METHOD FOR PREDICTING FATAL COMPLICATIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CORONAVIRAL INFECTION ON THE BACKGROUND OF SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-69
Author(s):  
Артем Викторович Винников ◽  
Александр Владимирович Быков ◽  
Николай Алексеевич Кореневский ◽  
Людмила Петровна Лазурина ◽  
Полина Сергеевна Азарова ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Infectious Disease Specialists ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Fatal Complications

Целью исследования является разработка метода прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений, провоцируемых действием на организм человека новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19) на фоне иммунопролиферативных заболеваний, который позволит усовершенствовать лечебно-диагностические мероприятия при данной патологии. В качестве базового математического аппарата была выбрана методология синтеза гибридных нечетких решающих правил, которая хорошо зарекомендовала себя при решении задач с нечётким описанием исследуемых классов и схожим типом неопределенности. Предлагаемый метод прогнозирования позволяет учесть мультипликативный эффект воздействия на организм человека существенных факторов риска, характерных для рассматриваемого заболевания, с учетом его тяжести и скорости развития патологического процесса. В ходе проводимых исследований были синтезированы математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений. В ходе экспертного оценивания, математического моделирования и статистических испытаний показано, что уверенность в правильном принятии решений по прогнозу появления и развития исследуемого класса фатальных осложнений превышает величину 0,85. В работе получены нечёткие математические модели прогнозирования возникновения и развития фатальных осложнений у людей при развитии коронавирусной инфекции на фоне системной красной волчанки, для которых ведущими факторами риска являются вторичный антифосфолипидный синдром с нарушением микроциркуляции и гипоксемия. В ходе проведенных исследований была показана целесообразность использования полученных результатов в практике работы таких врачей, как иммунологи, инфекционисты, пульмонологи The aim of the study is to develop a method for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications provoked by the effect on the human body of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) against the background of immunoproliferative diseases, which will improve diagnostic and treatment measures for this pathology. The methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules was chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, which has proven itself well in solving problems with a fuzzy description of the classes under study and a similar type of uncertainty. The proposed forecasting method allows one to take into account the multiplicative effect of exposure to the human body of significant risk factors characteristic of the disease under consideration, taking into account its severity and the rate of development of the pathological process. In the course of the research, mathematical models were synthesized for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications. In the course of expert assessment, mathematical modeling and statistical tests, it was shown that confidence in the correct decision-making on the prediction of the appearance and development of the studied class of fatal complications exceeds 0.85, which makes it possible to recommend the results obtained during the study for implementation into the practice of such doctors. as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists. The work obtained fuzzy mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of fatal complications in people with the development of coronavirus infection against the background of systemic lupus erythematosus, for which the leading risk factors are secondary antiphospholipid syndrome with microcirculation disorders and hypoxemia. In the course of the studies, the expediency of using the results obtained in the practice of the work of such doctors as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists was shown

Risk Factors Associated with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Oman

2020 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asma Al-Kindi ◽  
Batool Hassan ◽  
Aliaa Al-Moqbali ◽  
Aliya Alansari
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Factors Associated

scholarly journals Predictors of renal damage in systemic lupus erythematous patients: data from a multiethnic, multinational Latin American lupus cohort (GLADEL)

RMD Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e001299
Author(s):  
Cristina Reátegui-Sokolova ◽  
Manuel F Ugarte-Gil ◽  
Guillermina B Harvey ◽  
Daniel Wojdyla ◽  
Guillermo J Pons-Estel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Renal Damage ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Damage Index ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Male Gender ◽  
Systemic Lupus

AimA decrease in proteinuria has been considered protective from renal damage in lupus nephritis (LN), but a cut-off point has yet to be established. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of renal damage in patients with LN and to determine the best cut-off point for a decrease in proteinuria.MethodsWe included patients with LN defined clinically or histologically. Possible predictors of renal damage at the time of LN diagnosis were examined: proteinuria, low complement, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies, red cell casts, creatinine level, hypertension, renal activity (assessed by the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI)), prednisone dose, immunosuppressive drugs and antimalarial use. Sociodemographic variables were included at baseline. Proteinuria was assessed at baseline and at 12 months, to determine if early response (proteinuria <0.8 g/day within 12 months since LN diagnosis) is protective of renal damage occurrence. Renal damage was defined as an increase of one or more points in the renal domain of The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index (SDI). Cox regression models using a backward selection method were performed.ResultsFive hundred and two patients with systemic lupus erythematosus patients were included; 120 patients (23.9%) accrued renal damage during their follow-up. Early response to treatment (HR=0.58), antimalarial use (HR=0.54) and a high SES (HR=0.25) were protective of renal damage occurrence, whereas male gender (HR=1.83), hypertension (HR=1.86) and the renal component of the SLEDAI (HR=2.02) were risk factors for its occurrence.ConclusionsEarly response, antimalarial use and high SES were protective of renal damage, while male gender, hypertension and higher renal activity were risk factors for its occurrence in patients with LN.

scholarly journals AB0507 INVASIVE ASPERGILLOSIS IN ADULT RHEUMATOLOGICAL PATIENTS IN SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA.

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1551.1-1552
Author(s):  
V. Mazurov ◽  
O. Shadrivova ◽  
M. Shostak ◽  
L. Martynova ◽  
M. Tonkoshkur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Invasive Aspergillosis ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Anca Associated Vasculitis ◽  
Underlying Diseases

Background:Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a severe opportunistic infection that is not well understood in rheumatological patients.Objectives:To study risk factors, etiology, clinical manifestations and results of treatment of IA in adult rheumatological patients.Methods:Retrospective analysis of 830 patients (1998-2019) with “proven” and “probable” IA (EORTC / MSG, 2019), adults - 699 (84%). The main group included 18 (3%) adult rheumatological patients with IA, a control group included 610 (87%) adult hematological patients. Rheumatological patients were older, the average age was 59 years (21–75) vs 45 years (18–79), p = 0.005, and among them there were more women – 56% vs 42%, p = 0.01.Results:In rheumatological patients with IA, underlying diseases were ANCA-associated vasculitis (28%), granulomatosis with polyangiitis (22%), periarteritis (11%), systemic lupus erythematosus (22%), rheumatic heart disease (11%) and ankylosing spondylitis (6%). In the control group, underlying diseases were acute leukemia (45%), lymphomas (34%), chronic leukemia (9%), multiple myeloma (7%), myelodysplastic syndrome (3%), and other hematological diseases (2%).The main risk factors for IA development in rheumatological patients were: systemic steroids use (89% vs 69%), prolonged lymphocytopenia (76% vs 65%, median - 14 vs 12 days), treatment in ICU (44% vs 18%, p = 0.01), acute or chronic renal failure (39% vs 1%, p = 0.0008) and immunosuppressive therapy (28% vs 25%). Severe neutropenia was noted significantly less frequently (18% vs 83%, p = 0.0001). Additional risk factors were decompensated diabetes mellitus (17% vs 2%, p = 0.004), previous surgery (17% vs 1%, p = 0.001) and organ transplantation (6% vs 0%). In rheumatological patients, lung (83% vs 98%, p = 0.0001) and ≥2 organs (6% vs 8%) involvement were less common. Heart (11% vs 0%), sinuses (6% vs 5%) and central nervous system (6% vs 4%) involvement more often developed. In rheumatological patients, respiratory failure (61 vs 37%, p = 0.03), hemoptysis (28% vs 7%, p = 0.0001) and chest pain (17% vs 7%, p = 0, 04) were noted more often, less often - fever ≥380С (67% vs 85%, p = 0.01) and cough (61% vs 70%). CT signs of lung damage were similar in both groups, but rheumatologic patients were more likely to show an «air crescent» sign and / or destruction cavity (44% vs 10%, p = 0.0001). In rheumatologic patients, IA was more often confirmed by isolation ofAspergillusspp. from BAL (80% vs 45%, p = 0.005) and by histological examination (22% vs 7%, p = 0.01). The main pathogens wereA. fumigatus(50% vs 43%),A. niger(29% vs 32%), andA. flavus(14% vs 17%).Rheumatological patients were less likely to receive antifungal therapy 89% vs 99%, p = 0,0003. The main drug in both groups was voriconazole. The overall 12-week survival did not significantly differ between groups, but was lower in rheumatological patients with IA (69% vs 81%).Conclusion:In rheumatological patients, invasive aspergillosis more often developed at an older age, mainly in women. The main background diseases were ANCA-associated vasculitis, granulomatosis with polyangiitis, and systemic lupus erythematosus. Typical risk factors were steroids and immunosuppressants use, prolonged lymphocytopenia, ICU stay, and renal failure. The main causative agents wereA. fumigatus,A. niger, andA. flavus. The main localization of infection were lungs. Respiratory failure, hemoptysis and heart involvement were typical. The overall 12-week survival of rheumatological patients with invasive aspergillosis was 69%.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

Risk of osteonecrosis in systemic lupus erythematosus: An 11-year Chinese single-center cohort study

Lupus ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 096120332110211
Author(s):  
Yin Long ◽  
Shangzhu Zhang ◽  
Jiuliang Zhao ◽  
Hanxiao You ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Femoral Head ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Femoral Head Necrosis ◽  
Joint Involvement ◽  
Multiple Site ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Cns Involvement

Objective Osteonecrosis (ON), which can lead to physical disability, is a common complication of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of ON and identify possible risk factors in Chinese SLE patients. Methods SLE patients who fulfilled the 1997 American College of Rheumatology SLE classification criteria were recruited from the Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The chi-square test (χ 2 test) and multivariate regression analyses were used to evaluate risk factors. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to construct the survival curves and estimate the simultaneous effects of prognostic factors on survival. Results We consecutively enrolled 1,158 patients, of which 88 patients (7.6%) developed ON. Among ON patients, 57.1% of patients had isolated femoral head necrosis and 42.9% had multiple joint involvement. The mean age of ON patients (24.62 ± 8.89 years) was significantly younger than SLE patients without ON (27.23 ± 10.16 years, p = 0.09). The ON group presented with a much longer disease course (10.68 ± 5.97 years, p < 0.001) and increased incidence of arthritis, kidney, and central nervous system (CNS) involvement (65.9% [ p < 0.05], 57.6% [ p < 0.05], and 16.5% [ p < 0.05], respectively, in the ON group). ON patients were more likely to be treated with glucocorticoid (GC) and to receive a high dose of prednisolone at the initial stage of SLE ( p < 0.05). The percentage of patients who received hydroxychloroquine was much higher in the control group ( p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis suggested that CNS involvement and GC therapy were two independent risk factors for ON in SLE patients. The presence of anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPLs) was a risk factor for multiple joint necrosis (odds ratio: 6.28, p = 0.009). Conclusions ON remains a serious and irreversible complication in SLE. In addition to glucocorticoid therapy, we found that CNS system involvement was a risk factor for ON, while the administration of hydroxychloroquine was a protective factor. The clinical characteristics of multiple site ON patients were distinct from isolated femoral head necrosis patients. The presence of aPLs was a risk factor for multiple site osteonecrosis.

scholarly journals Disease activity index is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscila B. S. Medeiros ◽  
Roberta G. Salomão ◽  
Sara R. Teixeira ◽  
Diane M. Rassi ◽  
Luciana Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Subclinical Atherosclerosis ◽  
Disease Activity Index ◽  
Uncontrolled Hypertension ◽  
Childhood Onset ◽  
Systemic Lupus

Abstract Background Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events. The present study determined the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis in childhood-onset SLE using the carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) measurement and investigated associations between traditional and nontraditional risk factors for atherosclerosis, such as medications, SLE Disease Activity Index - SLEDAI-2 K and SLICC-ACR damage index and CIMT. Methods Cross-sectional prospective study between 2017 and 2018. CIMT was assessed by ultrasonography. Data were collected by chart review, nutritional evaluation and laboratory tests and analyzed by Fisher, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests, multiple linear and log binomial regression. Results Twenty-eight patients (mean age 13.9 years, SD 3) were enrolled. The prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis was 32% (95% CI 14.8, 49.4). The mean CIMT was 0.43 ± 0.035 mm. The most common traditional risk factors observed were dyslipidemia (82.1%), uncontrolled hypertension (14.2%), obesity (14.3%), and poor diet (78.6%). Uncontrolled hypertension (p = 0.04), proteinuria (p = 0.02), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 75 ml /min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.02) and SLEDAI-2 K > 5 (P = 0.04) were associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. SLEDAI-2 K > 5 maintained association with CIMT after adjusting for control variables. Conclusion Subclinical atherosclerosis is frequently observed in cSLE, mainly in patients with moderate to severe disease activity.

scholarly journals Autoantibodies in Neuropsychiatric Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (NPSLE): Can They Be Used as Biomarkers for the Differential Diagnosis of This Disease?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Manca
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Central Nervous System ◽  
Nervous System ◽  
Differential Diagnosis ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Symptoms ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
The Central Nervous System

AbstractSystemic lupus erythematosus is a complex immunological disease where both environmental factors and genetic predisposition lead to the dysregulation of important immune mechanisms. Eventually, the combination of these factors leads to the production of self-reactive antibodies that can target any organ or tissue of the human body. Autoantibodies can form immune complexes responsible for both the organ damage and the most severe complications. Involvement of the central nervous system defines a subcategory of the disease, generally known with the denomination of neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus. Neuropsychiatric symptoms can range from relatively mild manifestations, such as headache, to more severe complications, such as psychosis. The evaluation of the presence of the autoantibodies in the serum of these patients is the most helpful diagnostic tool for the assessment of the disease. The scientific progresses achieved in the last decades helped researchers and physicians to discover some of autoepitopes targeted by the autoantibodies, although the majority of them have not been identified yet. Additionally, the central nervous system is full of epitopes that cannot be found elsewhere in the human body, for this reason, autoantibodies that selectively target these epitopes might be used for the differential diagnosis between patients with and without the neuropsychiatric symptoms. In this review, the most relevant data is reported with regard to mechanisms implicated in the production of autoantibodies and the most important autoantibodies found among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus with and without the neuropsychiatric manifestations.

scholarly journals Comparison of risk factors for vascular disease in the carotid artery and aorta in women with systemic lupus erythematosus

2004 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith Selzer ◽  
Kim Sutton-Tyrrell ◽  
Shirley G. Fitzgerald ◽  
Joan E. Pratt ◽  
Russell P. Tracy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Carotid Artery ◽  
Vascular Disease ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Systemic Lupus

scholarly journals Semiquantified Noncalcified Coronary Plaque in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2286-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADNAN N. KIANI ◽  
JENS VOGEL-CLAUSSEN ◽  
ARMIN ARBAB-ZADEH ◽  
LAURENCE S. MAGDER ◽  
JOAO LIMA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Factors ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Coronary Plaque ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
History Of ◽  
Noncalcified Plaque

Objective.A major cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is accelerated coronary atherosclerosis. New technology (computed tomographic angiography) can measure noncalcified coronary plaque (NCP), which is more prone to rupture. We report on a study of semiquantified NCP in SLE.Methods.Patients with SLE (n = 147) with no history of cardiovascular disease underwent 64-slice coronary multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). The MDCT scans were evaluated quantitatively by a radiologist, using dedicated software.Results.The group of 147 patients with SLE was 86% female, 70% white, 29% African American, and 3% other ethnicity. The mean age was 51 years. In our univariate analysis, the major traditional cardiovascular risk factors associated with noncalcified plaque were age (p = 0.007), obesity (p = 0.03; measured as body mass index), homocysteine (p = 0.05), and hypertension (p = 0.04). Anticardiolipin (p = 0.026; but not lupus anticoagulant) and anti-dsDNA (p = 0.03) were associated with higher noncalcified plaque. Prednisone and hydroxychloroquine therapy had no effect, but methotrexate (MTX) use was associated with higher noncalcified plaque (p = 0.0001). In the best multivariate model, age, current MTX use, and history of anti-dsDNA remained significant.Conclusion.Our results suggest that serologic SLE (anti-dsDNA) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors contribute to semiquantified noncalcified plaque in SLE. The association with MTX is not understood, but should be replicated in larger studies and in multiple centers.

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