scholarly journals Quantitative rockfall hazard and risk analysis in selected municipalities of the České Švýcarsko National Park, northwestern Czechia

Geografie ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Blahůt ◽  
Jan Klimeš ◽  
Zuzana Vařilová
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Natural Process ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Rockfall Hazard ◽  
Specific Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis ◽  
Modelling Approach

Quantitative rockfall hazard and specific risk assessment of the selected municipalities within the České Švýcarsko National Park was performed using two rockfall hazard analysis modelling codes. CONEFALL and RockFall Analyst codes were used to delimit rockfall hazard regions. Specific risk to buildings was consequently assessed using results from the hazard analysis and literature-derived vulnerability values. Results of hazard and risk assessments for two nearby municipalities were compared and evaluated. Both models provide similar rockfall hazard values in areas characterized with relatively steep (36°–50°), convex and short slopes (up to 200 m). Whereas in regions with less steep (20°–35°), concave and longer slopes (about 350 m) the predicted rockfall hazard differs considerably. We argue that the results of the RockFall Analyst are more reliable due to complex input data and modelling approach which closely resembles the natural process of falling rocks on forested slopes. Differences in hazard assessment are further reflected in assigning risk values to exposed buildings, where CONEFALL is more conservative.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörn Behrens ◽  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Research Gaps ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Accelerating Global Science on Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis (AGITHAR)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joern Behrens ◽  
Inigo Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
Sebastiano D'Amico ◽  
Frederic Dias ◽  
Ira Didenkulova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Global Science ◽  
First Results ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

<p>Recent tsunami disasters revealed severe gaps between the anticipated level of hazard and the true extent of the event, with resulting loss of life and property. The severe consequences were underestimated in part due to the lack of rigorous and accepted hazard analysis methods and large uncertainty in forecasting the tsunami source mechanism and strength. Uncertainty and underestimation of the hazard and risk resulted in insufficient preparedness measures. While there is no absolute protection against disasters of the scale of mega tsunamis, a more accurate analysis of the potential risk can help to minimize losses from tsunami.<br>After the major events in 2004 and 2011 many new initiatives originated novel methods for tsunami hazard and risk analysis. However, rigorous performance assessment and evaluation – with respect to guiding principles in tsunami hazard and risk analysis – has not been conducted. In particular, comprehensive uncertainty assessments and related standards are required in order to implement more robust and reliable hazard analysis strategies and, ultimately, better mitigate tsunami impact. This is the core challenge of the proposed COST Action Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis (AGITHAR).<br>In our presentation we will demonstrate first results of the Action, assessing research gaps, open questions, and a very coarse roadmap for future research.</p>

Rockfall hazard and risk analysis for Monte da Lua, Sintra, Portugal

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
José António de Almeida ◽  
José Carlos Kullberg
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Rockfall Hazard ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

scholarly journals Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Didier Hantz ◽  
Jordi Corominas ◽  
Giovanni B. Crosta ◽  
Michel Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Rockfall Hazard ◽  
Process Failure ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Element At Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Assessment ◽  
Definition Of

There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests using terms that appear to be the most logic and explicit as possible and describes methods to derive some of the main hazards and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized and diffuse hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed, and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the reach probability, and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (passage frequency) can be derived. This frequency is relevant for risk assessment when the element at risk can be damaged several times. If it is not replaced, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall is more relevant.

Preliminary Hazard and Risk Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Bruce Lyon ◽  
Georgi Popov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

What is the Smallest Earthquake Magnitude that Needs to be Considered in Assessing Liquefaction Hazard?

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 1441-1464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell A. Green ◽  
Julian J. Bommer
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Soil Profiles ◽  
Building Structures ◽  
Liquefaction Hazard ◽  
Soil Deposits ◽  
Earthquake Size ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Potential Impact

Probabilistic assessments of the potential impact of earthquakes on infrastructure entails the consideration of smaller magnitude events than those generally considered in deterministic hazard and risk assessments. In this context, it is useful to establish if there is a magnitude threshold below which the possibility of triggering liquefaction can be discounted because such a lower bound is required for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analyses. Based on field observations and a simple parametric study, we conclude that earthquakes as small as moment magnitude 4.5 can trigger liquefaction in extremely susceptible soil deposits. However, for soil profiles that are suitable for building structures, the minimum earthquake magnitude for the triggering of liquefaction is about 5. We therefore propose that in liquefaction hazard assessments of building sites, magnitude 5.0 be adopted as the minimum earthquake size considered, while magnitudes as low as 4.5 may be appropriate for some other types of infrastructure.

scholarly journals An approach for flood hazard modelling and mapping in the medium Valtellina

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1141-1151 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Poretti ◽  
M. De Amicis
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Experimental Modelling ◽  
Hydrodynamic Simulations ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
Legislative Framework ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. In the Lombardy Region, as in many other contexts all over the world, hazard maps do not have a precise legislative confirmation. Despite this, they are necessary to support several institutional activities, and among these, local urban planning. An approach to hazard analysis and mapping that fits the Lombardy Region legislative framework is presented here that introduces a level of experimental modelling, making use of SOBEK 1-D–2-D as a tool for hydrodynamic simulations. A stretch of 17 km of the Adda river in Valtellina has been modelled, referring to twelve scenarios characterised by different temporal probabilities, and comprising the main sources of uncertainty. The results were compared with available local hydraulic studies, and combined to obtain two complementary flood hazard maps which could usefully support urban planning. Advantages and drawbacks of this modelling approach, together with considerations related to flood hazard mapping are discussed.

Overview of Pipeline Geohazard Assessment Approaches and Strategies

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moness Rizkalla ◽  
R. S. (Rod) Read
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Fitness For Purpose ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Geohazard Risk ◽  
Geohazard Assessment ◽  
Do So

Undertaking a systematic pipeline geohazard assessment may be driven by the design and regulatory permitting needs for proposed new pipelines or as an input to the integrity management of operating pipeline assets. Yet the leading international pipeline codes do not provide explicit direction on undertaking such assessments, rather providing considerable latitude in the guidance to do so which in turn provides several options. The methods for identifying and assessing the potential likelihood and severity of geohazards vary significantly, from purely expert judgment-based approaches relying largely on visual observations of geomorphology to analytically-intensive methods incorporating phenomenological and/or mechanistic models and route, pipeline properties and, where applicable, operational monitoring data. Each of these methods can be used to assess hazard and risk associated with specific geohazards in terms of qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative approaches provided that associated underlying assumptions are clearly understood. Some of these methods are better suited to provide a continuous contiguous geohazard risk assessment for a pipeline system while others are better suited for localized site-specific risk assessments. Following a brief review of pipeline codes, this paper provides an overview of the range of pipeline geohazard assessment approaches and explores the “fitness for purpose” strategy that allows for continuing improvement during design stages and into operations.

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