scholarly journals A Bayesian approach to developing a strategic early warning system for the French milk market

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Bisson ◽  
Furkan Gurpinar
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Future State ◽  
Robust Decisions ◽  
Public Organisations ◽  
Milk Market ◽  
Eu Commission ◽  
The Eu

A new approach is provided in our paper for creating a strategic early warningsystem allowing the estimation of the future state of the milk market as scenarios. This is inline with the recent call from the EU commission for tools that help to better address such ahighly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesiannetworks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro-economic indicators. Theevaluation of our findings with root mean square error (RMSE) performance score enhancesthe robustness of the prediction model constructed. Our model could be used by competitiveintelligence teams to obtain sharper scenarios, leading companies and public organisations tobetter anticipate market changes and make more robust decisions.

scholarly journals The European Approach to Building AI Policy and Governance: A Haven for Bureaucrats or Innovators?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Olga Shumilo ◽  
Tanel Kerikmäe
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Considerable Effort ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Human Control ◽  
Disruptive Technologies ◽  
Legislative Proposal ◽  
Efficient Manufacturing ◽  
Eu Commission ◽  
The Eu

Disruptive technologies and the domination of digital platforms have challenged the global economy players twice — first, to get a hand on them, then to mitigate the possible risks. It is beyond doubt that reliable artificial intelligence (AI) can bring many benefits at the European level, such as better health care, safer and cleaner transport, more efficient manufacturing, and sustainable energy. But regulating the unknown requires considerable effort on how to attract investors using clear rules while keeping human control over the algorithms as a priority. In April 2021, the EU Commission published a holistic proposal to regulate the use of AI, which promises to put trust first and ensure that facial recognition and big data operators will never abuse fundamental human rights. Although the proposal is likely to be amended during EU-wide discussions, the new approach to AI will clearly give citizens the reassurance to adopt these technologies while encouraging companies to develop them. Hence, this article aims to map the core challenges for the EU policy on the use of AI, as well as the milestones of developing the holistic legislative proposal, and clarify if the afore-mentioned proposal indeed solves all the AI-related risks for future generations.

scholarly journals The legal street: a scarcity approach to urban open space in mobility transitions

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett J. M. Petzer ◽  
Anna J. Wieczorek ◽  
Geert P. J. Verbong
Keyword(s):  
Urban Space ◽  
Open Space ◽  
National Level ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Urban Open Space ◽  
Space Allocation ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Lock In ◽  
The Eu

AbstractAn urban mobility transition requires a transition in space allocation, since most mobility modes are dependent on urban open space for circulation and the storage of vehicles. Despite increasing attention to space and spatiality in transitions research, the finite, physical aspects of urban space, and the means by which it is allocated, have not been adequately acknowledged as an influence on mobility transitions. A conceptual framework is introduced to support comparison between cities in terms of the processes by which open space is (re-)distributed between car and bicycle circulatory and regulatory space. This framework distinguishes between regulatory allocation mechanisms and the appropriation practices of actors. Application to cases in Amsterdam, Brussels and Birmingham reveal unique relationships created by the zero-sum nature of urban open space between the dominant automobility mode and subordinate cycling mode. These relationships open up a new approach to forms of lock-in that work in favour of particular mobility modes within the relatively obdurate urban built environment. Empirically, allocation mechanisms that routinise the production of car space at national level within the EU are shown to be far more prevalent than those for bicycle space, highlighting the constraints faced by radical city-level policies aimed at space reallocation.

Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Untapped Potential of V4 Parliaments in EU Affairs

2021 ◽  
pp. 088832542110127
Author(s):  
Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka ◽  
Jan Grinc
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Veto Players ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Green Card ◽  
Policy Ideas ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
The Eu

This article offers the first ever comparative analysis of the involvement of V4 parliaments in the sphere of European Union (EU) affairs. Its underlying research objective is to determine what conditions V4’s parliamentary participation in various EU-oriented activities such as domestic scrutiny of the government’s EU policy, the political dialogue with the Commission, the Early Warning System for subsidiarity control, and the green card initiative. Based on the actual scrutiny output, parliamentary minutes, and data from questionnaires, we address the questions: (1) To what extent domestic legislatures act as autonomous as opposed to government-supporting actors in these arenas? (2) Do they mostly act as EU veto players, or try to contribute constructively to the EU policy-making process by bringing alternative policy ideas? (3) What are their motivations for engaging in direct dialogue with EU institutions in addition to domestic scrutiny? and (4) How MPs envisage their own EU-oriented roles? While the article reveals that V4 parliaments mostly act as gatekeepers in the sphere of EU affairs, it also casts a new light on the previous literature findings related to the EU-oriented performance of the Czech and Polish lower chambers. We conclude that, generally, V4 parliaments refrain from fully exploiting their relatively strong formal prerogatives in EU affairs—a fact that can be partly explained by the composition of their ruling majorities.

scholarly journals Ergot Alkaloids in Wheat and Rye Derived Products in Italy

Foods ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Debegnach ◽  
Simona Patriarca ◽  
Carlo Brera ◽  
Emanuela Gregori ◽  
Elisa Sonego ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Durum Wheat ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Plant Pathogen ◽  
Ergot Alkaloids ◽  
Cereal Grains ◽  
Wheat Bread ◽  
Claviceps Purpurea ◽  
Eu Commission ◽  
Ongoing Monitoring ◽  
The Eu

Genus Claviceps is a plant pathogen able to produce a group of toxins, ergot alkaloids (EAs), whose effects have been known since the Middle Ages (ergotism). Claviceps purpurea is the most important representative specie, known to infect more than 400 monocotyledonous plants including economically important cereal grains (e.g., rye, wheat, triticale). EAs are not regulated as such. Maximum limits are in the pipeline of the EU Commission while at present ergot sclerotia content is set by the Regulation (EC) No. 1881/2006 in unprocessed cereals (0.05% as a maximum). This study aimed to investigate the presence of the six principal EAs (ergometrine, ergosine, ergocornine, α-ergocryptine, ergotamine and ergocristine) and their relative epimers (-inine forms) in rye- and wheat-based products. Of the samples, 85% resulted positive for at least one of the EAs. Wheat bread was the product with the highest number of positivity (56%), followed by wheat flour (26%). Rye and wheat bread samples showed the highest values when the sum of the EAs was considered, and durum wheat bread was the more contaminated sample (1142.6 μg/kg). These results suggest that ongoing monitoring of EAs in food products is critical until maximum limits are set.

scholarly journals Co-Movements between Eu Ets and the Energy Markets: A Var-Dcc-Garch Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (15) ◽  
pp. 1787
Author(s):  
Pilar Gargallo ◽  
Luis Lample ◽  
Jesús A. Miguel ◽  
Manuel Salvador
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Eu Ets ◽  
The Eu

This paper analyzes the co-movements of prices of fossil fuels, energy stock markets and EU allowances. This analysis is conducted in order to identify the spillover effect of volatility and correlation among these financial markets, and to provide a scientific basis that shows the interest of incorporating sustainable assets in the design of minimum risk strategies of investment. To achieve this goal, we have used a Vector Autoregressive-Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (VAR-DCC-GARCH) model that also incorporates a stock index of industrial companies as a leading indicator of the level of economic activity. In addition, the paper conducts an impulse response analysis to determine how unexpected shocks to prices are propagated along time, and, in particular, how they affect prices of the others, both in mean, variance and correlation. Therefore, the results of this one- and two-dimensional analysis allow for the study of short and long run dynamics of the relationship among those prices, thus, providing greater meaning and information for investors, which has implications for building their portfolios. The analyzed period was from January 2010 to February 2021, so that the data include half of phase II, full phase III and the onset of phase IV of the EU ETS, as well as the COVID-19 outbreak in the European context. We also analyzed whether the EUA price impulses the demand of clean energy stocks, which has important implications for the objective of triggering the investment in clean energy. Our results show the transmission mechanism of all of those prices, which are relevant not only for investors but also for policymakers to construct an early-warning system, revealing the most important transmission channels. Moreover, from an investment viewpoint, we observe a decline in dirty energies and a rise in the clean energy market, which might be an indication of the progress towards the energy transition to renewables sources within a circular economy perspective. Therefore, this shows that the EU ETS is achieving its goals, and that clean energy companies, aligned with their role towards socially responsible initiatives, are also gaining acceptance in terms of investments, which would be beneficial for the environment.

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