scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and GARCH Methods to Predict Stock Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-415
Author(s):  
Atin Nuryatin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Verification Methods ◽  
Secondary Data Sources ◽  
Forecasting Errors

Investment has a very important role in economic growth, when investors invest, GDP tends to rise when investment falls, so GDP also tends to decline. Investors must be vigilant in investing in banking companies. One of the ways to predict stock prices with technical analysis is by using the ARIMA and GARCH methods. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the ARIMA and GARCH methods are accurate in predicting stock prices. The research method used in this research is descriptive and verification methods with a quantitative approach. Sources of data taken in this study are secondary data sources for the bank sub-sector found on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), namely the annual stock price reports for the years 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 as many as 39 companies. Processing data from this study using the ARIMA and GARCH methods with an evaluation of forecasting errors using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), or Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) analysis results using the E-View 9 program. shows that the ARIMA Method is accurate in predicting stock prices in 2015, 2016, and 2018. Meanwhile, the GARCH Method is accurate in predicting stock prices in 2014 and 2017.

scholarly journals Harga Saham Kini: Dalam Bayang-bayang Fundamental

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80
Author(s):  
Sari Gabe Sagala ◽  
Mochamad Muslih
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Funding Policy ◽  
Funding Policies

This study aims to determine the effect of liquidity, funding policies, and financial performance on the stock prices of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2009-2018 period. The theory tested in this research is signaling theory. This research uses quantitative methods. The research variables are stock price, company liquidity, funding policy, and financial performance. The data used are secondary data taken from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The population in this study is pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research sample is 7 (seven) pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2009-2018. The results showed that company liquidity had no significant effect on stock prices, funding policies had no significant effect on stock prices, and financial performance had no significant effect on stock prices. The results of this study add to the outer layer of knowledge building according to Imre Lakatos. The implication of this research is that the company's fundamental conditions do not necessarily affect stock prices, depending on the type of stock market. It is recommended to investors to be more careful in observing the factors that influence stock prices in the 4.0 industrial revolution era. Next researchers are advised to use other fundamental aspects as their independent variables so that more fundamental elements of the company are examined in relation to stock prices in the 4.0 industrial revolution era.

scholarly journals Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Altman Z-Score dan Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Hikmah Hikmah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
Basic Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Company ◽  
Score Method

Bankruptcy Prediction With the Altman Z-Score Method and the stock price on Manufacturing Company. This research aims to analyze the bankruptcy prediction on stock prices in manufacturing company of basic industry sector and chemical sub-sector of metals that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period of 2015-2017. The sampling method was done with purposive sampling which then determined 15 companies as sample. Sources of data used are secondary data in the form of financial report published in BEI. Data analysis used data panel regression using eviews version 8. These result shows that Altman Z-Score variable: 1) Working capital to total assets, 2) Retained earning to total assets, 3) Earning before interest and taxes to total assets, 4) Market value of equity to book value of total debts, and 5) Sales to total assets significantly influence stock prices in the metal subsector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the average company is in the gray area

scholarly journals Analysis Of Factors Affecting the Value Of Manufacturing Industry Companies in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX)

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javindri Yoseph Renaldi ◽  
Dahlia Br. Pinem ◽  
Yul Tito Permadhy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sample Collection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Research Population

The purpose of this research is conducted to analyze factors the extent of influence (Liquidity - CR), (Leverage - DER), and (Dividend Policy - DPR) that can occur with (Firm Value - PBV). Manufacturing Industry Company was chosen because of fluctuations in stock prices that surged from the Composite Stock Price Index. The theory used is the signaling theory, trade-off theory, and dividend policy theory. The data used are secondary data with a sample collection method using purposive sampling. Where the research population is used is manufacturing industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) 2016-2018 observation period a number of 157 companies, with the final sample of this research obtained 34 selected companies that became the sample criteria. Data analysis techniques were performed using descriptive statistics and panel data regression analysis, with the help of the application E-views version 9.0 and Microsoft Excel 2013. The results of the research partially revealed that the variable (Leverage - DER) had an influence on (Firm Value - PBV) while the variable (Liquidity - CR) and (Dividend Policy - DPR) have no influence on Firm Value. And the independent variables affect the dependent variable by 16.64%. 

scholarly journals PENGARUH RASIO KEUANGAN TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM (STUDI PADA PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR PERTAMBANGAN MINYAK YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2014-2018)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-197
Author(s):  
Sulis Tiono ◽  
Bambang Sugeng Dwiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Book Value

Stock price fluctuations are natural and almost occur in all companies in various sectors, including companies in the oil mining sector so that price changes affect the company's financial performance and stock prices which can be analyzed fundamentally using financial ratios to aspects in the financial statements. The framework of this research is to analyze the effect of financial ratios on stock prices. The population and sample used are oil mining sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014-2018. The sampling method used is purposive sampling or judgmental sampling. Sources of data used are secondary data in the form of financial statements. The tool used for data collection is through the method of observation and analysis of the company's financial statements. The results showed, based on the t test value, stock prices were positively influenced by Return on Equity (ROE), Book Value (BV) and Price to Book Value (PBV), while negatively influenced by Debt To Equity Ratio (DER) and Net Profit. Margins (NPM). Based on the F test value, stock prices are positively influenced by ROE, DER, NPM, Earnings Per Share (EPS), BV, and PBV. Based on the coefficient of determination test (R2), stock prices are strongly influenced by ROE, DER, NPM, BV, and PBV by 91.5% and influenced by other variables by 8.5%.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR FUNDAMENTAL DAN PASAR TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2015 ◽  
pp. 12-30
Author(s):  
Anastasia F. Karo-Karo ◽  
Donalson Silalahi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Capitalization Rate ◽  
Value Growth

This study aimed to analyze the influence Earning Per Share, Return on Equity, Book Value, Growth Company and market factors, namely Capitalization Rate on stock price on manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The object of this research is manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2010-2012 period who actively publish the financial statements in the period of observation. In this study, the data collected is of secondary data is data obtained indirectly from the object of research. Therefore, in this study the data capture technique using the documentation techniques. The procedure of sample selection is purposive sampling and analysis model used is the Multiple regression to test the hypothesis that the t test and F test and also performed classical assumption. The results showed that the Earning Per Share, Return on Equity, Book Value positive and significant effect on stock prices and capitalization rates and a significant negative effect on stock prices. Based on the test results indicate that simultaneous Earning Per Share, Return on Equity, Book Value, Growth companies and capitalization rates affect stock prices. Variations independent variable Earning Per Share, Return on Equity, Book Value, Growth companies and capitalization rate is able to explain the variation in stock prices by 95.64%.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Likuiditas, Leverage, Profitabilitas dan Ukuran Perusahaan Terhadap Harga Saham Pada Perusahaan Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2013-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 74-82
Author(s):  
Shelvia Angeline ◽  
Jessy Safitri Sitorus
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Statistical Research ◽  
Mining Companies

This research aims to specify the effect of liquidity, leverage, profitability and company size on the stock price of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period of 2013-2017. This type of research is descriptive statistical research. The object of this research had been done on 26 mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange that were collected by purposive sampling. The data type that used in this research is called secondary data in the configuration of mining company financial statements for the period 2013-2017. The ratios used during this research are Current Ratio representing Liquidity, Debt to Equity Ratio that represents Leverage, Return On Assets representing Profitability and LN (Total Assets) representing Company Size. The analysis used is descriptive analysis, graph analysis also multiple linear regression analysis. The conclusion showed that liquidity had a positive and significant effect on stock prices. Leverage has a negative and not significant effect on stock prices. Profitability has a positive and significant effect on stock prices. Company Size has a negative and significant effect on stock prices.

scholarly journals Effect of Composite Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Share Price of Mining Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imaduddin Murdifin ◽  
Suriyanti Andi Mangkona
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aimed to examine the effect of Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)), the exchange rate, and interest rates on stock prices of mining companies listed in Indonesia stock Exchange. This research is associative with quantitative approach. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The data used is secondary data such as financial data, and the percentage of monthly interest rates over the last three years. The collection of data taken with documentation techniques derived from published reports of Bank Indonesia and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling was done by purposive sampling with the number nine companies. The results showed that the CSPI and interest rates but not significant positive effect on stock prices. The rupiah exchange rate and significant negative effect on stock prices. Simultaneously the composite stock price index, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

scholarly journals Analysis of the Effect of Financial Performance, Company Size on Stock Prices with Dividend Policy as Moderating Variable in Pharmaceutical Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2013-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 161-168
Author(s):  
Watikah Sururi ◽  
Idhar Yahya ◽  
Erwin Abubakar
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
A Company

Financial instrument shares as part-ownership rights of a company which is evidence of or participation in a company. This study analyzes the effect of profitability, solvency, activity liquidity, and company size on pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesian stock exchange for 2013 – 2019. This study will also examine the dividend policy variable used as the moderating variable in the research model. The population is pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2013 – 2019. All populations in this study were used as research samples of as many as nine companies. Moreover, the number of observations used was 63 observations. The type of data used is secondary data and the data analysis technique used in Panel Data Regression Analysis and Interaction Moderating Test with the help of EViews10 software. This study indicates that at alpha five percent, profitability and firm size have a significant positive effect on stock prices. In contrast, solvency, liquidity, and activity ratios have no significant effect on stock prices. This study also shows that dividend policy can strengthen the influence of solvency and liquidity on stock prices. However, dividend policy cannot moderate profitability, activity, firm size on stock prices. Keywords: Profitability, solvency, liquidity, activity, company size, dividend policy, stock price.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan dan Pertumbuhan Perusahaan terhadap Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) dan Implikasinya pada Harga Saham Perusahaan Perbankan yang Listing di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Megamawarni Megamawarni ◽  
Aliah Pratiwi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Company Growth

<em>The rapid technological developments have an impact on the opening of global trade opportunities so that banks that carry out intermediary functions in the financial sector will be increasingly needed. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of financial ratio and company growth on the stock price of banks with the status of State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) with Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) as an intervening variable. This study is quantitative research with an associative approach. The research population includes 44 banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The sample in this study amounted to four banks. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling. This study uses secondary data with data analysis methods used multiple linear regression analysis, partial test (t-test), and path analysis with the help of the SPSS version 23 application. This study indicates that DER significantly affects DPR, while ROE and company growth do not affect DPR. Furthermore, the DPR has a significant effect on stock prices, while DER and ROE have a significant effect on stock prices through the Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), and company growth does not affect stock prices mediated by the Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR).</em>

scholarly journals EARNING EFFECT PER SHARE (EPS), DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO (DER) AND RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE) ON STOCK PRICE

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 001
Author(s):  
Sigit Sanjaya ◽  
Susi Yuliastanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
Research Population ◽  
Equity Ratio

This research aims to discover the effect of 1) Earning Per Share (EPS) to stock price 2) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) to stock price 3) Return to Equity Ratio (ROE) to stock price. The research population is manufacturing company of food and beverage sub sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Samples are drawn by purposive sampling method. The total sample in this research is 14 companies. The data sourced is secondary data. Data analysis technique using multiple regression. The results showed 1) Earning per Share (EPS) has no significant effect on stock price 2) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) has no effect on stock price 3) Return on Equity Ratio (ROE) has a significant effect on stock prices

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