SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13

Import Tariffs and Informal Labour Market: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis for Turkey

From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.

NORTH–SOUTH ASYMMETRY IN TARIFF BARGAINING: A BLESSING FOR THE URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT?

In this study, North–South asymmetries are incorporated into a general equilibrium model to re-examine tariff bargaining. The asymmetric two-country model indicates that an import tariff charged by the North generates positive externalities that ameliorate structural unemployment in the South. The findings of this study yield two critical respects. First, the consideration of the urban unemployment in the South may reverse the consensus that a reciprocal tariff concession benefits both of the negotiators. Second and hence, this suggests that developing countries may bargain with opponents by manipulating second-best tariffs.

Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

We use microdata collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff pass-through is much higher than exchange rate pass-through. Chinese exporters did not lower their dollar prices by much, despite the recent appreciation of the dollar. By contrast, US exporters significantly lowered prices affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs. In US stores, the price impact is more limited, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs’ incidence has fallen in large part on US firms. (JEL E31, F13, F14, F31, L11)

Customs tariff reforms in Mongolia

Mongolia has been pursuing a free trade policy since the transition to a market economy, and today, with a sharp increase in imports and a boom in raw materials exports, domestic production has fallen, and the country became overly dependent on mining products. Therefore, there is an urgent need to review the methods for implementing foreign trade policy, to study their optimal use and update them effectively. This study examines how Mongolia’s import tariff regulations have been reforming since the transition to a market economy, and discusses some potential impacts of the import tariff reform on the Mongolian economy. Монгол Улсын импортын гаалийн тарифын шинэчлэл Хураангуй: Монгол Улс зах зээлийн эдийн засгийн харилцаанд шилжсэн үеэс чөлөөт худалдааны бодлого баримталсаар ирсэн бөгөөд өнөөдөр импортын урсгал эрс нэмэгдэж, түүхий эдийн экспорт хөгжсөнөөр дотоодын үйлдвэрлэл уналтад орсон, уул уурхайн бүтээгдэхүүнээс хэт хамааралтай улс болжээ. Иймд гадаад худалдааны бодлогыг хэрэгжүүлэх арга хэрэгслүүдийг эргэн харах, тэдгээрийг хэрхэн оновчтой хэрэглэх, шинэчлэх зэрэг асуудлыг судлах зайлшгүй шаардлага бий болоод байна. Энэхүү ажлын хүрээнд Монгол Улс зах зээлийн эдийн засгийн харилцаанд шилжсэн үеэс өнөөг хүртэл импортын гаалийн тарифын бодлого зохицуулалтын шинэчлэл хэрхэн хийгдсэн талаар судалж, импортын гаалийн тарифыг шинэчилснээр Монгол Улсын эдийн засагт үзүүлэх зарим үр нөлөөг авч үзсэн. Түлхүүр үгс: гадаад худалдааны бодлого; импортын гаалийн тарифын бодлого, зохицуулалт; нэн тааламжтай тариф; ДХБ-тай тохирсон тарифын дээд хэмжээ; тарифын шинжилгээ.

International Trade and the Propagation of Merger Waves

Cross-border merger activity is growing in importance. We map the global trade network each year from 1989 to 2016 and compare it to cross-border and domestic merger activity. Trade-weighted merger activity in trading partner countries has statistically and economically significant explanatory power for the likelihood that a given country will be in a merger wave state, at both the cross-border and domestic levels, even controlling for its own lagged merger activity. The role of trade as a channel for transmitting merger waves is confirmed using import tariff cuts and trade sanctions as instruments to mitigate endogeneity. Overall, the full trade network helps our understanding of merger waves and how merger activity propagate across borders.