Bayesian Tragedy and Categorical Medical Error in Prostate Cancer
The Bayesian concept is complex and contrary to intuition, but it is fundamental in the practice of medicine as well as in biotechnological development. We expect that a tragedy of ignoring the Bayesian concept will result clear to the reader who should acquire the tools to recognize its meaning, as well as, its use; but especially, to visualize the serious consequences of ignoring it. The physician is not mystically fascinated for knowing what percentage of patients who has prostate cancer have no symptoms (47%), urinary frequency (38%), urinary urgency (10%), decreased urine stream (23%) or hematuria (1.4%). What the physician and every patient want and vitally need to know is the probability of having prostate cancer, giving that he has one or more of those symptoms. Keywords: Medical Errors; Iatrogenic disease; Sensitivity and specificity; Diagnostic Techniques and procedures