scholarly journals Mathematical models of contact patterns between age groups for predicting the spread of infectious diseases

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 1475-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nakul Chitnis ◽  
J. M. Hyman ◽  
Sara Y. Del Valle
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Patterns

scholarly journals Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. e1009098
Author(s):  
Kiesha Prem ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Synthetic Matrices ◽  
Geographical Locations

Mathematical models have played a key role in understanding the spread of directly-transmissible infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the effectiveness of public health responses. As the risk of contracting directly-transmitted infections depends on who interacts with whom, mathematical models often use contact matrices to characterise the spread of infectious pathogens. These contact matrices are usually generated from diary-based contact surveys. However, the majority of places in the world do not have representative empirical contact studies, so synthetic contact matrices have been constructed using more widely available setting-specific survey data on household, school, classroom, and workplace composition combined with empirical data on contact patterns in Europe. In 2017, the largest set of synthetic contact matrices to date were published for 152 geographical locations. In this study, we update these matrices with the most recent data and extend our analysis to 177 geographical locations. Due to the observed geographic differences within countries, we also quantify contact patterns in rural and urban settings where data is available. Further, we compare both the 2017 and 2020 synthetic matrices to out-of-sample empirically-constructed contact matrices, and explore the effects of using both the empirical and synthetic contact matrices when modelling physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the synthetic contact matrices show qualitative similarities to the contact patterns in the empirically-constructed contact matrices. Models parameterised with the empirical and synthetic matrices generated similar findings with few differences observed in age groups where the empirical matrices have missing or aggregated age groups. This finding means that synthetic contact matrices may be used in modelling outbreaks in settings for which empirical studies have yet to be conducted.

scholarly journals Contact patterns and their implied basic reproductive numbers: an illustration for varicella-zoster virus

2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. VAN EFFELTERRE ◽  
Z. SHKEDY ◽  
M. AERTS ◽  
G. MOLENBERGHS ◽  
P. VAN DAMME ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Varicella Zoster Virus ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Seroprevalence Data

SUMMARYThe WAIFW matrix (Who Acquires Infection From Whom) is a central parameter in modelling the spread of infectious diseases. The calculation of the basic reproductive number (R0) depends on the assumptions made about the transmission within and between age groups through the structure of the WAIFW matrix and different structures might lead to different estimates for R0 and hence different estimates for the minimal immunization coverage needed for the elimination of the infection in the population. In this paper, we estimate R0 for varicella in Belgium. The force of infection is estimated from seroprevalence data using fractional polynomials and we show how the estimate of R0 is heavily influenced by the structure of the WAIFW matrix.

scholarly journals Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: an update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiesha Prem ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Rosalind M Eggo ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Synthetic Matrices ◽  
Geographical Locations

Mathematical models have played a key role in understanding the spread of directly-transmissible infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the effectiveness of public health responses. As the risk of contracting directly-transmitted infections depends on who interacts with whom, mathematical models often use contact matrices to characterise the spread of infectious pathogens. These contact matrices are usually generated from diary-based contact surveys. However, the majority of places in the world do not have representative empirical contact studies, so synthetic contact matrices have been constructed using more widely available setting-specific survey data on household, school, classroom, and workplace composition combined with empirical data on contact patterns in Europe. In 2017, the largest set of synthetic contact matrices to date were published for 152 geographical locations. In this study, we update these matrices with the most recent data and extend our analysis to 177 geographical locations. Due to the observed geographic differences within countries, we also quantify contact patterns in rural and urban settings where data is available. Further, we compare both the 2017 and 2020 synthetic matrices to out-of-sample empirically-constructed contact matrices, and explore the effects of using both the empirical and synthetic contact matrices when modelling physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the synthetic contact matrices reproduce the main traits of the contact patterns in the empirically-constructed contact matrices. Models parameterised with the empirical and synthetic matrices generated similar findings with few differences observed in age groups where the empirical matrices have missing or aggregated age groups. This finding means that synthetic contact matrices may be used in modelling outbreaks in settings for which empirical studies have yet to be conducted.

Haemophilia Registry of the Medical Committee of the Swiss Haemophilia Society

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (S 01) ◽  
pp. S16-S18 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Brand ◽  
N. von der Weid
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mutation Analysis ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Severity Of The Disease

SummaryThe Swiss Haemophilia Registry of the Medical Committee of the Swiss Haemophilia Society was established in 2000. Primarily it bears epidemiological and basic clinical data (incidence, type and severity of the disease, age groups, centres, mortality). Two thirds of the questions of the WFH Global Survey can be answered, especially those concerning use of concentrates (global, per capita) and treatment modalities (on-demand versus prophylactic regimens). Moreover, the registry is an important tool for quality control of the haemophilia treatment centres.There are no informations about infectious diseases like hepatitis or HIV, due to non-anonymisation of the data. We plan to incorporate the results of the mutation analysis in the future.

Results of Surveillance Studies of Infectious Fish Diseases in Freshwater Aquaculture of Ukraine

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Matvienko ◽  
A. Vashchenko ◽  
I. Tsiganok ◽  
L. Buchatsky
Keyword(s):  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Cell Cultures ◽  
Standardized Test ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis Virus ◽  
Test System ◽  
Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus Mykiss ◽  
Freshwater Aquaculture ◽  
Pancreatic Necrosis Virus

Aim. To investigate the epizootic state of fi sheries in Ukraine; to study the biological specifi cities of viral and bacterial isolates of fi sh in freshwater aquaculture. Methods. The epizootic state of fi sheries was defi ned ac- cording to the surveillance plan for fi sheries, virological (biosampling of sensitive fi sh species, virus isolation on sensitive passaged cell cultures), serological (enzyme immunoassay, virus neutralization test using sensitive passaged cell cultures) and molecular-biological (reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction − RTPCR) methods of investigation were used. The pathogenicity of the isolated bacteria was studied in the biosample. The identifi cation was performed using Bergey’s Manual. The express-identifi cation of bacteria was performed using the standardized test-system API 20E Bio Merieux (France). Results. The IPNV isolates of rainbow trout were fi rst isolated in the fi sheries of different forms of ownership in the western regions of Ukraine (Volyn, L’viv, Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi regions). It was demonstrated that different age groups of carp are infested with the virus in the fi sheries of L’viv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Odesa regions which testifi es to a wide spread of the virus in Ukraine. Out of fi sh infectious diseases the red spot-like disease and the swim bladder infl ammation of carp, the diseases of young trout and sturgeon were detected in the investigated fi sheries of Ukraine. Conclusions. The epizootic data were used to estimate the condition of the fi sheries in Ukraine in terms of fi sh infectious diseases. An infectious pancreatic necrosis virus, new for Ukraine, was revealed. It was found to affect rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss , Walbaum, 1792) and the spread of SVCV in carp fi sheries was demonstrated. As for bacterial fi sh diseases, the decrease in the epizootic situation was described along with considerable extension of the range of species of bacterial pathogens of fi sh. Annual systematic monitoring and measures of preventing the introduction of the agents of infectious diseases are the guarantee of protection of the specialized fi sheries of Ukraine.

scholarly journals A cross-sectional study measuring contact patterns using diaries in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jackie Kleynhans ◽  
Stefano Tempia ◽  
Meredith L. McMorrow ◽  
Anne von Gottberg ◽  
Neil A. Martinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Urban Site ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns

Abstract Background Describing contact patterns is crucial to understanding infectious disease transmission dynamics and guiding targeted transmission mitigation interventions. Data on contact patterns in Africa, especially South Africa, are limited. We measured and compared contact patterns in a rural and urban community, South Africa. We assessed participant and contact characteristics associated with differences in contact rates. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study nested in a prospective household cohort study. We interviewed participants to collect information on persons in contact with for one day. We described self-reported contact rates as median number people contacted per day, assessed differences in contact rates based on participant characteristics using quantile regression, and used a Poisson model to assess differences in contact rates based on contact characteristics within age groups. We also calculated cumulative person hours in contact within age groups at different locations. Results We conducted 535 interviews (269 rural, 266 urban), with 17,252 contacts reported. The overall contact rate was 14 (interquartile range (IQR) 9–33) contacts per day. Those ≤18 years had higher contact rates at the rural site (coefficient 17, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 10–23) compared to the urban site, for those aged 14–18 years (13, 95%CI 3–23) compared to < 7 years. No differences were observed for adults. There was a strong age-based mixing, with age groups interacting more with similar age groups, but also interaction of participants of all ages with adults. Children aged 14–18 years had the highest cumulative person hours in contact (116.3 rural and 76.4 urban). Conclusions Age played an important role in the number and duration of contact events, with children at the rural site having almost double the contact rate compared to the urban site. These contact rates can be utilized in mathematical models to assess transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in similar communities.

scholarly journals Adaptive data-driven age and patch mixing in contact networks with recurrent mobility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Knight ◽  
Huiting Ma ◽  
Amir Ghasemi ◽  
Mackenzie Hamilton ◽  
Kevin Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractInfectious disease transmission models often stratify populations by age and geographic patches. Contact patterns between age groups and patches are key parameters in such models. Arenas et al. (2020) develop an approach to simulate contact patterns associated with recurrent mobility between patches, such as due to work, school, and other regular travel. Using their approach, mixing between patches is greater than mobility data alone would suggest, because individuals from patches A and B can form a contact if they meet in patch C. We build upon their approach to address three potential gaps that remain. First, our approach includes a distribution of contacts by age that is responsive to underlying age distribution of the mixing pool. Second, different age distributions by contact type are also maintained in our approach, such that changes to the numbers of different types of contacts are appropriately reflected in changes to the overall age mixing patterns. Finally, we introduce and distinguish between two mixing pools associated with each patch, with possible implications for the overall connectivity of the population: the home pool, in which contacts can only be formed with other individuals residing in the same patch; and the travel pool, in which contacts can be formed with some residents of, and any other visitors to the patch. We describe in detail the steps required to implement our approach, and present results of an example application.Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Varicella disease after introduction of varicella vaccine in the US, 1995-2000

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Noah
Keyword(s):  
Herpes Zoster ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Subsequent Development ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Routine Immunisation ◽  
The Us

Chickenpox is now one of the last of the infectious diseases of childhood that remain mostly uncontrolled. An effective vaccine has been available for many years but has not been used for routine immunisation in many countries. This is because the effect of giving the vaccine in early life on the subsequent development of herpes zoster is not known; high immunisation rates are important to ensure that the age distribution does not shift towards older age groups in whom the disease is more serious; and the disease is generally considered innocuous, especially in childhood when about 95% of infections occur.

scholarly journals Tuberculosis and HIV mortality in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
E. B. Tsybikovа ◽  
I. M. Son ◽  
A. V. Vlаdimirov
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Young Age ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Statistical Monitoring ◽  
Hiv Mortality ◽  
Leading Position

The objective: to study changes in the structure of mortality from tuberculosis and HIV infection in Russia from 2000 to 2017.Subjects and methods. The data of the Federal State Statistics Service on the mortality of the Russian population from tuberculosis and HIV infection (standardized ratio per 100,000 population) for 2000-2017 were studied. Data on the structure of patients with TB/HIV co-infection were obtained from Form no. 61 of the federal statistical monitoring for 2017.Results. In Russia, there has been a steady decrease in the mortality rate from tuberculosis, the value of which in 2017 reached 5.9 per 100,000 people. At the same time, the average values of the mortality rate from tuberculosis have shifted towards the older age groups reaching maximum values in the age group of 45 years and older. On the contrary, the analysis of mortality from HIV infection (2006-2017) detected its unprecedented increase from 1.6 to 12.6 per 100,000 population. The maximum concentration of mortality from HIV infection was observed in young age groups (35-44 years old). The increase in mortality from HIV infection was accompanied by a change in the structure of mortality from infectious diseases: the proportion of tuberculosis decreased from 79.1% (2000) to 27.4% (2017), and the proportion of HIV infection increased from 0.1% ( 2000) to 57.2% (2017). Currently, in Russia, mortality from HIV infection in young age groups has taken a leading position in the structure of causes of death from infectious diseases, displacing mortality from tuberculosis.

scholarly journals Mathematical Models for Assessing Vaccination Scenarios in Several Provinces in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Nuraini ◽  
K. Khairudin ◽  
P. Hadisoemarto ◽  
H. Susanto ◽  
A. Hasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
West Java ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractTo mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study assessed optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models included an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally could give different treatments among age groups of population. The simulation results show that the timing and period’s length of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give significant impact on the total number of casualties.

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