scholarly journals What Drives Inflation-Output Tradeoff Dynamics in Pakistan? An Assessment of International Linkages and Global Trends

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-81
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ayyoub ◽  
Julia Wörz
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This article illustrates the dynamics of and tradeoff between inflation and output in Pakistan by utilizing data on 18 major trading partners in a cointegration analysis. In doing so, we use key features of the global vector autoregressive approach to construct a model that captures foreign-specific variables related to Pakistan; these are analyzed empirically along with domestic data for the period 1972–2014. Our findings show that, after accounting for the impact of increasing interdependencies, trade spillovers and changing global macroeconomic conditions, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between domestic inflation and output. The foreign variables have a significant impact on the key domestic variables. In particular, domestic inflation and trade openness, foreign inflation and world oil prices have significant explanatory power for Pakistani output. Policymakers in Pakistan should therefore account for global developments, specifically in trading partner economies.

THE IMPACT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFOMANCE IN KENYA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-57
Author(s):  
John Githii Kimani ◽  
Dr. George Ruigu Ruigu
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of research and development investment/expenditure on the agricultural sector performance in Kenya.Methodology: The study took the peoples impact assessment direction. The data for this study was collected from various government agencies such as KARI, ASTI, Kenya Agricultural Sector Data compendium website, FAOSTAT, World Bank among others. Co-integration and error correction modeling methods were used in analyzing the data for this study.Results: Co-integration results for both the parsimonious and non-parsimonious model indicated that that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the agriculture performance in Kenya. Further, findings in this study indicated that the variables under study were insignificant determinants of the long run Total Factor Productivity of the agricultural sector.  Meanwhile, Trade openness was the only significant determinant of the short run agricultural Total Factor Productivity.Unique Contribution to Policy and Practice: This study recommends the institutionalization of policies aimed at ensuring interaction between the various stakeholders in the agricultural sectors. This interaction will ensure that resources are better allocated to reduce duplication of research and dissemination activities. In addition, greater collaboration among the stakeholders will promote and strengthen the connection between research, policy and the application of research findings. The study further advocates that the government should follow a trade liberazation oriented approach to the agricultural sector as opposed to a trade tightening approach.

Macroeconomic determinants of trade openness: empirical investigation of SAARC region

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
SAF Hasnu ◽  
Mario Ruiz Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Trade openness plays a significant role in the growth process of countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the trade openness of countries. Design/methodology/approach The study focuses on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries and the data used were from 1971 to 2011. Panel data econometrics techniques and two stages least square method (TSLS) are used to carry out empirical analysis and robustness testing. Findings The main finding of the paper is that macroeconomic determinants such as investment both in physical and human capital and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) positively affect trade openness. Further, the size of labour force and currency exchange rate has also impacted trade openness negatively and significantly. Practical implications It implies that efficient macroeconomic management matters for higher trade openness. The sampled developing countries are suggested to pay favourable attention to macroeconomic variables if they want to grow in the long run through outward-oriented policies. Originality/value This paper is an original contribution in the context of SAARC countries by focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and trade openness.

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabail Amna Intisar ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen ◽  
Rakhshanda Kousar ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Southern Asia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth in 19 Asian countries from 1985 to 2017. We selected two geographically distributed regions (Western and Southern Asia) based on difference in their GDP per capita. We applied the unit root tests to examine the level of stationarity and found that all variables were integrated at first difference. Kao and Fisher cointegration tests were employed and the results revealed the presence of a long-run relationship. We applied fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models to check the magnitude of the long-run coefficients among trade openness, human capital and economic growth. To investigate the direction of causality, we used a Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) causality test. The results indicated that trade openness and human capital have a significant and positive relationship while labor force participation has a negative effect on economic growth in Southern Asia, and in the case of Western Asia, the impact is positive. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative and significant impact on GDP per capita (GDPPC) in Western Asia while it is positive and significant in Southern Asia; Total population (TPOP) has a negative impact on GDPPC in both regions. Furthermore, human capital has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in both panels. Meanwhile, labor force participation (LFP) has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in Southern Asia and a negative impact in the case of Western Asia. Trade openness and economic growth have bidirectional causality in Western Asia and unidirectional causality in Southern Asia. It also shows that human capital and economic growth have unidirectional causality in both regions.

Impact of Trade Openness on Nigerian Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation, 1970–2011

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald C. Nwadike ◽  
Ani Kelechi Johnmary ◽  
Chukwuma Samuel Alamba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Total Import ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Geopolitical territories have often engaged in one form of trade or another with their neighbours. That is because no nation in the world can survive without one form of trade with other sovereign states. This study examines the nature of trade openness and economic growth in Nigeria from 1970–2011. The emphasis of this empirical study is to ascertain the impact of trade openness on Nigeria’s economic growth. Causal comparative or ex-post facto research design was adopted in the study. Econometric time series analyses like ADF unit root test, co-integration test and the ordinary least squared (OLS) were employed in the study. The result obtained was used to test the hypotheses, and it was revealed that (i) Trade Openness has positive significant impact on Nigeria’s economic growth; while (ii) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) responds to the shock of Trade Openness value as a proxy of total import and total export divided by GDP as well as change in Exchange Rate (DEXR) within Nigeria’s economy during the period of study. Thus, the co-integration results indicate that there exists long-run relationship among the variables used; hence; the researchers then recommended that there is urgent need for the government to create enabling environment for good trade policy that would attract both foreign and domestic private sector investment in the country. JEL Codes: F13, B27

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals Impact of Remittances Inflows and Macroeconomic Stability on Poverty in Nigeria (1977-2014)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony O. Onoja ◽  
Clarietta Chagwiza
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Skills Acquisition ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Official Exchange Rate

Abstract The study explored the trend and effects of macroeconomic conditions on poverty (using household consumption as proxy for poverty) in Nigeria. It also analyzed how foreign migration remittances affect aggregate household poverty. It relied on secondary data analyzed using trend and cointegration analysis. It was found that on the long run, when gleaned from the perspective of aggregate household consumption, level of poverty in the country could be explained by economic growth (GDP per capita current USD, lngdp), volume of export trade as percentage of GDP (lnexptrgdp), official exchange rate of Nigerian Naira to USD (lnforex), inflation rate (lninf) and age dependency ratio of population (proxy for aggregate level of unemployment) (lnagedprat). Efforts must be put in place to promote youth employment opportunities, export market access to Small and medium scale enterprises, proper management of foreign exchange regimes. Since migration is not a sustainable source of income for the country, Nigerian authorities must provide education and skills acquisition opportunities too and enhanced working conditions to reduce dependency on immigration as a source of poverty reduction in households.

scholarly journals Workers’ Remittances in Yemen: Macroeconomic Determinants and Impact on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Essa A. Alhannom ◽  
Ghaleb S. Mushabeb
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the determinants of workers’ remittances and their impact on economic growth in Yemen. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test to co-integration and error correction model (ECM) were applied on data covering the period from 1990 to 2014. According to the model of remittances determinants, workers’ remittances in Yemen respond to the macroeconomic conditions of both the home and host countries. It is found that, in the long-run, migrant stock and income level at the host countries are positively and strongly influence remittances level, with a feeble impact of domestic inflation rates. The effect of the home country’s income seems to be positive but insignificant in explaining the behavior of remittances level. The model of economic growth suggests that, in the long-run,  the impact of workers’ remittances appears to be positive and moderate with positive and stronger influences observed for financial development and official development assistance. Accordingly, it is recommended that a lesser weight should be given to remittances in the strategic planning process, taking into consideration the increasing potentials of the conditions in the neighboring host countries to be changed. In addition, using remittances as a means of economic growth can be enhanced by encouraging migrants to direct their savings towards productive investment activities, and via formal channels.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Components in Context of Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (34) ◽  
pp. 384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Akram Gilal ◽  
Khadim Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Ajmair ◽  
Sabahat Akram
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Investment Liberalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Objective of this paper was to evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on trade components (exports and imports) of Pakistan using annual data from 1975 to 2013. Engle and Granger two step cointegration method was used for conducting the analysis. This method was adopted because all the variables of interest were non stationary in level and stationary at first difference. Results provide evidence of long run cointegrating relationship as well as short run relationship between FDI and trade components. A rise in FDI causes both exports and imports to increase. Based on these empirical findings, we strongly recommend Government of Pakistan to focus on the strategy of investment liberalization as well as trade openness.

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