Mathematical modeling of the epidemic of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections processes (ARVI) in the Yaroslavl region

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Natalia Ur'evna Shirina ◽  
Tatiana Aleksandrovna Druzhinina ◽  
Elizaveta Sergeevna Shirina
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Process Time ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sick People ◽  
Respiratory Viral Infections ◽  
Short Time

In the structure of infectious diseases in the Yaroslavl region, more than 90 % are influenza and acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI). Influenza occupies a special place among human infectious diseases. This is due to its ability to epidemic and pandemic spread in a relatively short time. In this regard, scientific research on the analysis and forecasting of probable scenarios for the development of epidemic processes is of particular importance. The work used the data of the forms of the federal state statistical observation No. 2 “Information on infectious and parasitic diseases”. Fourier analysis was used to process time series. The significance of the mathematical model was checked using the Fisher test. The table of critical values of the Fisher criterion was used to assess the statistical significance, the significance level was taken equal to 0.05. Data processing was carried out using MS Excel 2013 software. During the study of the dynamics of the epidemic process, the trend of reducing the incidence of influenza and ARVI in the Yaroslavl region over the past 36 years has been determined. The dynamics of the incidence of influenza and ARVI in the Yaroslavl region over the past 36 years has a tendency to decrease. As a result of calculations, we obtained cyclical components with periods equal to 3 and 5 years. This is due to the accumulation of people who are not immune to these infections. Mathematical calculations have confirmed the values of seasonal fluctuations in 6 and 12 months. The maximum number of sick people is recorded in the winter-spring period (February — March). In accordance with the calculations, a decrease in the incidence of influenza and ARVI in the Yaroslavl region is expected in the period from 2020 to 2022: in 2020 the number of sick people (per 100 thousand population) is predicted to be 20 962.64, in 2021 — 18 138.58.

Consensus ‘Interferon therapy for patients with influenza, SARS and COVID19’

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
N. D. Yushchuk ◽  
I. V. Maev ◽  
A. L. Vertkin
Keyword(s):  
General Practitioner ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Secondary Prevention ◽  
Interferon Therapy ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Outpatient Clinics ◽  
Primary Contact ◽  
Respiratory Viral Infections

According to the who, the share of acute respiratory viral infections (амма? and influenza) accounts for about 90–95% of all infectious diseases; in russia, influenza and arvi take up to 40% of the total duration of official disability, which determines the significance of this pathology. At the same time, the primary contact of the overwhelming majority of patients with suspected arvi and influenza occurs with a therapist or general practitioner of polyclinics. The proposed consensus of experts is intended to systematize the known approaches to the diagnosis, treatment and secondary prevention of influenza, acute respiratory viral infections and community-acquired pneumonia for their use at outpatient clinics. The schemes of using interferon therapy for arvi and influenza are considered in detail.

scholarly journals Environmental and social influences on emerging infectious diseases: past, present and future

2004 ◽  
Vol 359 (1447) ◽  
pp. 1049-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. McMichael
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Human Ecology ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Clinical Medicine ◽  
Homo Sapiens ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Natural World ◽  
Major Transitions ◽  
The Past

During the processes of human population dispersal around the world over the past 50 000–100 000 years, along with associated cultural evolution and inter–population contact and conflict, there have been several major transitions in the relationships of Homo sapiens with the natural world, animate and inanimate. Each of these transitions has resulted in the emergence of new or unfamiliar infectious diseases. The three great historical transitions since the initial advent of agriculture and livestock herding, from ca . 10 000 years ago, occurred when: (i) early agrarian–based settlements enabled sylvatic enzootic microbes to make contact with Homo sapiens ; (ii) early Eurasian civilizations (such as the Greek and Roman empires, China and south Asia) came into military and commercial contact, ca . 3000–2000 years ago, swapping their dominant infections; and (iii) European expansionism, over the past five centuries, caused the transoceanic spread of often lethal infectious diseases. This latter transition is best known in relation to the conquest of the Americas by Spanish conquistadores , when the inadvertent spread of measles, smallpox and influenza devastated the Amerindian populations. Today, we are living through the fourth of these great transitional periods. The contemporary spread and increased lability of various infectious diseases, new and old, reflect the combined and increasingly widespread impacts of demographic, environmental, behavioural, technological and other rapid changes in human ecology. Modern clinical medicine has, via blood transfusion, organ transplantation, and the use of hypodermic syringes, created new opportunities for microbes. These have contributed to the rising iatrogenic problems of hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS and several other viral infections. Meanwhile, the injudicious use of antibiotics has been a rare instance of human action actually increasing ‘biodiversity’. Another aspect of this fourth transition is that modern hyper–hygienic living restricts microbial exposure in early life. This, in the 1950s, may have contributed to an epidemic of more serious, disabling, poliomyelitis, affecting older children than those affected in earlier, more endemic decades. As with previous human–microbe transitions, a new equilibrial state may lie ahead. However, it certainly will not entail a world free of infectious diseases. Any mature, sustainable, human ecology must come to terms with both the need for, and the needs of, the microbial species that help to make up the interdependent system of life on Earth. Humans and microbes are not ‘at war’; rather, both parties are engaged in amoral, self–interested, coevolutionary struggle. We need to understand better, and therefore anticipate, the dynamics of that process.

scholarly journals The Role of Vitamin D in Respiratory Viral Infections and Other Infectious Diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (E) ◽  
pp. 1109-1114
Author(s):  
S. B. Dyussenova ◽  
M. Y. Gordiyenko ◽  
M. S. Askarov ◽  
G. K. Tuleuova ◽  
S. B. Suleimenova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Allergic Rhinitis ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Bronchial Asthma ◽  
Current Literature ◽  
Clinical Studies ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Respiratory Viral Infections ◽  
The Relationship

Clinical studies and meta-analyzes have shown that reduced levels of 25 (OH) D in the blood contribute to impaired immunity and stimulate excessive inflammation that adversely affects the health of children: the risk of developing bronchial asthma (BA), obstructive bronchitis, and allergic rhinitis increases. The main purpose of this review is to summarize the current literature data on the relationship between vitamin D, VRI and other infectious diseases with a clinical example.

scholarly journals Scientometric trends for coronaviruses and other emerging viral infections

GigaScience ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dima Kagan ◽  
Jacob Moran-Gilad ◽  
Michael Fire
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Full Understanding ◽  
The Past ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background COVID-19 is the most rapidly expanding coronavirus outbreak in the past 2 decades. To provide a swift response to a novel outbreak, prior knowledge from similar outbreaks is essential. Results Here, we study the volume of research conducted on previous coronavirus outbreaks, specifically SARS and MERS, relative to other infectious diseases by analyzing >35 million articles from the past 20 years. Our results demonstrate that previous coronavirus outbreaks have been understudied compared with other viruses. We also show that the research volume of emerging infectious diseases is very high after an outbreak and decreases drastically upon the containment of the disease. This can yield inadequate research and limited investment in gaining a full understanding of novel coronavirus management and prevention. Conclusions Independent of the outcome of the current COVID-19 outbreak, we believe that measures should be taken to encourage sustained research in the field.

3. Drugs as medicines

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Les Iversen
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Mental Illness ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Autoimmune Disorders ◽  
Contraceptive Pill ◽  
The Past ◽  
Medical Advances

‘Drugs as medicines’ highlights the principles behind the successful use of medicines to cure or ameliorate the symptoms of many illnesses. These range from infectious diseases, such as bacterial and viral infections; innate conditions, such as mental illness or autoimmune disorders; or those caused by lifestyle, such as coronary heart disease. Despite successes, problems still remain. Many bacteria and viruses are rapidly evolving resistance to drug strategies. Also, those in the developing world, who are most at risk from infection, often benefit least from drugs due to prohibitive costs and reduced investment in treatment. One of the most important medical advances in the past one hundred years has been the contraceptive pill.

scholarly journals Immunity and Viral Infections: Modulating Antiviral Response via CRISPR–Cas Systems

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1373
Author(s):  
Sergey Brezgin ◽  
Anastasiya Kostyusheva ◽  
Ekaterina Bayurova ◽  
Elena Volchkova ◽  
Vladimir Gegechkori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Immune Responses ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Antiviral Agents ◽  
Innate Immune ◽  
Host Factors ◽  
Innate Immune Responses ◽  
Host Interactions ◽  
Translational Studies ◽  
Short Time

Viral infections cause a variety of acute and chronic human diseases, sometimes resulting in small local outbreaks, or in some cases spreading across the globe and leading to global pandemics. Understanding and exploiting virus–host interactions is instrumental for identifying host factors involved in viral replication, developing effective antiviral agents, and mitigating the severity of virus-borne infectious diseases. The diversity of CRISPR systems and CRISPR-based tools enables the specific modulation of innate immune responses and has contributed impressively to the fields of virology and immunology in a very short time. In this review, we describe the most recent advances in the use of CRISPR systems for basic and translational studies of virus–host interactions.

scholarly journals Scientometric Trends for Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Viral Infections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dima Kagan ◽  
Jacob Moran-Gilad ◽  
Michael Fire
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Full Understanding ◽  
The Past ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Very High

AbstractCOVID-19 is the most rapidly expanding coronavirus outbreak in the past two decades. To provide a swift response to a novel outbreak, prior knowledge from similar outbreaks is essential. Here, we study the volume of research conducted on previous coronavirus outbreaks, specifically SARS and MERS, relative to other infectious diseases by analyzing over 35 million papers from the last 20 years. Our results demonstrate that previous coronavirus outbreaks have been understudied compared to other viruses. We also show that the research volume of emerging infectious diseases is very high after an outbreak and drops drastically upon the containment of the disease. This can yield inadequate research and limited investment in gaining a full understanding of novel coronavirus management and prevention. Independent of the outcome of the current COVID-19 outbreak, we believe that measures should be taken to encourage sustained research in the field.

Acute respiratory viral infections: Topical issues of diagnosis, prevention and treatment in therapeutic practice

2016 ◽  
Vol 88 (11) ◽  
pp. 76-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
D I Trukhan ◽  
A L Mazurov ◽  
L A Rechapova
Keyword(s):  
Viral Infections ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Food Allergies ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Vasomotor Rhinitis ◽  
Therapeutic Practice ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
Respiratory Viral Infections

Objective: to assess the efficacy and safety of the medication Grippferon with loratadine for the prevention of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) and influenza during the epidemics. Materials and methods: This study included 103 patients (67 men and 36 women) aged 18 to 52 years (mean age 35.3±3.2 years). During the first visit (september 2015), we collected patient history data on the average rate of ARVI and influenza for the past three years, the disease duration and its symptoms, presence of concomitant allergic pathologies (such as vasomotor rhinitis, hay fever and urticaria) and food allergies. Appropriate recommendations for the medication use were given to patients. During the second visit (may 2016), we collected follow-up cards and then analyzed the findings. Results: 33 percent of the patients were fully compliant with the medication dosage regimen. In the first group (68 people with a history of one-two ARVI cases in the autumn-winter period for the past three years) the average number of ARVI cases in previous years was 1,53±0,23, by comparing with 0,69±0,16 (p

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document