scholarly journals Issue characterization of electoral change (and how recent elections in Western Europe were won on economic issues)

2021 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-67
Author(s):  
Davide Angelucci ◽  
Lorenzo De Sio
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
The Individual

Results of the last electoral season in Western Europe have been mostly seen in the light of the success of challenger, anti-establishment parties. According to this narrative, past elections have been overwhelmingly dominated by cultural issues such as immigration and the EU. However, these accounts suffer from several limitations. First, they generally focus on the determinants of the static component of electoral results (i.e. vote choice) rather than the factors leading to vote change (i.e. the individual-level component of aggregate electoral change). Second, relying on party manifestos and programmatic platforms, they usually offer a party-based reconstruction of the general climate of elections. As a consequence, they provide only an indirect, at best limited, overview of the actual political issues that might have driven electoral results. To overcome these limitations, in this paper we introduce a new methodological strategy to characterize electoral results in comparative perspective. To do so we leverage an issue-rich public opinion dataset to estimate individual-level vote change towards each party as a function of issue-based party-voter affinity measures in 6 European countries. Relying on 38 logistic regression models (one for each party), our results contradict many current interpretations of electoral results in Western Europe, in fact showing that economic issues, rather than broad cultural ones, emerged as the most relevant predictors of vote inflows. Furthermore, it also demonstrates the relevance of “cross-ideological” mobilization across all the 6 countries covered in this study.

scholarly journals Differences in Sickness Allowance Receipt between Swedish Speakers and Finnish Speakers in Finland

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 43-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaarina S. Reini ◽  
Jan Saarela
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Health Condition ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Objective Health ◽  
Language Groups ◽  
Health Measure ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual

Previous research has documented lower disability retirement and mortality rates of Swedish speakers as compared with Finnish speakers in Finland. This paper is the first to compare the two language groups with regard to the receipt of sickness allowance, which is an objective health measure that reflects a less severe poor health condition. Register-based data covering the years 1988-2011 are used. We estimate logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations to account for repeated observations at the individual level. We find that Swedish-speaking men have approximately 30 percent lower odds of receiving sickness allowance than Finnish-speaking men, whereas the difference in women is about 15 percent. In correspondence with previous research on all-cause mortality at working ages, we find no language-group difference in sickness allowance receipt in the socially most successful subgroup of the population.

scholarly journals Predicting Violence in Merseyside: a Network-Based Approach Using No Demographic Information

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 89-102
Author(s):  
Paolo Campana ◽  
Andrea Giovannetti
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level ◽  
Very High ◽  
Individual Information

Abstract Purpose We explore how we can best predict violent attacks with injury using a limited set of information on (a) previous violence, (b) previous knife and weapon carrying, and (c) violence-related behaviour of known associates, without analysing any demographic characteristics. Data Our initial data set consists of 63,022 individuals involved in 375,599 events that police recorded in Merseyside (UK) from 1 January 2015 to 18 October 2018. Methods We split our data into two periods: T1 (initial 2 years) and T2 (the remaining period). We predict “violence with injury” at time T2 as defined by Merseyside Police using the following individual-level predictors at time T1: violence with injury; involvement in a knife incident and involvement in a weapon incident. Furthermore, we relied on social network analysis to reconstruct the network of associates at time T1 (co-offending network) for those individuals who have committed violence at T2, and built three additional network-based predictors (associates’ violence; associates’ knife incident; associates’ weapon incident). Finally, we tackled the issue of predicting violence (a) through a series of robust logistic regression models using a bootstrapping method and (b) through a specificity/sensitivity analysis. Findings We found that 7720 individuals committed violence with injury at T2. Of those, 2004 were also present at T1 (27.7%) and co-offended with a total of 7202 individuals. Regression models suggest that previous violence at time T1 is the strongest predictor of future violence (with an increase in odds never smaller than 123%), knife incidents and weapon incidents at the individual level have some predictive power (but only when no information on previous violence is considered), and the behaviour of one’s associates matters. Prior association with a violent individual and prior association with a knife-flagged individual were the two strongest network predictors, with a slightly stronger effect for knife flags. The best performing regressors are (a) individual past violence (36% of future violence cases correctly identified); (b) associates’ past violence (25%); and (c) associates’ knife involvement (14%). All regressors are characterised by a very high level of specificity in predicting who will not commit violence (80% or more). Conclusions Network-based indicators add to the explanation of future violence, especially prior association with a knife-flagged individual and association with a violent individual. Information about the knife involvement of associates appears to be more informative than a subject’s own prior knife involvement.

The Exposome: Molecules to Populations

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan M. Niedzwiecki ◽  
Douglas I. Walker ◽  
Roel Vermeulen ◽  
Marc Chadeau-Hyam ◽  
Dean P. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Biological Responses ◽  
Psychological Stressors ◽  
Health And Disease ◽  
Pharmacology And Toxicology ◽  
Scale Characterization ◽  
The Individual

Derived from the term exposure, the exposome is an omic-scale characterization of the nongenetic drivers of health and disease. With the genome, it defines the phenome of an individual. The measurement of complex environmental factors that exert pressure on our health has not kept pace with genomics and historically has not provided a similar level of resolution. Emerging technologies make it possible to obtain detailed information on drugs, toxicants, pollutants, nutrients, and physical and psychological stressors on an omic scale. These forces can also be assessed at systems and network levels, providing a framework for advances in pharmacology and toxicology. The exposome paradigm can improve the analysis of drug interactions and detection of adverse effects of drugs and toxicants and provide data on biological responses to exposures. The comprehensive model can provide data at the individual level for precision medicine, group level for clinical trials, and population level for public health.

Preference Voting in Italy

1985 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD S. KATZ
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Full Account ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Representation Systems ◽  
Preference Voting ◽  
Important Possibility ◽  
The Individual

Intraparty preference voting is a potentially important possibility for voters in many proportional representation systems, especially the Italian system. Three hypotheses—that preference voting is an indicator of traditionalism or the voto di scambio, sophistication or the voto d'opinione, and mobilization or the voto d'appartenenza—are considered using survey data and logistic regression models. All three hypotheses are supported by the data. Although the support for the individual-level traditionalism account is weakest, the data suggest that traditional political culture may contribute to the contextual prerequisites for sophistication or mobilization to lead to preference voting. Overall, it is suggested that the three explanations are complementary rather than contradictory, and that contextual effects must be considered in a full account of preference voting.

The Evolution of the Immigration Debate: Evidence from a New Dataset of Party Positions Over the Last Half-Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 734-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafaela Dancygier ◽  
Yotam Margalit
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
The Political ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Dimension ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Made In

Immigration is one of the most contentious issues across contemporary democracies, but this has not always been the case. What accounts for this development? We study how immigration has evolved in the political debate in Western Europe over five decades by creating and analyzing a comprehensive new data set—Immigration in Party Manifestos (IPM)—of all immigration-related appeals made in preelection manifestos by major parties. Our account focuses on three central debates. First, contra to perceived wisdom, we find no evidence of polarization between left and right. Instead, we document a striking co-movement. Second, we find only modest support for the argument that the success of anti-immigrant parties significantly shapes how centrist parties position themselves on immigration. Finally, our evidence counters the claim that cultural issues have overtaken the debate over immigration. Although the prominence of immigration-related cultural appeals has increased in certain countries and elections, the economic dimension has remained prevalent.

Determinants of solo and employer entrepreneurship in Visegrád countries: findings from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-464
Author(s):  
Ondřej Dvouletý ◽  
Marko Orel
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Visegrád Countries

Purpose This study aims to extend the existing body of literature on the individual-level determinants of self-employed persons with (employer entrepreneurs) and without employees (solo self-employed individuals) from the perspective of four post-communist economies (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Design/methodology/approach The methodological approach is based on the three harmonised waves (2005, 2010 and 2015) of the European Survey on Working Conditions (EWCS). Multi-variate logistic regression models are used to determine the individual-level differences among employees, solo self-employed individuals and job creators in the selected group of countries. Findings The results show significant differences among employees, solo self-employed individuals and job creators, especially when it comes to the role of age, gender, education, previous experience, number of working hours and their determination. Job creators in Visegrád countries have, on average, more years of experience, and higher levels of education (tertiary), than wage-employees. Research limitations/implications This study provides a series of recommendations for future research on the role of family- and household-related characteristics, entrepreneurship-specific education and migration background. Originality/value The previous research on individual determinants of entrepreneurial engagement in Visegrád region was mainly based on the data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. This study offers a novel perspective based on the EWCS data.

scholarly journals Bribing Behaviour and Sample Selection: Evidence from Post-Socialist Countries and Western Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 235 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artjoms Ivlevs ◽  
Timothy Hinks
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Public Official ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
Biased Estimates

Summary We study the individual-level determinants of bribing public officials. Particular attention is paid to the issue of respondents’ non-random selection into contact with public officials, which may result in biased estimates. Data come from the 2010 Life in Transition Survey, covering 30 post-socialist and five Western European countries. The results suggest that the elderly tend to be less likely to bribe public officials, while people with higher income and, especially, low trust in public institutions are more likely to bribe. Several determinants of bribery - ethnic minority status, the degree of urbanisation, social trust - are context specific, i.e. they change signs or are statistically significant according to the geographical region or the type of public official. The results show that not accounting for sample selection effects may produce a bias in estimated coefficients.

Presidential Rhetoric and Nationalism: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Nataliia Kasianenko
Keyword(s):  
News Coverage ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Media Content ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Leadership Frames ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Saliency Theory

Abstract This article leverages saliency theory to explore how regimes may use state-controlled media to intensify nationalism and gain legitimacy. I explore mainstream news coverage in Russia and Ukraine with a particular emphasis on how political leadership frames nationalist rhetoric in the two countries to emphasize certain issues over others. I focus on relevant media content that contains nationalist rhetoric before and after the invasion of Russia into Ukraine’s territory in the spring of 2014. Content analysis suggests that political leaders in both countries have focused on political issues, while largely ignoring economic issues in their nationalist rhetoric. The analysis also shows that state leaders can successfully promote nationalism by emphasizing cultural issues and concerns.

scholarly journals Explaining the end of Spanish exceptionalism and electoral support for Vox

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 205316801985168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections

The 2018 regional elections in Andalucía marked the end of Spain’s exceptional status as a country with a party system free from the radical right. The electoral success of the radical right-wing challenger, Vox, who gained 11% of the vote and 12 seats in the regional parliament, brought this exceptionalism to an end. This paper analyses the individual-level determinants that explain the electoral success of Vox and the emergence of the radical right within the Spanish party system. The results indicate that concerns over devolution, likely engendered by the Catalan separatist crisis, predominantly explain voters’ preferences for the right-wing challenger. This is true both amongst the general electorate as well as amongst the former voters of other right-wing parties. Significantly, against popular assumptions and empirical observations explaining the rise of radical right-wing parties across much of Western Europe, the results display no empirical link between immigration and electoral support for Vox.

Political Realignment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell J. Dalton
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Green Parties ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Political Realignment ◽  
The Impact

The pace of electoral change is accelerating in contemporary democracies. This study explains why. Green parties, far right parties, and shifting voting patterns reflect deeper processes of electoral realignment. This book tracks the evolution of citizen and party elite opinions on economic and cultural issues from the 1970s to the 2010s—and the impact of these opinions on electoral politics. Economic issues remain important predictors of vote, but are now matched by cultural issues. An unprecedented time series of empirical evidence from Europe and the United States shows how these changes have reshaped party systems, and the policy linkages between voters and parties.

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