PERNERAPAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARE PADA KASUS INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA

Using the regression model, a method that accommodates variables related to each other is called the simultaneous equation method. The study aims to determine the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate and model simultaneous equations towards the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia using Two-Stage Least Square. Data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the website of Statistics of Indonesia. Findings on the simultaneous equation model with two-stage least squares reveal that variables that significantly affect inflation are the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate and money supply. At the same time, variables that significantly affect the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate are inflation and money supply. The predictive value using the inflation and rupiah exchange rate equation indicates that the obtained MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value does not exceed 50%. In conclusion, the prediction result using the inflation and Indonesia rupiah exchange rate equation is accurate.

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ANALISIS PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN UANG DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam ◽

10.24815/jped.v5i1.14564 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Arwin Arwin ◽

Said Muhammad ◽

Raja Masbar

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

World Bank ◽

Money Demand ◽

National Income ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Real Income ◽

Least Square ◽

Two Stage ◽

Data Processing Method

This study aims to determine the determinants of the money demand and money supply function in Indonesia. To formulate the equation between money demand (Md) and money supply (Ms) using LM function by looking at the effect of real income and interest rate. The data in this study constitutes Indonesia's economic data from 1986 to 2015 drawn from secondary data sources such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), International Financial Statistics (IFS), International Monetary Funds (IMF) and World Bank . The Data Processing method used is to use the equations and completed with Two Stage Least Square. The results showed that the balance occurred at the national income level of 277559.05 billion Rupiah with an interest rate of 7.05%. Keywords: Demand and Supply of Money, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Inflation, and Exchange Rate. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk megetahui determinan dari fungsi permintaan uang dan penawaran uang di Indonesia. Untuk merumuskan persamaan antara permintaan uang (Md) dengan penawaran uang (Ms) menggunakan fungsi LM dengan melihat pengaruh pendapatan riil dan tingkat suku bunga. Data dalam penelitian ini merupakan data perekonomian Indonesia dari tahun 1986 – 2015 yang diambilkan dari sumber data sekunder baik seperti Bank Indonesia(BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Internasional Financial Statistics (IFS), International Monetary Funds ( IMF) dan World Bank. Metode Pengolahan datayang digunakan adalah menggunakan persamaan simultan dan diselesaikan dengan Two Stage Least Square. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan terjadi pada tingkat pendapatan nasional sebesar 277559.05 milyar Rupiah dengan tingkat bunga sebesar 7,05%.

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ANALISIS INTERAKSI KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam ◽

10.24815/jped.v5i2.15080 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 112-123

Author(s):

Muhammad Akhyar ◽

Sofyan Syahnur ◽

Asmawati Asmawati

Keyword(s):

Fiscal Policy ◽

Interest Rate ◽

World Bank ◽

National Income ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Money Market ◽

Least Square ◽

Two Stage ◽

The Government

The Purpose of this research is to determine the balance of income and interest rate in both money market and goods market in improving economic performance shown through some macro economic indicators. The method used is simultaneous equation method and completed with Two Stage Least Square. The data in this study constitutes Indonesia's economic data from 1986 to 2015 drawn from secondary data sources such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and World Bank . The results show that the balance occurs at the national income level of 211.243,69 billion Rupiah with an interest rate of 3.86% and the more dominant fiscal policy currently applied in the economy. This IS-LM model can help the government in making policy to predict what happens to outputs and the aggregate interest rate if the government decides to increase government spending and increase the money supply. Keywords: Aggregate output, interest rate, fiscal policy, monetary policy, good market, money market, IS-LM. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keseimbangan pendapatan dan tingkat bunga baik di pasar uang maupun pasar barang dalam meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian yang ditunjukkan melalui beberapa indikator makro ekonomi. Metode yang digunakan menggunakan persamaan simultan dan diselesaikan dengan Two Stage Least Square. Data dalam penelitian ini merupakan data perekonomian Indonesia dari tahun 1986 – 2015 yang diambilkan dari sumber data sekunder baik seperti Bank Indonesia(BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan World Bank. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan terjadi pada tingkat pendapatan nasional sebesar Rp211.243,69 milyar dengan tingkat bunga sebesar 3.86% dan kebijakan fiskal lebih dominan saat ini diterapkan dalam perekonomian. Model IS-LM ini dapat membantu pemerintah dalam membuat kebijakan untuk memprediksikan yang terjadi pada output dan tingkat bunga agregat jika pemerintah memutuskan untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran pemerintah maupun meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar.

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DAMPAK DEVALUASI YUAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PENDEKATAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan ◽

10.30908/bilp.v12i1.234 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 117-134 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Febria Ramana ◽

Nasrudin Nasrudin

Keyword(s):

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Equation Model ◽

Least Square ◽

Simultaneous Equation Model ◽

Two Stage ◽

Simulation Scenario ◽

Economic Shock ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Trade And Investment

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak devaluasi yuan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan skenario simulasi model persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasil dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa devaluasi yuan berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia melalui jalur perdagangan dan investasi. Pada blok perdagangan, devaluasi yuan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke negara lain mengalami penurunan, terutama ekspor ke China karena devaluasi yuan lebih besar dibandingkan rupiah. Hal ini membuat produk China relatif lebih murah dibandingkan Indonesia. Pada blok investasi, total investasi meningkat karena investor beralih dari China ke Indonesia yang didorong tingkat pengembalian modal di China menurun. Sementara itu, pada blok moneter, nilai rupiah dan PDB Indonesia menurun akibat penurunan net ekspor lebih besar dibandingkan peningkatan FDI. Devaluasi rupiah pun memicu imported inflation. Secara keseluruhan, devaluasi yuan berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap China, terutama dalam perdagangan. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor. This paper examines and provides an analysis regarding the impact of an economic shock, yuan devaluation, on the Indonesian economy. We analyze a simulation scenario by using simultaneous equation model with two-stage least square (2SLS) method. Empirical findings exhibit that shock has the significant impact on Indonesian economy through both of trade and investment transmissions. In trade block, Indonesian export to China has the most decreasing rather than others countries because of yuan more decrease than rupiah. In investment block, a total of investment gets the impact to rise, particularly in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, caused by decreasing wealth of foreign investors in China. Meanwhile, in the monetary block, the value of rupiah and Indonesian GDP simultaneously get the impact to decline, whereas yuan devalution leads Indonesian inflation to rise. Therefore, it is essential for the government to decrease Indonesian dependence on China, particularly in trade block. Some options which government should implement are market diversification and increasing export products quality.

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DETERMINASI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽

10.25105/me.v22i3.3200 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 261

Author(s):

Ezra Sihombing ◽

Budi Santosa

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Composite Index ◽

Least Square ◽

Goodness Of Fit Test ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Macro Variables

<em>Capital market in Indonesia is an emerging markets which in its development is very vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions in general. There are many macro variables that affecting the fluctuation of Jakarta composite index (JCI). So, the researcher are interested to search the factors affecting the Jakarta composite index (JCI) in Indonesia stock exchange (IDX). The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between four macroeconomic variables: BIRATE, INFLATION, MONEY SUPPLY, and EXCHANGE RATE against JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX . The data for assessing this research are acquired from monthly data from January 2000 to December 2012 report by Bank Indonesia. This research uses ordinary least square (OLS) to see any indication of relationship. This study also use a Classical Assumptions test and Goodness of Fit test to detect the significance of the data for further analysis .The research shows that there is no effect from BIRATE and INFLATION to influence JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX (JCI). It’s means that anticipated macro variables can’t be used to predict the movement of the JCI. While, MONEY SUPPLY and EXCHANGE RATE variable has significant effect on the movement of the JCI. This implies that in MONEY SUPPLY and EXCHANGE RATE is a good indicator for predicting the movement of the JCI</em>.

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PENGARUH FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL TERHADAP PEMBIAYAAN BERMASALAH PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH (BUS) DAN BANK PEMBIAYAAN RAKYAT SYARIAH (BPRS)

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v1i3.7710 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 833

Author(s):

Sherly Yolanda ◽

Ariusni Ariusni

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Commercial Bank ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Least Square ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Return On Assets ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Capital Adequacy Ratio

This study was conducted to examine the factors affecting Non Performing Financing (NPF) in Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Rural Bank in Indonesia such as: Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return On Assets (ROA), Inflation, and Exchange Rate. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series of monthly data from 2015 to 2018.The method used are: (1) Ordinanry Least Square (OLS), (2) Classical Assumption Test which is processed through Eviews 8.0 application. The results of the study show that (1) Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) has a negative and significant effect on Non Performing Finansial (NPF) on Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Rural Bank (2) Return On Assets (ROA) has a negative and not significant effect on Non Performing Finansial (NPF) on Sharia Commercial Bank and on Sharia Rural Bank has a positive and significant effect. (3) inflation has a negatif and not significant effect on Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Rural Bank. (4) Exchange Rate has a negatif and not significant effect on Non Performing Finansial (NPF) on Sharia Commercial Bank and on Sharia Rural Bank has a positive and not significant effect

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Impact of Coronavirus and Macroeconomic Indicators on Sharia Obligation with Simultaneous Model

Signifikan Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ◽

10.15408/sjie.v10i2.21084 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 291-298

Author(s):

Anton Bawono ◽

Mohammad Rofiuddin ◽

Rifda Nabila ◽

Saiful Anwar

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Equation Model ◽

Least Square ◽

Analysis Method ◽

Disease Case ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Government ◽

Simultaneous Model

This study examines the macroeconomic variables exchange rate and BI rate in collaboration with the Coronavirus Disease case against Sukuk. In addition, this study also examines the exchange rate influenced by the BI rate variable and the case of Coronavirus Disease. The data analysis method in this study uses a simultaneous equation model Two-Stage Least Square. This study found that the exchange rate affects the demand for Sukuk while the BI rate does not affect it. But what is surprising is that when the Coronavirus Disease 2019 case occurred, it did not affect the demand for Sukuk. This study also found that the exchange rate is influenced by the BI rate and the case of Coronavirus Disease. The contribution of this research is that when the government cannot intervene in the exchange rate, which can affect the demand for Sukuk, it can be done by intervening in the BI rate.JEL Classification: C30, G12, O10How to Cite:Bawono, A., Rofiuddin, M., Nabila, R., & Anwar, S. (2021). Impact of Coronavirus and Macroeconomic Indicators on Sharia Obligation with Simultaneous Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 291-298. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i2.21084.

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SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan ◽

10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 157-180

Author(s):

Najia Helmiah ◽

Nasrudin

Keyword(s):

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Equation Model ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Least Square ◽

Tariff Rate ◽

Two Stage ◽

Import Tariff ◽

Demand Fulfillment ◽

Total Welfare ◽

Local Farmers

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13

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The factors affecting the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.29259/jep.v18i1.9826 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 37-46

Author(s):

Nadya Carissa ◽

Rifki Khoirudin

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Money Supply ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Balance Of Payments ◽

Analysis Method ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Multiple Regression Models ◽

The Government

This study to determine the money supply, interest rates, inflation, and imports toward rupiah exchange rates. The analysis method in this study used a quantitative approach that applies multiple regression models. Data used secondary data in the form of time series during the period of August 2016 until June 2019. The finding's results show that jointly money supply, interest rates, inflation, and imports have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. While partially, the variable of money supply, interest rates, and imports has a positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. But the inflation rate has an insignificant effect on the Rupiah exchange rate. From the results of this study the government is expected to control the money supply and maintain the balance of payments by minimizing the amount of imports.

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Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi dan Net Ekspor Indonesia Menggunakan Model Simultan

Jurnal Ekobistek ◽

10.35134/ekobistek.v10i2.115 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 136-145

Author(s):

Rina Susanti ◽

Engla Desnim Silvia ◽

Deni Amelia

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Government Spending ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Household Consumption ◽

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Equation Model ◽

Least Square ◽

Net Exports

This study aims to analyze 1) the effect of household consumption, investment, government spending and net exports on Indonesia's economic growth, 2) the effect of interest rates, inflation and economic growth on investment, 3) the effect of inflation and foreign income on Indonesia's net exports. The type of data used is quarterly secondary data from 2015-2020. Sources of data obtained from BPS, BI and Bappenas. This research uses simultaneous equation model analysis in the form of two stage least square (2SLS), identification test and reduce form. The results of this study are 1). household consumption, investment, and net exports have a significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth. However, government spending has no significant effect on economic growth. 2). interest rates and economic growth have a significant effect on investment. However, the inflation rate has no significant effect on investment. 3) the exchange rate has a significant effect on net exports but foreign income has no significant effect. Household consumption is the largest supporting sector for economic growth of 70% which is of great concern. So that a policy is needed to restore the economy by stimulating people's purchasing power.

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ANALISIS CROWDING OUT EFFECT PENERBITAN OBLIGASINEGARA: STUDIKASUS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PERIODE 1970 - 2003

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.23917/jep.v7i1.3994 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 91

Author(s):

Joko Waluyo

Keyword(s):

Research Design ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Private Investment ◽

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Least Square ◽

Equation Modeling ◽

Crowding Out ◽

Main Subject ◽

Two Stage ◽

Government Bonds

The main subject of this research are to proof what issuing government bonds give impact to crowding out effect for private investment. The research design used simultaneous equation modeling, consisting of 17 behavioral equation and 18 identity equation with 6 blocks. Behavioral equation with estimated by tsls (two stage least square). This study use secondary data from Indonesian economy since 1970 until 2003. The econometric test to result BLUE estimator. The Result is issuing government bonds don't cause crowding out effect to private investment.

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