scholarly journals SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-180
Author(s):  
Najia Helmiah ◽  
Nasrudin
Keyword(s):  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Tariff Rate ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Import Tariff ◽  
Demand Fulfillment ◽  
Total Welfare ◽  
Local Farmers

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari  IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi   Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market  JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13

scholarly journals DAMPAK DEVALUASI YUAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PENDEKATAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Febria Ramana ◽  
Nasrudin Nasrudin
Keyword(s):  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Simulation Scenario ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade And Investment

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak devaluasi yuan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan skenario simulasi model persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasil dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa devaluasi yuan berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia melalui jalur perdagangan dan investasi. Pada blok perdagangan, devaluasi yuan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke negara lain mengalami penurunan, terutama ekspor ke China karena devaluasi yuan lebih besar dibandingkan rupiah. Hal ini membuat produk China relatif lebih murah dibandingkan Indonesia. Pada blok investasi, total investasi meningkat karena investor beralih dari China ke Indonesia yang didorong tingkat pengembalian modal di China menurun. Sementara itu, pada blok moneter, nilai rupiah dan PDB Indonesia menurun akibat penurunan net ekspor lebih besar dibandingkan peningkatan FDI. Devaluasi rupiah pun memicu imported inflation. Secara keseluruhan, devaluasi yuan berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap China, terutama dalam perdagangan. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor. This paper examines and provides an analysis regarding the impact of an economic shock, yuan devaluation, on the Indonesian economy. We analyze a simulation scenario by using simultaneous equation model with two-stage least square (2SLS) method. Empirical findings exhibit that shock has the significant impact on Indonesian economy through both of trade and investment transmissions. In trade block, Indonesian export to China has the most decreasing rather than others countries because of yuan more decrease than rupiah. In investment block, a total of investment gets the impact to rise, particularly in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, caused by decreasing wealth of foreign investors in China.   Meanwhile, in the monetary block, the value of rupiah and Indonesian GDP simultaneously get the impact to decline, whereas yuan devalution leads Indonesian inflation to rise. Therefore, it is essential for the government to decrease Indonesian dependence on China, particularly in trade block. Some options which government should implement are market diversification and increasing export products quality.

scholarly journals PERNERAPAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARE PADA KASUS INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
Rahmawati Yusuf ◽  
Resmawan Resmawan ◽  
Boby Rantow Payu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Rate Equation ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Factors Affecting

Using the regression model, a method that accommodates variables related to each other is called the simultaneous equation method. The study aims to determine the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate and model simultaneous equations towards the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia using Two-Stage Least Square. Data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the website of Statistics of Indonesia. Findings on the simultaneous equation model with two-stage least squares reveal that variables that significantly affect inflation are the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate and money supply. At the same time, variables that significantly affect the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate are inflation and money supply. The predictive value using the inflation and rupiah exchange rate equation indicates that the obtained MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value does not exceed 50%. In conclusion, the prediction result using the inflation and Indonesia rupiah exchange rate equation is accurate.

scholarly journals Exploring relationships among recall effectiveness indicators in the US meat and poultry industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianbin Yu ◽  
Neal H. Hooker
Keyword(s):  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Least Square Estimator ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Food Recalls ◽  
Completion Times

Food recalls need to balance speed and completeness, consumer and firm interests and thus meet managerial and social goals. Effective recalls play a vital role in protecting public health and reducing economic consequences. This paper develops a simultaneous equation model to explore the relationships among three effectiveness indicators; discovery time, completion time and recovery rate. A three-stage least square estimator is applied to control for endogeneity among these indicators. The results suggest that higher recovery rates are associated with shorter discovery times. Longer discovery times led to longer completion times. Longer completion times elicited higher recovery rates. Recalls with high risk to human health had shorter discovery times but longer completion times and lower recovery rates. Recalls issued by large plants had shorter discovery times. Large recalls and national distribution channels negatively impacted discovery times. Compared to other stakeholders, government agencies took longer to discover the problem leading to a recall.

scholarly journals Labor Absorption and Its Impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Made Ika Prastyadewi ◽  
Agus Suman ◽  
Devanto Shasta Pratomo
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Positive Effect

The objective of this study is to examine the determinants of labor absorption in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector and its impact on Gross Regional Domestic Product/GRDP at Bali Province. This study is important due to the fact that the GRDP in this sector is the highest compared to other sector but the labor absorption is lower than the agriculture sector. This study used panel data comprising 9 regencies/cities at Bali Province in the period 2003-2009 including fixed effect model and simultaneous equation model of Two-Stage Least Square. The results showed that GRDP, working age population, and the minimum wage have positive effect on employment, while the educated unemployment has no significant effect on the employment in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition, increases in employment and workers productivity have positive and significant effects the GRDP in the trade, hotel and restaurant sector at Bali Province.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KEMISKINAN DI SUMATERA BARAT

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 769
Author(s):  
Lili Manaulisda Fitri ◽  
Hasdi Aimon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

This study aims to explain the determinants of economic growth and poverty in West Sumatra. This study using Simultaneous Equation Model to determine the effect of exogenous variables on endogenous variable, the analysis uses Indirect Least Square (ILS) method. This study uses a data panel (cross section and time series) sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of West Sumatra. The analysis results show that labor, investment, and unemployment has a significant effect on economic growth, otherthat investment, unemployment, and education has a significant effect on poverty, and poverty has a significant effect on economic growth.

scholarly journals The Political Economy of Tariff Formation in Vietnam

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-53
Author(s):  
Yoon Heo ◽  
Tran N. Kien
Keyword(s):  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Trade Protection ◽  
Import Penetration ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Least Square Estimator ◽  
Industry Growth ◽  
Endogenous Protection ◽  
Tariff Rates

Using a simultaneous equation model of tariffs and impurts, this paper empirically investigates the determinants of tariff rates applied in Vietnam using two-digit ISIC data over the 2001-2006 period. This paper extends the findings of previous studies in Several ways. First, there has been no study thus far conducted that has attempted to apply the endogenous theory of tariffs to explain tariff formation in developing countries, including Vietnam. Second, imports and trade protection are simultaneously modeled using the two-stage least square estimator. Third, this study employed an up-to-date panel dataset that was recently made available in Vietnam, which allowed us to measure the dynamic interactions among trade flows. industry characteristics, and trade protection. The results of this paper showed that tariffs are frequently high in industries with a small number of firms, large employment size, low import penetration, low industry growth rate, and less capital stock. Therefore, the findings of our study on Vietnam provide further evidence favoring the theory of endogenous protection.

scholarly journals ZAKAT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS OF BANGKA BELITUNG TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2030

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-278
Author(s):  
Eka Fitriyanti
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Decent Work ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

This study aims to analyze the zakat and economic development of Bangka Belitung towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. This program is agreed by various countries in the United Nations (UN) forum. There are 17 targets to be achieved in this program, which is the first target and the eighth target of alleviating poverty in all its forms in all places; And promote the sustainability of sustainable and inclusive economic growth, full and productive employment opportunities, and decent work for all. Both targets can make every region encouraged to think about the right policies to achieve the target of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. The research method uses simultaneous equation model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) because the variables studied are related to each other. The variables studied are zakat and economic development which is represented by income per capita, poverty, and unemployment. The results of this study indicate that the variable of zakat has a significant positive effect on the economic development variables, namely income per capita and unemployment in Bangka Belitung while the poverty variable has a negative effect.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTERAKSI KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-123
Author(s):  
Muhammad Akhyar ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur ◽  
Asmawati Asmawati
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
World Bank ◽  
National Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
The Government

 The Purpose of this research is to determine the balance of income and interest rate in both money market and goods market in improving economic performance shown through some macro economic indicators. The method used is simultaneous equation method and completed with Two Stage Least Square. The data in this study constitutes Indonesia's economic data from 1986 to 2015 drawn from secondary data sources such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and World Bank . The results show that the balance occurs at the national income level of 211.243,69 billion Rupiah with an interest rate of 3.86% and the more dominant fiscal policy currently applied in the economy. This IS-LM model can help the government in making policy to predict what happens to outputs and the aggregate interest rate if the government decides to increase government spending and increase the money supply.  Keywords: Aggregate output, interest rate, fiscal policy, monetary policy, good market, money market, IS-LM.  ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keseimbangan pendapatan dan tingkat bunga baik di pasar uang maupun pasar barang dalam meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian yang ditunjukkan melalui beberapa indikator makro ekonomi. Metode yang digunakan menggunakan persamaan simultan dan diselesaikan dengan Two Stage Least Square. Data dalam penelitian ini merupakan data perekonomian Indonesia dari tahun 1986 – 2015 yang diambilkan dari sumber data sekunder baik seperti Bank Indonesia(BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan World Bank. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan terjadi pada tingkat pendapatan nasional sebesar Rp211.243,69  milyar dengan tingkat bunga sebesar 3.86% dan kebijakan fiskal lebih dominan saat ini diterapkan dalam perekonomian. Model IS-LM ini dapat membantu pemerintah dalam membuat kebijakan untuk memprediksikan yang terjadi pada output dan tingkat bunga agregat jika pemerintah memutuskan untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran pemerintah maupun meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar.

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