PREDICTION OF THE OCCURRENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF FATAL VASCULAR COMPLICATIONS IN COVID-19 USING FUZZY MATHEMATICAL MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-60
Author(s):  
Александр Владимирович Быков ◽  
Николай Алексеевич Кореневский ◽  
Артем Викторович Винников ◽  
Александр Иванович Безуглов
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Vascular Complications ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Fuzzy Decision ◽  
Diagnostic Measures ◽  
Thrombotic Complications ◽  
Infectious Disease Specialists ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Fuzzy Description

Целью исследования является разработка метода прогнозирования возникновения и развития тромботических осложнений (тромботических прецедентов), провоцируемых действием новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19) на организм человека, позволяющего усовершенствовать лечебно-диагностические мероприятия для пациентов с данной патологией. В качестве базового математического аппарата была выбрана методология синтеза гибридных нечетких решающих правил, хорошо зарекомендовавшая себя в процессе решения задач с нечётким описанием исследуемых классов со структурой данных аналогичной решаемой в работе задачи. В ходе проводимых исследований были синтезированы математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития тромботических прецедентов. Экспертное оценивание и математическое моделирование показали, что уверенность в правильном принятии решений по прогнозу появления и развития исследуемого класса тромботических осложнений превышает величину 0,9. В работе получены нечёткие математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития тромботических прецедентов у людей с подтверждённой коронавирусной инфекцией, для которой ведущим фактором риска является вторичный антифосфолипидный синдром с возникновением микроангиопатии. В ходе проведенных исследований была показана целесообразность использования полученных результатов в практике работы таких врачей, как иммунологи, инфекционисты, пульмонологи, кардиологи и сердечно-сосудистые хирурги The aim of the study is to develop a method for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic complications (thrombotic precedents) provoked by the action of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) on the human body, which allows improving therapeutic and diagnostic measures for patients with this pathology. The methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules was chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, which proved itself well in the process of solving problems with a fuzzy description of the classes under study with a data structure similar to the problem being solved in the work. In the course of the research, mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic precedents were synthesized. Expert evaluation and mathematical modeling have shown that confidence in the correct decision-making on the prognosis of the occurrence and development of the studied class of thrombotic complications exceeds 0.9. The paper presents fuzzy mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic precedents in people with confirmed coronavirus infection, for which the leading risk factor is secondary antiphospholipid syndrome with the occurrence of microangiopathy. In the course of the conducted studies, the expediency of using the results obtained in the practice of such doctors as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists, cardiologists and cardiovascular surgeons was shown

METHOD FOR PREDICTING FATAL COMPLICATIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CORONAVIRAL INFECTION ON THE BACKGROUND OF SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-69
Author(s):  
Артем Викторович Винников ◽  
Александр Владимирович Быков ◽  
Николай Алексеевич Кореневский ◽  
Людмила Петровна Лазурина ◽  
Полина Сергеевна Азарова ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Infectious Disease Specialists ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Fatal Complications

Целью исследования является разработка метода прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений, провоцируемых действием на организм человека новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19) на фоне иммунопролиферативных заболеваний, который позволит усовершенствовать лечебно-диагностические мероприятия при данной патологии. В качестве базового математического аппарата была выбрана методология синтеза гибридных нечетких решающих правил, которая хорошо зарекомендовала себя при решении задач с нечётким описанием исследуемых классов и схожим типом неопределенности. Предлагаемый метод прогнозирования позволяет учесть мультипликативный эффект воздействия на организм человека существенных факторов риска, характерных для рассматриваемого заболевания, с учетом его тяжести и скорости развития патологического процесса. В ходе проводимых исследований были синтезированы математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений. В ходе экспертного оценивания, математического моделирования и статистических испытаний показано, что уверенность в правильном принятии решений по прогнозу появления и развития исследуемого класса фатальных осложнений превышает величину 0,85. В работе получены нечёткие математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений у людей при развитии коронавирусной инфекции на фоне системной красной волчанки, для которых ведущими факторами риска являются вторичный антифосфолипидный синдром с нарушением микроциркуляции и гипоксемия. В ходе проведенных исследований была показана целесообразность использования полученных результатов в практике работы таких врачей, как иммунологи, инфекционисты, пульмонологи The aim of the study is to develop a method for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications provoked by the effect on the human body of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) against the background of immunoproliferative diseases, which will improve diagnostic and treatment measures for this pathology. The methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules was chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, which has proven itself well in solving problems with a fuzzy description of the classes under study and a similar type of uncertainty. The proposed forecasting method allows one to take into account the multiplicative effect of exposure to the human body of significant risk factors characteristic of the disease under consideration, taking into account its severity and the rate of development of the pathological process. In the course of the research, mathematical models were synthesized for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications. In the course of expert assessment, mathematical modeling and statistical tests, it was shown that confidence in the correct decision-making on the prediction of the appearance and development of the studied class of fatal complications exceeds 0.85, which makes it possible to recommend the results obtained during the study for implementation into the practice of such doctors. as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists. The work obtained fuzzy mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications in people with the development of coronavirus infection against the background of systemic lupus erythematosus, for which the leading risk factors are secondary antiphospholipid syndrome with microcirculation disorders and hypoxemia. In the course of the studies, the expediency of using the results obtained in the practice of the work of such doctors as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists was shown

scholarly journals A case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 with acute thrombotic cerebral infarction and generalized thrombosis

2021 ◽  
pp. 405-408
Author(s):  
Sylvia Nikolaeva Genova ◽  
Nikolaeva Genova ◽  
Mina Miroslavova Pencheva ◽  
Alexander Georgiev Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Cerebral Infarction ◽  
Viral Pneumonia ◽  
Autopsy Case ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Histological Changes ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Thrombotic Complications ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Brain

The full spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has not been fully described yet. COVID-19 is associated with a high risk of thrombotic complications such as venous thromboembolism and cerebrovascular disease. Here, we report an autopsy case of a 55-year-old woman diagnosed with severe viral pneumonia complicated by acute cerebral infarction and venous and arterial thrombosis in different organs. The patient died due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Macroscopically and histologically, in addition to viral pneumonia and diffuse hemorrhages, fibrin clots were found in arteries and venous vessels of medium and large size in the brain, lungs, and pancreas. Propagation of cerebrovascular thrombosis has led to extensive cerebral infarction. The dating of this infarction, according to the macroscopical findings and the histological changes, was between 24 and 48 h before death. This case confirms the hypothesis on the risk of generalized arterial and venous thromboses in coronavirus infection.

Hemorrhagic complications of а novel coronavirus infection: actual clinical problem.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
И.Б. Симарова ◽  
С.Н. Переходов ◽  
А.Ю. Буланов
Keyword(s):  
Case Reports ◽  
Clinical Problem ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Hemorrhagic Events ◽  
Thrombotic Complications ◽  
Predictive Role ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Therapeutic Doses

Гиперкоагуляционный характер коагулопатии, ассоциированной с новой коронавирусной инфекцией COVID-19, и высокий риск связанных с этим тромботических осложнений — хорошо известный факт на сегодняшний день. Тем не менее в литературе имеются описания и геморрагических событий у больных COVID. В обзоре приведен анализ публикаций, описывающих кровотечения при коронавирусной инфекции; общая частота их в среднем составляет 4–8%. Превалируют желудочно-кишечные кровотечения, существенную часть составляют межмышечные гематомы и кровоизлияния в кожу и слизистые. Показана предиктивная роль применения антикоагулянтов в терапевтических дозах и гипофибриногенемии. Отмечено отсутствие четкого понимания патофизиологических механизмов. Hypercoagulable character of coagulopathy associated with the novel coronavirus infection COVID-19, and the high risk of associated thrombotic complications is a well-known fact. However, there are also case reports of hemorrhagic events in COVID patients in the literature. The review summarizes the publications describing bleedings in coronavirus infection; their overall frequency is on average 4–8%. Gastrointestinal bleeding are prevalent, intermuscular hematomas and hemorrhages in the skin and mucous membranes are frequent. The predictive role of anticoagulants use in therapeutic doses and hypofibrinogenemia is shown. The absence of clear understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms is noted.

scholarly journals Assessment of Investment Attractiveness of Projects on the Basis of Environmental Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayabek Ziyadin ◽  
Elena Streltsova ◽  
Alex Borodin ◽  
Nataliya Kiseleva ◽  
Irina Yakovenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Environmental Criteria ◽  
Structured Knowledge ◽  
Matlab Package ◽  
The Impact

This article is devoted to the creation of intelligent modelling tools for decision support in the evaluation of intellectual projects submitted for financing, as based on qualitatively defined characteristics. The economic and mathematical models that form the basis of the toolkit are constructed using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic, which allows for the description of poorly structured knowledge of specialists, as well as their application in solving questions about the extent of the impact of the proposed projects on the environment. The authors classify investment projects according to the degree of impact on the environment, the environmental criteria required by the investor for the evaluation of investment projects, and the formal formulation of the problem of evaluation of investment projects when taking into account the environmental factor. The toolkit was created based on the concept of intellectualization, where economic and mathematical models for the evaluation of investment projects are programmatically implemented via the tools and functions available in the MATLAB package.

scholarly journals Substituting model-based indicators in Harvest Control Rules by observations using fuzzy logic methodology

2017 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 977-987
Author(s):  
Arne Eide
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Initial Information ◽  
Stock Size ◽  
Control Rules ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Size Evaluation ◽  
Harvest Control Rules

Abstract Harvest Control Rules are predefined heuristic decision rules to provide quota advices for managed fisheries. Frequently statistical methods and biological assumptions expressed in mathematical models, are used to provide the Harvest Control Rules with initial information (indicators values). The aim of this article is to investigate a possible way forward of replacing these inputs by quantities of measurable observations, e.g. catch-at-age statistics. The article presents a method by which recruitment indexes and stock biomass indicators are obtained by non-parametric use of annual catch-at-age records, without filtering the raw data (observations) through mathematical models. Two related methods, applied on three empirical cases, are provided: First, showing that recruitment strengths of the Northeast Arctic cod, haddock, and saithe stocks, obtained by fuzzy logic methodology, are satisfactory captures by the use of catch-at-age data. Second, stock size indicators are estimated for the three species by the same catch-at-age data. The second task turns out to be more challenging than the first, but also in the case of stock size evaluation, the suggested procedure provides reasonable results when compared to standard stock assessment methods.

scholarly journals Present-day Problems and Methods of Optimization in Mechatronics

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-165
Author(s):  
Wojciech Tarnowski
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problem ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Ranking Method ◽  
Concrete Case ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Value System ◽  
Iterative Optimization ◽  
Mechatronic Design ◽  
Fuzzy Description

Abstract It is justified that design is an inverse problem, and the optimization is a paradigm. Classes of design problems are proposed and typical obstacles are recognized. Peculiarities of the mechatronic designing are specified as a proof of a particle importance of optimization in the mechatronic design. Two main obstacles of optimization are discussed: a complexity of mathematical models and an uncertainty of the value system, in concrete case. Then a set of non-standard approaches and methods are presented and discussed, illustrated by examples: a fuzzy description, a constraint-based iterative optimization, AHP ranking method and a few MADM functions in Matlab.

scholarly journals Violation of hemostasis in coronavirus infection

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 6-15
Author(s):  
Yu. V. Shatohin ◽  
I. V. Snezhko ◽  
E. V. Ryabikina
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Criteria ◽  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
Clinical Implications ◽  
Blood Components ◽  
Complex Treatment ◽  
Adequate Therapy ◽  
Thrombotic Complications ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Coagulation Dynamics ◽  
Hemostatic Disorders

Hemostatic disorders in COVID-19 play an important role in the pathogenesis and clinical implications of the disease. The ability to identify factors and risk of developing thrombotic complications, to interpret the peripheral blood and coagulation dynamics, knowledge of diagnostic criteria possible of hemostatic disorders (DIC, sepsis-induced coagulopathy, antiphospholipid, hemophagocytic, hypercoagulation syndromes, etc.) are necessary to determine the scope of the survey, differentiated prescription of adequate therapy (including anticoagulants, blood components, plasmapheresis), which determines a greater efficiency of complex treatment and prognosis of patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals COVID-19-ASSOCIATED ACUTE LOWER LIMBS ISCHAEMIA IN ELDERLY AND SENILE PATIENTS: TREATMENT PROSPECTS (PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT)

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-16
Author(s):  
О. E. Kanikovsky ◽  
S. V. Sander ◽  
О. I. Bondarchuk ◽  
О. P. Fedzhaha ◽  
V. P. Malyarchuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Clotting ◽  
Limb Ischemia ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Amplitude Curve ◽  
Aim Analysis ◽  
Intraarterial Infusion ◽  
Tibial Arteries ◽  
Thrombotic Complications ◽  
Coronavirus Infection

Summery. The aim — analysis of preliminary experience of treatment of COVID-19-associated acute lower limbs ischemia in elderly and senile patients. Materials and methods. We examined 48 patients (age 60- 84 years). First group — 16 patients with COVID-19-associated acute lower limbs ischemia, second group — 32 patients with chronic limb ischemia without coronavirus infection. . Results and discussion. First group’s patients had extended blood clotting time (more than 13-15 min). Other blood clotting indicators changed slightly. An isoline or a low-amplitude curve was recorded during photoplethysmography. After thrombectomy (6 patients) 3 patients had fatal thrombotic complications (PE, myocardial infarction, stroke), 1 had progressive ischemia. Pharmacotherapy was performed in 10 patients (in 2 patients later than 12 hours from the onset of ischemia). The effectiveness of timely started pharmacotherapy reached 67 %. All patients of group II had arteriosclerosis of the tibial arteries. Blood clotting indicators were normal. A high-amplitude curve was recorded during photoplethysmography. Thus, all elderly and senile patients has arteriosclerosis of the tibial arteries. On this basis, there was a fatal coincidence (coagulopathy, a sharp slowdown in blood flow, endothelial dysfunction) in case of coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Prospects for further developments are the improvement of anticoagulant therapy (for example, the simultaneous use of unfractionated and low molecular weight heparin) and improving of collateral circulation (for example, nerve block and forced intraarterial infusion or lavage). Conclusion. Currently, the effectiveness of thrombectomy in elderly and senile patients with COVID-19-associated acute lower limbs ischemiа is 33 %, the effectiveness of timely started pharmacotherapy Is 67 %.

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