scholarly journals Perceptions and Framing of Risk, Uncertainty, Loss, and Failure in Entrepreneurship

Economics ◽  
2015 ◽  
pp. 126-144
Author(s):  
Kimberly M. Green
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Small Business ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Organizational Innovation ◽  
Mental Accounting ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Learning From Failure ◽  
Innovation And Change

Research indicates that perceptions of risk and loss affect decision-making. Entrepreneurship presents a context in which risk, failure, and loss frequently frame decisions. This paper presents a review of the entrepreneurship literature that is grounded in Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 article on prospect theory. The theory's contribution to the understanding of how the framing of losses affects decisions offers a useful foundation for considering streams of research in entrepreneurship and small business, given that the prospects for loss and failure are high in these endeavors. This review identifies 79 articles and organizes them into four broad themes: risk-taking perspectives of the entrepreneur and stakeholders, aspirations and reference points, organizational innovation and change, and learning from failure. The review concludes by considering the future research potential in the topics of regret, mental accounting, and an understanding of competitors.

Perceptions and Framing of Risk, Uncertainty, Loss, and Failure in Entrepreneurship

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Kimberly M. Green
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Organizational Innovation ◽  
Mental Accounting ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Learning From Failure ◽  
Innovation And Change

Research indicates that perceptions of risk and loss affect decision-making. Entrepreneurship presents a context in which risk, failure, and loss frequently frame decisions. This paper presents a review of the entrepreneurship literature that is grounded in Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 article on prospect theory. The theory's contribution to the understanding of how the framing of losses affects decisions offers a useful foundation for considering streams of research in entrepreneurship and small business, given that the prospects for loss and failure are high in these endeavors. This review identifies 79 articles and organizes them into four broad themes: risk-taking perspectives of the entrepreneur and stakeholders, aspirations and reference points, organizational innovation and change, and learning from failure. The review concludes by considering the future research potential in the topics of regret, mental accounting, and an understanding of competitors.

scholarly journals Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Xueqin Long ◽  
Liancai Zhang ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Jianjun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Actual Observation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lane Keeping

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

Dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 424-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Li ◽  
Dongxing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Parameter Interval ◽  
Grey Number

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method based on the prospect theory for dealing with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problem with three-parameter interval grey number. Design/methodology/approach First, the kernel and comparison rule of three-parameter interval grey numbers are defined, which are the basis of collecting and sorting grey numbers. Next, the prospect value function is determined in view of the decision-making information with different time points as the reference points. Then, an optimal model for solving the attribute weight and time weight is constructed based on the grey entropy principle. Findings The paper provides a dynamic grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory with three-parameter interval grey number, and the example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper has validity and rationality. Research limitations/implications If we have a better understanding of the weights of different reference points, it is possible to receive a more reasonable expression for the comprehensive prospect utility value function. Practical implications The paper provides a grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory, which can help the decision maker deal with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problems under the uncertain environment. Originality/value The paper proposes the kernel and ranking method of three-parameter interval grey number, and uses different time points as the reference points to define the prospect value function. Furthermore, this paper structures a dynamic grey interrelation decision method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory.

5. Risky choices

2017 ◽  
pp. 49-66
Author(s):  
Michelle Baddeley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Mental Accounting ◽  
Lottery Ticket ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
The Road ◽  
Risky Choices ◽  
Accounting Model ◽  
Isolation Effects

When we decide to cross the road, buy a lottery ticket, or invest our money, the decision involves risk and uncertainty. ‘Risky choices’ looks at how economists usually think of risk as quantifiable—in the form of expected utility theory—but behavioural economists challenge this understanding of risk. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky developed prospect theory, which could incorporate the anomalous behaviour identified by the Allais and Ellsberg Paradoxes. They argued that any decision-making theory should be able to explain the certainty, reflection, and isolation effects. Alternatives to prospect theory include Richard Thaler’s mental accounting model and the regret theory of Graham Loomes and Robert Sugden.

scholarly journals Using Insights from Prospect Theory to Enhance Sustainable Decision Making by Agribusinesses in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimena Gonzalez-Ramirez ◽  
Poonam Arora ◽  
Guillermo Podesta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Gains And Losses

Farm production often involves family-owned agribusinesses where decisions are made by households or individuals, not corporate managers. As these decisions have important economic, environmental, and social implications, decision-making processes must be understood to foster sustainable agricultural production. Decision experiments, involving lotteries, targeting farmers in the Argentine Pampas were used to estimate prospect theory (PT) parameters. Results suggest that decisions under risk are better represented by prospect theory than by expected utility (EU) theory: Decision makers treat gains and losses differently and use subjective probabilities of outcomes; they are quite loss averse and are more likely to overweigh probabilities of infrequent events, such as large droughts or floods. Statistical testing revealed heterogeneity in the risk tied to land tenure (land owners vs. renters) and agribusiness roles (farmers vs. technical advisors). Perceptions of risk, probability, and outcomes played a large role in the sustainability of production. Due to a strong desire to avoid losses, decision makers have a greater short term focus: Immediate economic outcomes are more salient, and environmental and social investments are framed as costs rather than long-term gains. This research can help design policies, programs, and tools that assist agribusinesses in managing better contradictions across the triple bottom line to ensure greater sustainability.

scholarly journals Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhang ◽  
Zhigeng Fang ◽  
Xiaqing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Psychological Behavior ◽  
Ideal Situation

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts’ risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts’ psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts’ evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

scholarly journals Dynamic Hybrid Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Problem Based on Reference Point Adaptation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wei-Min Ma ◽  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Bing-Zhen Sun ◽  
Neng-Li Wang ◽  
Hai-Yan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Dynamic Hybrid

Individuals’ decision-making depends on reference points in prospect theory. This research considers the bounded rationality of decision makers and constructs a dynamic hybrid multiple attribute decision-making (DHMADM) model. Unlike existing models, the DHMADM model focuses on dynamic reference point, which has been proven in prospect theory. This research presents the effects of reference point adaptation on decision-making through model calculation. The optimal choice of decision makers changed with the change of the reference point in the DHMADM model. By experiment, we found that the DHMADM model considering reference point adaptation can more accurately express the final choice of decision makers than models only considering the static reference point.

MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING WITH MULTIPLE FORMATS OF ATTRIBUTE ASPIRATIONS: A METHOD BASED ON PROSPECT THEORY

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 711-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHI-PING FAN ◽  
XIAO ZHANG ◽  
YAN-RU ZHAO ◽  
FA-DONG CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Ranking Of Alternatives ◽  
Simple Additive Weighting ◽  
Gain Loss

In this paper, a method based on prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem with three formats of attribute aspirations. According to the idea of prospect theory, reference points concerning attributes are first determined. Then, for the three formats of attribute aspirations, the calculation formulae of alternatives' gains/losses concerning attributes are given. By calculating each alternative's gain/loss, a gain–loss matrix is constructed. Further, using the value function from prospect theory and the simple additive weighting method, the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated. Based on the obtained overall prospect values, a ranking of alternatives can be determined. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Multi-stage emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Weihua Liu ◽  
Hui Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dynamic Adjustment ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
The Impact

Aiming at the problem where the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers’ emotions may lead to different decision-making results, this research proposes a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with the emotion updating mechanism of decision makers. The method of setting dynamic reference points under the influence of decision-makers' emotions is given in this study, and the scenario value of each stage of emergency is calculated by using cumulative prospect theory, so as to describe the emotion renewal mechanism of decision-makers. The scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the prospect value, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Taking Sichuan Tibet emergency rescue in China as an case analysis, the scientific rationality of the theory proposed in this paper is verified.

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