0.7 and 2.6 °C over the period 2039–2070. If realized, increased summer flows in the region could prove beneficial for a range of sectors, but only over the short to medium term and if not associated with extreme events. Long-term projections indicate declining water resources in the region in terms of snow and glacier melt.

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Evaluation of regional droughts using monthly gridded precipitation for Korea

Journal of Hydroinformatics ◽

10.2166/hydro.2012.070 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 1036-1050 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Syed Zakir Hossein ◽

Han Man Shin ◽

Choi Gyewoon

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Kriging Interpolation ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Data Sets ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Gridded Data ◽

Data Set ◽

Available Water

This paper attempts to characterize regional drought using 0.5 degree reanalyzed GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Center) gauge-based gridded monthly precipitation data sets in Korea. Drought is a function of precipitation and long-term observed precipitation was performed to enhance this characterization. There are limited long-term records from each station, therefore, a global gridded data set has been employed. Before using this data, 10 corresponding grids with KMA (Korea Meteorology Administration) stations were validated through cross-correlations (0.93–0.99). The impacts of drought are dependent on its duration, severity and spatial extent. Drought occurs when a below average water availability persists and becomes regionally extensive. In this study, 66 GPCC gridded precipitations were employed to estimate the effective drought index along with the available water resource index. The results of the 10 KMA corresponding stations were as accurate as those of the global data. Consequently, gridded data are suitable for a monthly drought severity investigation. In addition, spatial distribution of drought and available water resources were exposed by kriging interpolation technique over Korea. Through this study, drought risk city Taebaek in Kangwon province was classified by its 2009 intensity of monthly precipitations, droughts and available water resources.

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