scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: A Panel Study on Pakistan’s Trading Partners

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Jalil Khan ◽  
Parvez Azim ◽  
Shabib Haider Syed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Domestic Currency ◽  
Demand Functions ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of domestic and foreign currency-valued exchange rate volatility on the export and import demand functions with reference to Pakistan’s trading partners. We use GARCH-based exchange rate volatilities and the least-squares dummy variable technique with fixed-effects estimation to measure the volatility impact on both demand functions. The study evaluates a series of exchange rates from 1970:01 to 2009:12 to compare the long-run impact of volatility with that of the short run. The results show that, when Pakistan employed the US dollar as the vehicle currency with its trading partners, volatility discouraged both imports and exports. In contrast, both the import and export demand functions remained unaffected by volatility distortions when Pakistan traded with its developing partners using bilateral exchange rates valued in domestic currency terms. In policy terms, this implies that Pakistan should opt for direct domestic currency when trading with middle- and low-income countries.

A hybrid approach to exchange rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangfeng Zhang ◽  
Ian Marsh ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macro News ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rates Volatility

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the impact of information, both public macro news and private information, on exchange rate volatility in an integrated framework. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply real-time data of macro announcements and high-frequency trading data (German Deutsche Mark to US dollar, DEM/USD, from 1 May to 31August 1996) to GARCH models and examine various model specifications. Findings – Data analysis demonstrates real-time macro news and market makers’ private information both have a significant impact on exchange rate volatility, but there is no interaction between macro and micro information in the information transmission process. Originality/value – This study contributes to empirical hybrid studies of examining exchange rates volatility, which is in line with literature that combine both macro and micro fundamentals in examining exchange rates variation. Particularly, a key element of this study is to use a microstructure fundamental variable, namely, order flow, to capture private information in an exchange rate volatility study.

scholarly journals The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARC AUBOIN ◽  
MICHELE RUTA
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between exchange rates and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments on international trade flows. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production (e.g. the prevalence of small firms), and the degree of economic integration across countries. The second issue involves exchange rate misalignments, which are predicted to have short-run effects in models with price rigidities. However, the exact impact depends on a number of features, such as the pricing strategy of firms engaging in international trade and the importance of global production networks. Trade effects of currency misalignments are predicted to disappear in the long-run, unless an economy is characterized by other relevant distortions. Empirical results broadly confirm these theoretical predictions.

The volatility of tourism demand and real effective exchange rates: a disaggregated analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron Delano Alleyne ◽  
Onoh-Obasi Okey ◽  
Winston Moore
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the holiday and should be expected to effect tourism demand. This paper aims to scrutinize the volatility of the real effective exchange rate between the source market relative to the holiday destination and tourism demand volatility, where the influence of disaggregated data is noted. Design/methodology/approach The study uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to simulate the time-varying conditional variances of international visitor demand and exchange rates for the relatively mature Caribbean tourist destination of Barbados. Data on the country’s main source markets, the UK, the USA and Canada is used, where the decision to disaggregate the analysis by market allows the authors to contribute to policymaking, particularly the future of tourism marketing. Findings The volatility models used in the paper suggests that shocks to total arrivals, as well as the USA and UK markets tend to die out relatively quickly. Asymmetric effects were observed for total arrivals, mainly due to the combination of the different source markets and potential evidence of Butler’s (1980) concept of a tourist area’s cycle of growth. The results also highlight the significance of using disaggregated tourism demand models to simulate volatility, as aggregated models do not adequately capture source market specific shocks, due to the potential model misspecification. Exchange rate volatility is postulated to have resulted in the greater utilization of packaged tours in some markets, while the effects of the market’s online presence moderates the impact of exchange rate volatility on tourist arrivals. Markets should also explore the potential of attracting higher numbers of older tourist, as this group may have higher disposable incomes, thereby mitigating the influence of exchange rate volatility. Research limitations/implications Some of the explanatory variables were not available on a high enough frequency and proxies had to be used. However, the approach used was consistent with other papers in the literature. Practical implications The results from the paper suggest that the effects of exchange rate volatility in key source markets were offset by non-price factors in some markets and the existence of the exchange rate peg in others. In particular, the online presence of the destination was one of those non-price factors highlighted as being important. Originality/value In most theoretical models of tourism demand, disaggregation is not normally considered a significant aspect of the model. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the impact real effective exchange rate volatility has on tourism demand at a disaggregated source country level. The approach highlights the importance of modeling tourism demand at a disaggregated level and provides important perspective from a mature small island destination.

scholarly journals The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Fatbardha Morina ◽  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Uğur Ergün ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Marian Catalin Voica
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. The development of international trade creates conditions where volatility comes with the exchange rate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, the effect, through three channels of influence on economic growth which vary on the measurement of exchange rate volatility, is examined. The study uses annual data for fourteen CEE countries for the period 2002–2018 to examine the nature and extends the impact of such movements on growth. The empirical findings using the fixed effects estimation for panel data reveal that the volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on real economic growth. The results appear robust with alternative measures of exchange rate volatility such as standard deviation and z-score. This paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to keep the exchange rate stable in order to foster economic growth.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

scholarly journals The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners

EconoQuantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt ◽  
◽  
Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Objective: To investigate the main impacts of the bilateral exchange rate (er) volatility on Colombian exports for its main trade partners for the period 2001-2019, with the use of control variables in addition to er volatility measure, such as countries’ gdp, distance, and dummy variables for contiguity and common language. Methodology: Pooled ols, Fixed and Random Effects Panel models, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Results: The results showed that er volatility is harmful to the commercial relationship between Colombia and its trading partners. An increase of 1 % in the long term exchange rate volatility can reduce Colombian exports by 0.25-0.4%. Results also suggest that past information is particularly relevant in order to assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. As expected, exporter and importer incomes can increase trade, and distance can reduce trade. Limitations: Sectoral data used can be better explored. Originality: For the first time this methodology and data analysis is used to investigate the impact of er volatility on Colombian trade. Conclusions: Results add another empirical evidence to the literature of exchange rate and trade, where economic policies that aim to stabilize the exchange rate are likely to increase the volume of trade for Colombia and its trade partners.

scholarly journals Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)

2020 ◽  
Vol V (I) ◽  
pp. 198-208
Author(s):  
Rana Shahid Imdad Akash ◽  
Kashif Hamid ◽  
Iqbal Iqbal Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure ◽  
Variance Equation ◽  
News Effect ◽  
The Impact

This study is aimed to examine the impact of US News and exchange rate exposure on emerging economies of Pakistan, China, Turkey and Iran. Daily exchange rates have been used for the period Jan 1, 2003 to Dec 31, 2018 to identify the volatility in exchange rate exposure due to news effect. US News is modeled with variance equation respectively for each country exchange rate. GARCH (1,1) by Bollerslev (1986), and EGARCH (1,1) by Nelson (1991) models have been used to estimate the volatility of exchange rate dynamics. Results indicate that impact of US News is significantly positive on the exchange rate of Pakistan and China and the results of US news impact on Turkey and Iran are insignificant. Present study is helpful for investors, financial analysts and economic decision makers for understanding the changing dynamics of exchange rate volatility.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Evidence from West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 32-52
Author(s):  
Pabai Fofanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
West African ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper has been to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade in the context of exports, imports, and the trade balance in West Africa. Applying the pooled Ordinary Least Square, the fixed effects, and the random effect models, and obtaining robust estimates for export and trade balance models by employing xtgls, panels (correlated) Corr (ar1), and adopting xtscc, fe regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard error to estimate the import model. The empirical results show that the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports is insignificant. However, the result of the trade balance model shows a positive and significant link between exchange rate volatility and the trade balance. Thus, suggesting that traders tend to engage more in export activities with an increase in exchange rate volatility. Also, the analysis suggests that depreciation of the real exchange rate will lead to a decrease in exports. Thereby, confirming the limited production capability and heavy reliance on imported goods and services. Hence, this study recommends diversification of production activities and adopting strategies aiming at reducing dependence on imported goods and services. The empirical result shows a positive association between an increase in domestic economic activities of trading partners and exports of the West African countries. This implies that West African countries must engage in trade with countries that have a high economic growth rate. The result also shows a positive link between inflation rate and imports. This suggests the implementation of effective monetary policies geared towards controlling inflation.

scholarly journals An Empirical Sector-Specific Gravity Model for Hungarian International Trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2145-2150
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the economic literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on Hungary’s foreign trade. Basic gravity model shows that trade volume between a pair of countries is an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummy for common border and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by GARCH model. This paper explores relationship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1999:1 – 2014:3. In order to obtain the objective result, we use the panel data regression for 10 sectors of Hungarian international trade based on SITC classification and six major trading partners (Austria, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). The significant parameters obtained from panel regression demonstrate that bilateral exchange rate volatility leads to a decrease in Hungary’s foreign trade.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from the Egyptian Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Osama M. Badr ◽  
Ahmed F. El-khadrawi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on the export and import functions in reference to Egypt’s major trading partners over the period of 1980–2016. Estimates of a cointegration relationship are obtained using the ARDL model. The conditional variance of the GARCH (1,1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange rate fluctuation. The observed outcomes reveal a significant negative coefficient of volatility on export and a non-significant positive coefficient on import. Indeed, this finding supports the traditional view that higher volatility will decrease export. To avoid the negative consequences of ERV, policymakers should shift from the concept of specialization based on the comparative advantage to competitive advantage and focus on the diversification of Egyptian exports while avoiding risks associated with market concentration by exploring potential opportunities that would increase trade openness by expanding Egypt’s trade with other countries, especially with low and middle-income and emerging countries.

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