scholarly journals Penerapan metode fuzzy sugeno untuk prediksi persediaan bahan baku

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-20
Author(s):  
Julio Warmansyah ◽  
Dida Hilpiah
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Human Power ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
A Company

 PT. Cahaya Boxindo Prasetya is a company engaged in the manufacture of carton boxes or boxes. The company's activities also include cutting and printing services using machinery and human power. The problem faced in this company is the difficulty of predicting the amount of inventory of raw materials that will be  included in the production. The remaining raw materials for production will be used as the final stock to get the minimum, the goal is to reduce excess stock Overcoming this problem, fuzzy logic is used to predict raw material inventories by focusing on the final stock. In this study using Fuzzy Sugeno, with three input variables, namely: initial inventory, purchase, production, while the output is the final stock. Determination of prediction results using defuzzification using the average concept of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The results obtained, using the Fuzzy Sugeno method can predict the inventory of raw materials with a MAPE value of 38%. 

scholarly journals Peramalan Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode Average Based And Fuzzy Logic Relationship

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-242
Author(s):  
A M Pratiwi ◽  
S Musdalifah ◽  
D Lusiyanti
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Logic Relationship

Emas merupakan alternatif yang cenderung dipilih kebanyakan orang untuk berinvestasi karena beberapa alasan, salah satunya menguntungkan. Untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang optimal, pelaku investasi harus mengetahui pergerakan harga emas sehingga pelaku investasi tahu kapan harus membeli emas dan kapan harus menjual emas. Pergerakan harga emas dapat dipantau dengan peramalan. Metode peramalan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah average based and fuzzy logic relationship yang merupakan salah satu metode dengan konsep fuzzy logic. Metode tersebut memberikan tingkat akurasi yang dihitung menggunakan MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) sebesar  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peramalan pergerakan harga emas pada bulan Oktober 2020  Desember 2021 dalam rentang harga dengan harga emas tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Desember 2020.

Liquid Chromatographic Determination of Amiodarone Hydrochloride and Related Compounds in Raw Materials and Tablets

1994 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 1447-1453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline M Lacrok ◽  
Norman M Curran ◽  
Wing-Wah Sy ◽  
Dennis K J Goreck ◽  
Pierre Thibault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Chromatographic Determination ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Liquid Chromatographic Method ◽  
Limit Of Quantitation ◽  
Liquid Chromatographic Determination ◽  
Liquid Chromatographic ◽  
Amiodarone Hydrochloride ◽  
Related Compounds

Abstract A liquid chromatographic method for the determination of amiodarone hydrochloride and 10 related compounds in drug raw material and for assay of drug in tablets was developed. The method specifies a 3 jxm Hypersil nitrile column (150 × 4.6 mm), a mobile phase of 1 + 1 acetonitrile–ammonium acetate buffer (0.1 M adjusted to pH 6.0 with 0.1 M acetic acid), a flow rate of 1 mL/min, and detection at 240 nm. The lower limit of quantitation of the related compounds is 0.02% or less. Drug contents in 2 raw material samples were 100.1 and 99.9% and ranged from 98.2 to 99.4% in 3 tablet formulations. Impurity levels in 2 samples of raw material from different manufacturers were ca 0.4%. The presence of 3 of the known related compounds in these samples was confirmed by liquid chromatographymass spectrometry. The method applied to raw materials was evaluated by a second laboratory and found to be satisfactory.

Towards optimal ATM cash replenishment using time series analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafi ◽  
Mohammad Taha Wahab ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Khan ◽  
Hani Raza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Automatic Teller Machine ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Specific Amount

Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) are still largely used to dispense cash to the customers. ATM cash replenishment is a process of refilling ATM machine with a specific amount of cash. Due to vacillating users demands and seasonal patterns, it is a very challenging problem for the financial institutions to keep the optimal amount of cash for each ATM. In this paper, we present a time series model based on Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique called Time Series ARIMA Model for ATM (TASM4ATM). This study used ATM back-end refilling historical data from 6 different financial organizations in Pakistan. There are 2040 distinct ATMs and 18 month of replenishment data from these ATMs are used to train the proposed model. The model is compared with the state-of- the-art models like Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Amazon’s DeepAR model. Two approaches are used for forecasting (i) Single ATM and (ii) clusters of ATMs (In which ATMs are clustered with similar cash-demands). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) are used to evaluate the models. The suggested model produces far better forecasting as compared to the models in comparison and produced an average of 7.86/7.99 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on individual ATMs and average of 6.57/6.64 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on clusters of ATMs.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN METODE EARNED VALUE, EARNED SCHEDULE, DAN KALMAN FILTER EARNED VALUE UNTUK PREDIKSI DURASI PROYEK

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Andree Sugiyanto ◽  
Onnyxiforus Gondokusumo
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Control Data ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Duration Prediction

In the world of construction, control is needed at the implementation stage, which is prediction or forecasting duration project schedule. Estimated project schedule is an important part for project management making decisions that affect the future of the project. Forecasting method commonly used by practitioners in this case the construction project contractor in evaluating prediction of duration is deterministic forecasting method Earned Value Method (EVM), Earned Schedule Method (ESM). Kalman Filter Earned Value Method (KEVM) as probabilistic forecasting method is carried out to produce more accurate predictive value. The purpose of this study to compare the accuracy of three methods. This research was conducted by calculating duration of the project from EVM, ESM, and KEVM on maintenance and reconstruction projects of Jakarta-Cikampek and Jakarta-Tangerang toll roads. The data used from the project control data S-curve. The control data is processed with EVM, ESM, KEVM to determine the comparison between three methods of predicting duration. Prediction results of three methods were tested with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study indicate that KEVM can reduce errors after Kalman Filter is performed on estimated duration using EVM. ESM duration prediction yields the smallest MAPE value of the three methods. AbstrakDalam dunia pembangunan konstruksi dibutuhkan pengendalian pada tahap pelaksanaan yaitu prediksi atau peramalan durasi jadwal proyek. Perkiraan jadwal proyek adalah bagian penting untuk manajemen proyek membuat keputusan yang mempengaruhi masa depan proyek. Metode peramalan yang umum digunakan para praktisi dalam hal ini kontraktor proyek konstruksi dalam mengevaluasi prediksi durasi adalah metode peramalan deterministik Earned Value Method (EVM), Earned Schedule Method (ESM). Kalman Filter Earned Value Method (KEVM) sebagai metode peramalan probabilistik dilakukan untuk menghasilkan nilai prediksi yang lebih akurat. Tujuan penelitian ini membandingkan akurasi dari ketiga metode. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menghitung durasi proyek dari EVM, ESM, dan KEVM pada proyek pemeliharaan dan rekonstruksi jalan tol Jakarta – Cikampek dan Jakarta – Tangerang. Data yang digunakan dari proyek tersebut adalah data-data pengendalian berupa kurva S. Data pengendalian tersebut diolah dengan EVM, ESM, KEVM untuk mengetahui perbandingan antara ketiga metode prediksi durasi tersebut. Hasil prediksi dari ketiga metode diuji dengan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa KEVM dapat mengurangi kesalahan setelah dilakukan Kalman Filter pada perkiraan durasi menggunakan Earned Value Method. Prediksi durasi ESM menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang paling kecil dari ketiga metode.

scholarly journals PERENCANAAN BAHAN BAKU DAN HASIL PRODUKSI MENGGUNAKAN METODE LINIER PROGRAMMING SIMPLEK

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Handayani ◽  
Eka Kusuma Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Simplex Method ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Testing System ◽  
Basic Solution ◽  
Linear Programming Method

<p>CV. Baja Utama Landasan Ulin is a business entity that manufactures various products using the basic ingredients of iron. In the management of raw materials for the production of common regulatory process raw materials into sections for further processing. This setting is often done manually without doing careful planning, so that at the end of each production process there are many remaining pieces of the raw materials that should be used in production. In addition to the determination of the production is necessary to reference how the product should be made for each type of existing products. This is often an important factor that pushed for the optimization of production planning in determining the number of products for each type of product and raw material consumption.Linear Programming is one of the methods used in production planning to regulate the use of raw materials is limited. Simplex method is part of the linear programming method that can be used in the production planning system implementation. Simplex method identifies an initial basic solution and then move systematically to other basic solution that has the potential to improve the value of the objective function.The calculation result of production planning using the simplex method can be used as a reference in the decision making production planning. By building an application using the simplex method can assist in the calculation of production peencanaan more efficiently and effectively. Accuracy testing system constructed show significant results with great value reached 94% level of accuracy.<br />Keywords: simplex, production planning, the maximum gain, linear programming</p>

scholarly journals Novel Spatiotemporal Feature Extraction Parallel Deep Neural Network for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiou-Jye Huang ◽  
Yamin Shen ◽  
Ping-Huan Kuo ◽  
Yung-Hsiang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Spatiotemporal Feature ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic continues as of March 26 and spread to Europe on approximately February 24. A report from April 29 revealed 1.26 million confirmed cases and 125 928 deaths in Europe. This study proposed a novel deep neural network framework, COVID-19Net, which parallelly combines a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional gated recurrent units (GRUs). Three European countries with severe outbreaks were studied—Germany, Italy, and Spain—to extract spatiotemporal feature and predict the number of confirmed cases. The prediction results acquired from COVID-19Net were compared to those obtained using a CNN, GRU, and CNN-GRU. The mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error, which are commonly used model assessment indices, were used to compare the accuracy of the models. The results verified that COVID-19Net was notably more accurate than the other models. The mean absolute percentage error generated by COVID-19Net was 1.447 for Germany, 1.801 for Italy, and 2.828 for Spain, which were considerably lower than those of the other models. This indicated that the proposed framework can accurately predict the accumulated number of confirmed cases in the three countries and serve as a crucial reference for devising public health strategies.

scholarly journals Peramalan Harga Komoditas Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arima-Garch

Jurnal Varian ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-124
Author(s):  
Ulil Azmi ◽  
Wawan Hafid Syaifudin
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Data History

Emas, Tembaga dan Minyak merupakan jenis komoditas yang banyak diincar oleh para investor untuk menanamkan modal dengan cara melakukan investasi pada jenis komoditas tersebut. Prediksi harga komoditas sangat bermanfaat bagi investor untuk melihat prospek investasi komoditas pada suatu perusahaan di masa yang akan datang. Harga komoditas memiliki karakteristik data yang tidak stabil atau sering disebut volatilitas. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, dilakukan peramalan dengan metode ARIMA dan ARIMA-GARCH. Dipilih dua metode tersebut karena dua metode ini cocok untuk meramalkan sesuatu yang memiliki data history yang kuat. Metode ARIMA ARCH-GARCH lebih cocok digunakan untuk data-data yang memliki volatilitas yang tinggi atau terdapat heteroskedastisitas pada residual data, sehingga hasil prediksi lebih akurat. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan nilai AIC lebih kecil dari pada hanya menggunakan metode ARIMA. Model terbaik untuk komoditas Emas adalah ARIMA(0,1,1) – GARCH(1,1) sedangkan komoditas tembaga memiliki model terbaik yaitu ARIMA(2,1,2) – GARCH(1,1) dan komoditas minyak yaitu ARIMA(1,1,1) – GARCH(0,1). Nilai MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) untuk masing-masing komoditas berturut-turut adalah 1,113; 0,542 dan 1,158 untuk Emas, Tembaga dan Minyak.

scholarly journals Selection of Fish Raw Material Suppliers by Integrating ANP and Topsis Methods in CV. Riki Utama Mandiri

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aula Fajar Iman Sakti ◽  
Wiwik Sulistiyowati
Keyword(s):  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Network Process ◽  
The Common ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
Frozen Fish ◽  
A Company ◽  
Selection Of

CV. Riki Utama Mandiri is a company in distributing an economic fish frozen product. This company distributed any kind of retail and wholesaler, both domestic and export. They distributing many frozen fish products variant such as Patin Fillet and Shark Fin. The all raw materials of those frozen seafood was obtained by three different suppliers. The common problems found in CV. Riki Utama Mandiri mostly about raw patin fish supplier which often committed delivery delays.  The purpose of this research is to fixing the supply chain management in deciding the more accurate selections of raw materials supplier. To overcome the common problems that happen. Analytical network process (ANP) will simplify the criteria weight values and sub criteria of each supplier. Meanwhile, technique for others reference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is used for giving a rank order of the alternative supplier. This research is expected for being a consideration for the company in obtaining a good and more effective kind of raw supplier. We also expecting the company for tighten supplier selection more effective way so that it can fullfilled the existing standard. Also to overcome the common problems such as delivery delays, competing raw materials with uncertain quality, and difficulty in sort out the raw materials due to size issues.

scholarly journals Peramalan Jumlah Populasi Sapi Potong di Kalimantan Selatan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan Trend Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Jaka Darma Jaya
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Polynomial Trend ◽  
Squared Error

Perkembangan produksi daging sapi di Indonesia selama 30 tahun terakhir secara umum cenderung meningkat. Kebutuhan daging sapi di Indonesia masih belum bisa dicukupi oleh supply domestik, sehingga diperlukan impor daging sapi dari luar negeri.  Diperlukan kajian tentang proyeksi ketersediaan populasi sapi potong di masa mendatang agar diambil kebijakan yang tepat dalam menjaga stabilitas dan keterpenuhan supply daging nasional.  Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan peramalan jumlah populasi sapi potong menggunakan 3 (tiga) metode peramalan yaitu metode moving average, exponential smoothing dan trend analysis.  Hasil peramalan ini selanjutnya diukur akurasinya menggunakan MAD (Mean Absolud Deviation), MSE (Mean Squared Error) dan MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error).  Proyeksi populasi sapi potong pada tahun 2019 (periode berikutnya) menggunakan 3 metode peramalan adalah: 195.100 (moving average); 218.225 (exponential smooting) dan 262.899 (trend analysis). Pengukuran akurasi menggunakan MAD, MSE dan MAPE menunjukkan bahwa metode peramalan jumlah populasi sapi potong yang paling akurat adalah peramalan menggunakan metode polynomial trend analysis (MAD 14.716,12;  MSE 327.282.084,17; dan MAPE 0,09) karena memiliki tingkat kesalahan yang lebih kecil dibandingkan hasil peramalan menggunakan metode moving average dan exponential smoothing.

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